Scottish Sunday

A Scandal at the UN: Potential Fuel for US Hawks Ahead of June Deadline for Democracy

Trevor Royle reports

As the clock ticks down towards the handover of power in Iraq, reinforcements are waiting in the wings to bolster a sorely tried US coalition still reeling from a week-long succession of calamitous setbacks. The first will arrive by way of badly needed troops on the ground, to provide cover for the departure of the 1300-strong Spanish contingent. The second comes by way of the revelation that thousands of millions of dollars found their way into Saddam Hussein’s pockets from the UN’s much criticised oil-for-food programme. Both have their uses. The soldiers will buy some time for the hard-pressed security forces in Iraq, while the allegations of widespread corruption will give solace to US hawks who are wary of any UN involvement in Iraq.

Long Road Ahead

With 10 weeks remaining before the planned transfer of sovereignty to the Iraqi people, the country still has a long way to go before it recovers its equilibrium and the hard facts bring little comfort. The cost of the operation is running at around $4.7 billion a month, but the returns continue to be meagre. In the last few days, suicide bombers in Basra left 68 people dead, many of them children traveling to school; Moqtada al-Sadr’s Shi’ite supporters in Najaf are failing to heed demands to hand over their weapons and are threatening to unleash suicide bombers against coalition forces; a senior US commander has admitted that over half of the newly raised Iraqi security forces cannot be trusted.

Unsettled Territory

Belatedly, the US has recognized that it was wrong to dismantle what remained of Saddam’s regime and has started reinstating Ba’ath Party members in an attempt to restore order to the country. However, Iraq’s infrastructure remains in a hopeless muddle, its inefficiency a major irritant for the population. Rising anger at the ineptitude of the Coalition Provisional Authority (CPA), now cruelly derided as the organization that “Can’t Provide Anything,” is reaching its peak. The persistent violence overshadows every activity and jeopardizes the gains made by the US coalition’s presence on the ground.

Increasing Need for Troops

April has been a cruel month for the US Central Command, with over 100 soldiers or marines killed in combat. The attrition rate has persuaded commanders on the ground to demand the deployment of more foot soldiers to reinforce the 135,000 already present. In a controversial move, 25,000 soldiers of the experienced 1st Armoured Division have had their tours of duty extended from six to nine months. Britain will also be asked to supply an additional 1500 troops to take the place of the Spanish contingent. If acted upon, this will involve the deployment of an additional two infantry battalions, bringing the British contribution to just over 10,000 troops — a move that could leave the army dangerously overstretched.

The Fragile Path Ahead

The situation on the ground causes concern at the very moment when the coalition authorities are keen to end the violence well in advance of the transfer of power. The date of June 30 is non-negotiable, according to the White House. However, the trust in the Coalition Provisional Authority is limited, and there is a dangerous split in Shia ranks between al-Sadr and the more moderate Ayatollah Ali Husaini Sistani. The presence of various potential trouble makers further adds to the complexity of the situation. The United Nations envoy, Lakhdar Brahimi, has arrived in Baghdad as a go-between charged with the responsibility of creating an interim authority. However, the scandal surrounding the oil-for-food program could hinder Brahimi's plans and the ability of the UN to play a significant role in shaping the future of Iraq.