DOUBTS OVER Forth Ports's future as an independent company are likely to grow tomorrow when chief executive Charles Hammond unveils details of the latest valuation of its property holdings in Edinburgh's docklands.
A bleak property market means some analysts fear the asset value of the Leith-based plc could fall, making it more vulnerable to takeover.
Last year DTZ Debenham Tie Leung said the group's development assets had risen in value by 6% to £272 million in 2006, with other port-related properties worth around £164m.
Monday's figures will be read with close interest by US-controlled Babcock & Brown which recently acquired a near-20% stake in Forth, sparking speculation that the UK's last independent ports operators could be the next Scottish company to fall to overseas buyers.
But transport analyst Mark McVicar at Dresdner Kleinwort dismissed the fears over property valuations, saying: "The valuations could be up or down 10% as far as I can tell but the plain fact is that the property will be worth a great deal more once planning permission goes through and development starts."
He believes the group's assets could be worth as much as £1.37 billion to a bidder, compared with Forth's current stock-market value of £900m, and says the shares should rise from under £20 each to his target price of £26.
First uplift is expected in about three months, when the the City of Edinburgh Council is expected to approve Forth's First Village plan for Leith Docklands, which will double the size of the Ocean Terminal and will include two new towers of luxury flats. This 10-year project is part of Forth's long-term plan for nine village developments on the waterfront.
So far, Forth is understood to have spent around £115m building roads and infrastructures for its developments and last year called a halt to major land sales in order to reap full benefits. The impact of this will be shown tomorrow when the group is expected to announce a dip in annual pre-tax profits from £56m to around £29.5m or so in the absence of the usual gains from property sales.
The overall fall, though, disguises a robust performance by the ports side over the second half of 2007, helped by strong business at Tilbury. The group's ports around the Firth of Forth will show a recovery and the directors will point to rising container business at Grangemouth, increased coal volumes at Leith and a surge in activity at Hound Point due to the development of the Buzzard field. There are also hopes the group could announce progress in plans to use land at Dundee for a business making parts for the wind turbine industry.
Most followers believe the directors will issue a confident trading statement and a modest increase in the dividend to around 47.5p.