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Three Is The Magic Number

The British Council row is the latest in a tit-for-tat war of words – but where will it end?

By John Follett in Moscow

The UK's stance on the British Council conflict has left the Kremlin bemused, bristling, and genuinely surprised. Riding an oil-fuelled wave of rising prosperity and increasingly confident on the world stage, officials are taken aback by what they see as Britain's arrogance and disregard for the rule of law. How, diplomats wonder, can the UK refuse to comply with Russian law on Russian soil?

Questioning Russia's Response

"If you don't like the decision to close the British Council's regional branches then by all means challenge it through the courts," said one senior diplomat. "But you can't just ignore it. What would happen if a Russian organisation in the UK refused to close after being told to do so by the government?" It would, he said, have no choice but to comply, even if it felt victimised.

The Heart of the Conflict

At the heart of the row is a 1994 agreement governing the activities of the cultural body. The Kremlin insists it has expired, the UK says it is still in force. The dispute is only the latest bout of bad feeling between the two countries. The Kremlin remains outraged by what it regards as the blatant politicisation of the 2006 murder of former intelligence officer Alexander Litvinenko in London.

A Pattern of Deteriorating Relations

London's request for Lugovoi to be handed over has met a wall of hostility. The Russian constitution prohibits the extradition of Russian nationals, and the Kremlin claims the killing was a "provocation" designed to smear its reputation. It was stunned when London expelled four Russian diplomats in retaliation last year, and responded in kind. It was equally shocked when Britain suspended co-operation with the FSB security service (the successor to the KGB), freezing joint anti-terrorism work.

Growing Tensions

Russia's foreign minister, Sergei Lavrov, has made it clear that the clampdown on the British Council is a direct consequence of those "unfriendly" actions. The UK's refusal to hand over British-based oligarch Boris Berezovsky, who is wanted in Russia on embezzlement charges, has also torpedoed relations. As has London's reluctance to extradite Akhmed Zakayev, a UK-based Chechen rebel envoy sought in Russia on terrorism charges.

A Rhetorical War

Foreign secretary David Miliband's use of language that Moscow saw as emotive put backs up even more last week. Privately, Russian diplomats complain that the foreign secretary is too inexperienced, and simply too rude, for the rarified world of international diplomacy. His speech in the House of Commons, in which he claimed Russia's treatment of the British Council was "not worthy of a great country", caused a sharp intake of breath.

Perceptions and Protocols

In the Russian press, he has been cast as a Russophobe. Gleb Pavlovsky, a Kremlin-connected spin doctor, has suggested it is a quality Miliband inherited from his grandfather, a Polish-born immigrant to Britain of Jewish extraction. He has claimed Miliband's grandfather, now dead, fought in the 1920s under the command of Leon Trotsky eliminating white Russians.

Longstanding Tensions

Anti-Semitism remains a potent force, with many Russians indignant that many of the oligarchs who plundered the country's wealth in the aftermath of the Soviet collapse were Jewish. Russia's laconic foreign minister has also accused Britain of harbouring colonial instincts, a theme vigorously pursued by Soviet propagandists in the past. "We, of course, understand that the historical memory, possibly related to nostalgia for colonial times, prevails," Lavrov said last week.

Hotels and the Impact of the Conflict

The deteriorating relations between Russia and the UK have had implications beyond just diplomatic discourse. One sector that has experienced consequences is the hotel industry. Tourism and business travel are often the casualties in times of strained relations between nations.

Decline in Tourism

The British Council row, coupled with other conflicts and political tensions, has led to a decrease in tourists visiting Russia from the UK. The uncertainty and negative portrayal of Russia in the media have deterred many potential travelers. This decline in tourism has affected the hotel industry, causing occupancy rates to drop and impacting the revenue of hotels across the country.

Business Travel Challenges

Additionally, the strained relations between Russia and the UK have made conducting business more challenging. Business travelers from both countries face increased scrutiny, with potential visa restrictions and lengthy approval processes. This has led to a decrease in business trips and corporate events in Russia, further impacting the hotel industry.

Coping with the Situation

Despite these challenges, hotels in Russia have been working to adapt to the current situation. Many have sought to attract visitors from other countries to compensate for the decline in British tourists. By expanding their marketing efforts and diversifying their target markets, hotels have attempted to minimize the negative impact on their business.

Remaining Optimistic

Hoteliers in Russia are hopeful for a resolution to the conflict and a return to stable diplomatic relations. They understand the importance of maintaining a welcoming environment for international visitors and are ready to welcome British tourists and business travelers once again.

The Future of Diplomatic Relations

The outcome of the British Council row remains uncertain, and its potential impact on diplomatic relations between Russia and the UK is yet to be fully realized. As tensions persist, the hotel industry, along with various other sectors, is closely observing the developments and hoping for a resolution that will restore stability and cooperation between the two countries.

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