What will Blair do if Kerry wins?

If the US embraces John Kerry as its next president, how will our own Prime Minister – who has stood so close to Bush – react?

Introduction

Imagine that two weeks on Tuesday John Kerry becomes President-elect of the United States. It will probably have been a long night of uncertainty. There may have been arguments about voting machines, although the hanging chads, our old friends in Florida, have gone. Daylight will have come before the result is clear. But picture the scene in Boston as Kerry gets the concession from George W Bush. The congratulations flood in. There is a phone call from Downing Street. What does Tony Blair say? Although in these circumstances Kerry would be exhilarated enough to gush at anyone, this is an awkward moment. Blair has an image in the United States that is sharper than any other prime minister’s since the second world war, probably including Margaret Thatcher’s. His celebrity after September 11, 2001, when he found the words that America wanted to hear, turned into a much more brittle political commodity. For everyone who sidles up to you to confide that the Prime Minister is awesome (or contributes to the surreal website www.thankyoutony.com) there is someone else, on the Democratic side of politics, who confesses bewilderment, and often quite a bit of rage, at Blair’s strengthening hand for Bush in his Iraq travails.

Blair's Role with Kerry

A number of people around Kerry are close to Gordon Brown, and there would be much mutual stroking afterwards. They’d remember with irritation the moment at the Republican convention when the mere mention of Blair’s name in Bush’s acceptance speech brought 15,000 people to their feet, and the countless times when the President has defended himself against the accusation of unilateralism, or a disdain for old allies, with the useful retort: “What about Tony Blair?” Yet these interesting speculations tend to conceal the truth about Blair and America after November 2. Whoever wins, and whatever feelings swirl around the end of this extraordinary contest, Blair is indispensable. For Bush, he remains the ally who took the road to Baghdad when his own party, a majority of his electorate, and many Americans who’d fêted him after 9/11 wanted him to step aside. For Kerry, he would be an important pillar in the relationship with Europe and the UN, which his foreign policy would be designed to repair in his first few months in the White House. However rough the approach to his own election campaign might be, whatever his standing at home, he will remain the partner who has to be accommodated.

The Role of Blair in International Relations

To his critics here, that may seem strange. Robin Cook has always argued that Blair’s obsession with the “special relationship” (for Cook does think of it as a dangerous idée fixe) warped his judgement. When Blair argues that it was important to maintain some closeness to Bush to influence American policy, the sceptics point to his meagre rewards – little more than a token American commitment to the UN process and to the hopes enshrined in the “road map” that was supposed to lead to a two-state solution in Israel-Palestine, the twin “conditions” which were Blair’s defence to his colleagues of his support for war in Iraq. They believe what Blair cannot admit publicly – even if he wanted to – that American policy in post-conflict Iraq has been what one senior Foreign Office figure describes privately as a catastrophe, knowing that it is a common Whitehall view.

Blair's Strategy with Bush and Kerry

Yet it is missing the point to conclude that Blair is weakened in Washington as a result. Either in a second Bush term or with Kerry, Blair will have a role to play. Away from the speculation about how long he’d stay in office in a third term, or how dangerously low his personal popularity might sink, the interesting question is how he would try to fashion the next phase of the relationship. He knows that there is no escape from the shadow of Iraq: last month’s leaked Foreign Office and Downing Street assessments made it clear how gloomy that prognosis has been for at least a year. So what would he do?

Breathing life into Israel-Palestinian talks

With Bush, Blair is planning a genuine effort to breathe life into Israel-Palestinian talks, whose pulse has not been detectable for at least 18 months. Apart from his deep embarrassment at Guantanamo Bay and the abuses at Abu Ghraib prison, along with the Ken Bigley tragedy, nothing has been more difficult for him than to stand in the White House Rose Garden earlier this year listening to Bush praise Ariel Sharon’s “disengagement” plan, and finding himself echoing it. Thirty-five years of British policy was turned on its head, and Blair was aware that the moment seemed to encapsulate for his critics the consequences of his alliance with Bush: it had become so close that he had lost the power to resist. He is now planning to try to prove them wrong, and tells colleagues that he has Bush’s promise of a genuine diplomatic push.

Managing the crisis in Iraq

Blair might find some appetite for a revived peace effort with the Israelis and Palestinians. But he faces another problem: Iran. He has pursued a programme of active diplomacy with Tehran for years, and has always avoided the demonisation that is Washington’s common currency. If a second Bush administration were to develop an aggressive policy towards Iran (though no-one serious in Washington believes military action would be contemplated after the experience of Iraq), Blair would want to take a step back.

Creating a bridge between America and Europe

With Kerry, after an initial coolness which an incoming administration might want to imply, by way of making a political point, he would be able to make a virtue of that kind of diplomacy. He would even be able to demonstrate that he developed his relationship with Bush in order to be a bridge between America and Europe, which would otherwise have crumbled away. It is a claim treated with some caution by colleagues, who believe his absorption in Washington was more personal commitment (and “conviction”) than a piece of diplomatic strategy, but Kerry’s natural internationalism plays to Blair’s strengths. The UN would become respectable in Washington again, the language of alliance would become fashionable, and Blair would be able to cast his Middle East policy once again in the terms which he used after 9/11, making it appear an effort at progress rather than an assault on a shadowy and little-understood enemy.

Conclusion

Blair will remain America’s friend, because that commitment has become a pillar of his premiership. But with either Bush or Kerry, he is going to have to start again to prove that it is a friendship that brings him power, not weakness.

Hotels and Relaxation

Introduction

When it comes to planning a trip, one of the key factors to consider is accommodation. Whether you're traveling for business or pleasure, finding the right hotel can greatly enhance your overall experience. Scotland offers a wide range of hotels that cater to different tastes and budgets, ensuring that every traveler can find their perfect retreat.

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Budget-Friendly Options

For budget-conscious travelers, Scotland offers a range of affordable accommodation options. From budget hotels to guesthouses and bed and breakfasts, there are plenty of choices that provide comfortable and clean rooms without breaking the bank. These establishments are often family-run, offering a warm and welcoming atmosphere that makes guests feel right at home. Budget-friendly options are an excellent choice for those looking to explore Scotland on a shoestring budget.

Your Ideal Scottish Escape

Whether you're embarking on a romantic getaway, a family vacation, or a solo adventure, Scotland offers a diverse selection of hotels to suit every traveler's needs. From luxurious retreats to cozy hideaways, there is a perfect accommodation option waiting for you. So, start planning your Scottish escape and embrace the unique charm and beauty of this captivating country.