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August 22, 2008 Est 1999 Scotland's award-winning independent newspaper
RBS knights under pressure as bank set to lose £1 billion
Edinburgh giant expected to be among worst hit as banks report half-year results
By John Phelps

PRESSURE FOR change at the top of Royal Bank of Scotland is set to intensify in the coming weeks amid reports that the Edinburgh giant plunged into losses of well over £1 billion in the opening half of this year.

Confirmation of the scale of the downturn is due on August 8 when chairman Sir Tom McKillop and chief executive Sir Fred Goodwin present their interim results. But with rumours rife that RBS is also struggling to sell its insurance business and the Australian arm of ABN Amro, the results are likely to round off a bank reporting season expected to be dismal when it gets under way this week.

This will include RBS's Edinburgh rival HBOS on Friday, where profits are set to halve following rumours it is being stalked by investment bank JP Morgan and also Spanish banking giant BBVA.

The RBS predictions come at the end of a miserable year for Goodwin and McKillop, who caused a storm when they became the first to tap banking shareholders for new funds after being criticised for an ill-timed purchase of ABN Amro ahead of the credit crunch.

Already, one major investor, Mark Burgess at Legal & General, has said the RBS knights have "a lot to answer for". It is believed he will be pressing for a timetable for at least one resignation.

While few analysts are prepared to forecast the actual half-year result, James Eden and the team at Exane BNP Paribas have stuck their necks out to predict an overall loss of around £1.25bn, after taking account of a £5.9bn writedown on US mortgages and further impairments of some £1.4bn.

Before these charges, they believe underlying profits may have slipped about 10% to around £4.9bn as financial transactions have dried up, although they will be looking for a further update on the bad debts outlook for the important American Citizen/Charter One banking operation and progress on the Australian and insurance operations.

While RBS's experience has been particularly painful, its rivals have also suffered. Overall profitability of the Big Five is expected to fall from £28.7bn to £15.1bn - a 47% decline.

The fall in profits and increased provisions for bad debts explain why the banking sector has been seeking fresh funds, in a rush started by RBS with its £12bn cash call and concluding with the poorly received HBOS £4bn rights issue.

Between them, the banks have raised about £20bn, although Capital Economics has said that the high street lenders may have to further scale back mortgage and loan offers to protect their balance sheets.

The RBS interims look set to wrap up a dismal interim reporting season for the Big Five. News of the biggest profits setback is expected from HBOS, which is due to report on Friday, amid speculation chief executive Andy Hornby could receive a continental takeover after the embarrassing flop of the rights issue.

The group has suffered from the twin effects of the slump in mortgage business at the Halifax and its lending to the property and housing sectors, which makes up about 38% of its corporate portfolio. The Exane BNP Paribas team believes profits may have halved to below £1.5bn in the opening half of this year.

Total writedowns and impairments are expected to be more than £2.3bn - up from just more than £1bn last time - and there are fears this could worsen in the second half as a result of the continuing fall in property values.

Lloyds TSB, which kicks off the reporting season on Thursday, is expected to show a jump in its own charge provisions from £890 million to around £1.5bn, and reported profits could drop by about 30% to just short of £1.4bn.

The group has held up relatively well so far because much of its funding comes cheaply through customer deposits. However, there are concerns it may have stored up trouble through its heavy sales of debt protection policies at a time of rising unemployment.

Lloyds earns only about 2% of its cash overseas and there has been speculation it could be planning a foreign acquisition to lessen its dependence on the UK economy.

Barclays Bank is expected to disclose a 28% drop in its own interim profits to just short of £3bn, with the shortfall reflecting an estimated £1.7bn of writedowns for its Barclaycard and credit market operations.

Analysts will be particularly keen for further news on the group's dividend policy at the August 7 results presentation, after directors promised to maintain the cash payment at 34p for the foreseeable future - at the current share price investors can pick up £9.70 in annual dividends for every £100 invested in the shares.

HSBC, with its spread of global activities, is likely to show it is not immune from the general pain, with news expected of a profits downturn from £14.2bn to around £10.5bn on August 4, according to the Exane BNP Paribas team.

The shortfall is entirely down to a switch from profits to losses at the group's US operations with other parts of the business expected to report higher figures.

The group should also enjoy some useful windfall gains from the recent sale of its Canary Wharf tower and the disposal of French regional banks.

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Posted by: iainm, edinburgh on 7:41am Sun 27 Jul 08
Fred the Shred started to believe his own propoganda .......the real question is who will own control of the Scotish banks when this is over.
Posted by: tolduso, glasgow scotland on 9:07am Sun 27 Jul 08
as a former shareholder, i wrote to CUR FRED and predicted that the tripartite deal was vainglorious and would only suit the Spaniards in the long run.
since then he has picked the pockets of shareholders through the rights issue and has still not solved the problem.
now he is attempting to offload the aquired liabilities at a loss andsell off the company crown jewels and family silver, namely direct line and churchill insurance.
let's respond to his advertising and challenge churchill
should CUR FRED resign?

OOHHHHH YESSSSSSSS
Posted by: brave boys on 11:32am Sun 27 Jul 08

I see the Sunday Herald is not reporting the story of “our brave boys” killing civilians in Helmand province (see BBC report below). The attack on the civilians came shortly after Taliban killed a Brit dog-handler which in turn came the day after some commanding officer got a CBE for liberating Helmand Province months ago. The Army blames the dead civilians – people in Ireland will know this sort of story which is presumably why the Sunday Herald is not reporting it.

British troops in southern Afghanistan have killed four civilians and injured three others after a vehicle failed to stop at a checkpoint.
Soldiers opened fire on the vehicle north of Sangin town centre in Helmand Province, suspecting that those inside were insurgents, Nato said.
Page last updated at 15:11 GMT, Saturday, 26 July 2008 16:11 UK
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Posted by: virginia, Glasgow on 1:39pm Sun 27 Jul 08
To the writer of "brave boys". Do you know anything about how the soldiers felt standing at the checkpoint? The headline could have been "British soldiers killed as car explodes at checkpoint". You are a very ignorant individual.
Posted by: BA, Amsterdam on 12:40pm Thu 31 Jul 08
To "iainm" and "tolduso"

The acquisition of ABN has yet to be bedded in; even optimistic views would not expect real gains before 2 years. Latest expectation is late 2009.

As for Sir Fred going, exactly who do you propose takes his place? I appreciate that the current board may not be fully equipped to handle a newly enlargened, multi-national / domicile bank but the real issue is RBS's UK centric approach to governance and control; this is not solely a Board issue.
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