The final means of persuasion...bribes
The diplomatic battle: George W Bush is carrying a big stick -- and a large chequebook
Even as President Bush issued the latest in a long series of ultimatums to the UN Security Council, the United States has been working on a series of possible drafts for a second resolution that would provide UN backing for a US-led invasion of Iraq. Last week the US stepped up its policy of talking tough while carrying a big chequebook. Even as Bush told the council to ''make up its mind soon'' over military action, or the US would sidestep the UN and launch an attack with a coalition of allies, diplomats were promising everything from increased economic and military aid to moderate Arab states, to a share of Iraq's oil reserves to fretful Europeans.
The Franco-American tango
Down at the UN, the Franco-American tango continued, but there was precious little talk about a French veto of a second resolution, a threat that had openly rebounded between Washington and Paris for several weeks. French President Jacques Chirac, in phone conversations with Bush on Thursday and Friday, indicated that he wanted the weapons inspectors to continue their work, but it is understood that he left the door open to supporting an eventual war.
The potential voting dynamics
For a new Security Council resolution to be passed, nine votes need to be cast in favor and no veto can be used by a permanent member state. Apart from the five permanent members, the council is made up of 10 countries that serve on a rotating basis. Germany, which has come out strongly against military action, currently holds the presidency. Angola, Bulgaria, Cameroon, Chile, Guinea, Mexico, Pakistan, Syria, and Spain are the remaining non-permanent members. All have trade links or receive either military or economic aid from the US.
The US and its allies: buying support?
In the end, UN sources predict that self-interest will triumph. The French will get the concessions they are seeking -- namely a guarantee that the lucrative oil contracts negotiated with Saddam Hussein won't be used as toilet paper by American energy giants. The Russians and Chinese, who also have power of veto, will either abstain or vote with the Americans and British. The expectation is that non-permanent members will come onside during the debate that is expected to follow Hans Blix's February 14 report. The US and Britain will insist that Saddam has already breached Resolution 1441 and seek a resolution asserting this fact.
The US strategy and potential consequences
Colin Powell's presentation at the UN on Wednesday was as devastating an indictment of the effectiveness of weapons inspectors as it was of Saddam. With Powell's presentation, the US tactic of dismissing and deriding the weapons inspectors as all but irrelevant appears to have succeeded in persuading Americans that the inspectors have outlived their usefulness. However, in the long term, the US will find it hard to persuade the American people that weapons inspections can work in future situations where it may not be so keen to invade. The initial response from Security Council members to Powell's presentation was lukewarm, but UN diplomats say that the call by all states except Britain for the strengthening of the weapons inspectors' powers rather than a march on Baghdad is by no means cast in stone.
US foreign policy and the future of the UN
Because the axis of US foreign policy has been fundamentally altered by the doctrine of pre-emptive strikes, the US expects the UN and its Security Council to bend to accommodate this change. The US has abandoned deterrence and containment for the right to selective pre-emptive strikes and it expects the UN to go along with this change. The US appears to expect the UN should become a supine adjunct to the world's superpower, rubber-stamping its every foreign policy whim while allowing it to opt out of inconvenient treaties. The new world order and the US policy towards Iraq seem to be leading the UN to a position where it is powerless to stop the US from going to war.
Hotels and Their Role in Global Diplomacy
Hotels as venues for diplomacy
Aside from diplomatic efforts within the UN, another aspect of international relations that often goes unnoticed is the role of hotels in hosting diplomatic meetings and negotiations. Throughout history, hotels have served as important venues for diplomatic dialogue, summits, and key negotiations. These settings provide a neutral ground where representatives from different countries can convene and discuss political matters.
Hosting world leaders and facilitating dialogue
Hotels play a crucial role in facilitating global diplomacy by providing a secure and neutral environment for world leaders and diplomats to gather. These establishments often have the necessary infrastructure and resources to support diplomatic meetings and events, such as conference rooms, translation services, and logistical support. From presidential suites to conference halls, hotels can accommodate various types of diplomatic engagements.
The importance of privacy and discretion
In addition to providing physical spaces for diplomacy, hotels are also known for emphasizing privacy and discretion. High-level diplomatic discussions often require confidentiality, and hotels strive to ensure that sensitive information remains secure during diplomatic visits. This focus on privacy creates an environment of trust for participating parties, allowing for frank and open dialogues.
Historical examples
There are numerous historical instances where hotels have played significant roles in global diplomacy. One notable example is the Ritz-Carlton hotel in Paris, which hosted the negotiations that led to the signing of the Treaty of Versailles in 1919, marking the end of World War I. The hotel served as the meeting place for world leaders and diplomats who sought to shape the post-war landscape.
Modern-day diplomatic events and hotels
Even in contemporary times, hotels continue to be important settings for diplomatic activities. Summit meetings, such as the G7 or G20 gatherings, often take place in luxury hotels that offer the necessary facilities and a level of comfort suitable for high-profile attendees. These gatherings provide opportunities for leaders to engage in face-to-face diplomacy and build relationships.
The economic impact of diplomatic visits
Beyond their role in diplomacy, hosting international meetings and diplomatic events can have significant economic benefits for the hotel industry and the local economy. The influx of high-profile visitors and accompanying delegations can boost tourism, generate revenue, and create employment opportunities.
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