The Final Means of Persuasion...Bribes

The Diplomatic Battle: George W Bush is carrying a big stick -- and a large chequebook

Even as President Bush issued the latest in a long series of ultimatums to the UN Security Council, the United States has been working on a series of possible drafts for a second resolution that would provide UN backing for a US-led invasion of Iraq.

Talking Tough and Offering Incentives

Last week, the US stepped up its policy of talking tough while carrying a big chequebook. President Bush warned the council to "make up its mind soon" over military action, or the US would sidestep the UN and launch an attack with a coalition of allies. Concurrently, diplomats were promising everything from increased economic and military aid to moderate Arab states, to a share of Iraq's oil reserves to fretful Europeans.

The Franco-American Tango

Down at the UN, the French-US relationship continued to be tested, but there was little talk about a French veto of a second resolution. French President Jacques Chirac, in phone conversations with Bush on Thursday and Friday, indicated that he wanted the weapons inspectors to continue their work, but left the door open to supporting an eventual war.

Counting Votes at the Security Council

To pass a new resolution, nine votes in favor are needed, without any veto from permanent members. The council consists of 5 permanent members and 10 rotating countries. All remaining members have either trade links or receive military and economic aid from the US.

Analysts predict that self-interest will guide the decision-making process. The French are seeking concessions to protect their oil contracts with Iraq. Russia and China, who have veto power, may abstain or vote with the US and Britain. Non-permanent members are expected to align with US and British positions after Hans Blix's upcoming report. The US and Britain argue that Iraq has already breached Resolution 1441.

Will Bribes Secure Support for War?

Meanwhile, behind the scenes, the US is ramping up financial incentives to secure backing from key Arab states. The Iranians have engaged in secret meetings with White House officials, apparently receptive to US proposals in exchange for their cooperation.

Egypt is also seeking additional aid to cover the possible costs of war and is pushing for a bilateral free-trade package. Other countries, such as Jordan, Turkey, and Israel, are also pushing for more aid and benefits from the US in exchange for their support.

But the question remains whether these costly efforts to buy support will truly increase the security of the American people.

Potential Ramifications

Skeptics argue that the tilt towards war against Iraq may push al-Qaeda and Iraq closer together, as Saddam Hussein may find value in aligning with a common enemy. Critics of US foreign policy claim that the US is inadvertently creating conditions for al-Qaeda and Iraq to form dangerous alliances.

Moreover, the underlying drive for the US administration is clear: Saddam Hussein must be toppled. The US is refusing to believe that inspections can lead to disarmament or compliance. Iraq would serve as a centerpiece for a new US policy in the Middle East that prioritizes US interests.

However, the international community, represented by the UN, seems powerless to stop the US from pursuing its goals. The new world order seeks the UN's endorsement of the US' foreign policy agenda, even if it means bypassing inconvenient treaties and international law.

The Hotel Dilemma and the Shadow of War

As the diplomatic battle intensifies, the effects of an impending war are already being felt in the hotel industry. Hotels in major cities around the world are grappling with uncertainty and witnessing changes in bookings and occupancy rates.

Business travelers, particularly those from countries aligned with the US, are becoming cautious about travel plans due to concerns about security and potential disruptions caused by the war. This has led to a decline in corporate bookings and uncertainty for hoteliers.

On the other hand, there is a surge in bookings from journalists, diplomats, and foreign correspondents who are closely following the developments at the UN and in the Middle East. The demand for accommodations in cities like New York, London, and Paris is increasing, as these destinations become hubs for media coverage and diplomatic activities.

Hoteliers are grappling with the delicate balance of meeting the needs of journalists and diplomats while trying to maintain a sense of normalcy for other guests. They are implementing additional security measures and developing contingency plans in case of disruptions.

Additionally, hotels in regions that are potential targets or bordering the conflict zone are experiencing a significant decline in tourism due to safety concerns. This has resulted in financial strain for many establishments, forcing them to consider alternative marketing strategies and diversification of their target markets.

As the political climate remains uncertain, the hotel industry will continue to navigate the challenges associated with a potential war, adapt to changing demands, and hope for a quick resolution that restores stability and confidence in international travel.