Scottish Sunday: Underestimated Risk of Nuclear Disaster in Clyde

The Danger of a 9/11-Style Attack on Trident Base

A risk assessment conducted by the Ministry of Defence (MoD) reveals that the potential for a major nuclear disaster resulting from a 9/11-style attack on the Trident base on the Clyde has been greatly underestimated. Internal MoD documents, obtained by the Scottish Sunday, highlight the vulnerability of the shiplift, which is used to lift nuclear-armed submarines out of the water at the Faslane naval dockyard. These documents indicate that a plane crash could lead to the collapse of the shiplift and subsequent weapon ignition/detonation, creating catastrophic consequences.

The Vulnerability of the Shiplift

Nuclear experts argue that the shiplift is a prime target for terrorists due to its exposure of submarines and their Trident nuclear-tipped missiles. The collapse of the shiplift, triggered by an aircraft crash, would have severe ramifications. Currently, four Vanguard-class submarines, each carrying up to 48 Trident warheads and weighing 16,000 tonnes, are regularly serviced using the shiplift. Additionally, the lift is occupied for about 100 days per year for the maintenance of other vessels.

The Consequences of an Attack

An accident assessment conducted by consultants Atkins in 2003, which was released under freedom of information law, highlights the significant underestimation of the consequences of an attack on the shiplift. The report suggests that the probability of the shiplift platform collapsing as a result of a plane crash should be considered a virtual certainty. It also recommends a reassessment of the risks, including calculations for the spread of radioactive contamination after an attack.

The Atkins report further identifies other risks that have been downplayed, including the hazard of spontaneous ignition of propellant. The report asserts that there was no mention of this credible hazard, despite it being a significant concern. The propellant carried on the submarines is a form of solid rocket fuel known as nitrate ester, which is classified as an explosive. Furthermore, the report suggests that the likelihood of a missile accidentally exploding, known as a "cook-off," should be re-evaluated.

The Concerns of Experts and Advocacy Groups

In 1990, a report for the US House Armed Services Committee expressed concern that a "submarine loading accident" could result in plutonium dispersal or a nuclear yield. Independent nuclear consultant John Large shares these concerns and warns of the risk of a small nuclear explosion, known as a fizzle, causing the dispersal of plutonium over a wide area. The Scottish Campaign for Nuclear Disarmament also raises alarm over these risk assessments.

John Ainslie, the coordinator for the Scottish Campaign for Nuclear Disarmament, calls attention to the transparency of the Faslane facility, making it difficult to conceal the shiplift's existence and use by Trident submarines. He emphasizes the need for heightened security measures to prevent a terrorist attack with catastrophic consequences.

The Importance of Hotel Safety in High-Risk Areas

While the risk of a 9/11-style attack on the Trident base is a pressing concern, it is crucial to address the security and safety measures in other areas as well, such as hotels. Ensuring the safety of guests and staff in high-risk areas is of paramount importance. Hotels should implement comprehensive security protocols that are constantly reviewed and updated to mitigate potential threats.

Some key measures that hotels in high-risk areas can implement include:

1. Enhanced Security Personnel

Hotels should employ well-trained security personnel who can identify and respond to potential threats effectively. These personnel should undergo regular training and have clear communication channels with local law enforcement agencies.

2. Advanced Surveillance Systems

Installing state-of-the-art surveillance systems, including CCTV cameras, at strategic locations within the hotel premises can help monitor for any suspicious activities. Regular maintenance and monitoring of these systems are vital to ensure their effectiveness.

3. Access Control Measures

Implementing access control measures, such as key card access to guest rooms and restricted entry to certain areas, can help prevent unauthorized individuals from gaining access to sensitive areas within the hotel.

4. Emergency Response Plans

Hotels should have well-defined emergency response plans in place, including evacuation procedures and communication protocols. Regular drills and training for staff members can ensure a swift and coordinated response in case of an emergency.

5. Collaboration with Local Authorities

Establishing strong relationships with local law enforcement agencies and intelligence services can provide hotels with valuable support and information regarding potential threats and security updates.

Conclusion

The underestimated risk of a 9/11-style attack on the Trident base highlights the need for a reassessment of security measures and risk mitigation strategies. The vulnerability of the shiplift and the potential consequences of an attack on the base underscore the importance of comprehensive security measures in high-risk areas. Hotels operating in such locations should prioritize guest and staff safety by implementing robust security protocols and staying vigilant to mitigate any potential threats.