Trade booming on back of the fall in sterling’s valueBy Steven Vass,
Deputy Business Editor
THE WEAKNESS of the pound is producing a boom in Scottish exports, according to new figures from Scotland's chambers of commerce.
As talk of stagnation in the wider economy shifts to talk of recession, export growth is likely to become an increasingly important crutch for the Scottish economy in the months ahead.
Sterling has plunged by 8% of its value against a basket of currencies this year, over half of that in the past month. Exporters are optimistic that the softening currency will further bolster their overseas sales figures in months ahead.
The Edinburgh, Glasgow and Aberdeen chambers, which provide export documentation - the standard paperwork required to satisfy customs requirements in non-EU markets - as a service to members, have all seen strong rises in demand in recent months. In Aberdeen and Glasgow the growth is accelerating.
Glasgow documentation demand was up 23% in the first seven months of the year, compared to only 5% in the same period the year before, while Aberdeen is up by around 20% in the past quarter, compared to 10% in 2007.
Pat Christie, export documentation manager at the Aberdeen Chamber of Commerce, said: "Oil and gas is doing big business overseas, but northeast exporters of fish, potatoes and clothing are saying they are so busy it's unbelievable."
The Edinburgh Chamber's figures have risen between 8% and 12% each month for the past five months, slower than last year's 18% but seen as a sign of strength in the face of the downturn.
A spokesman for the Edinburgh Chamber of Commerce said that whisky-exporting members were among those seeing their sales figures surging forward. He said: "We are continuing to outperform projections, and undoubtedly the weak pound has assisted that."
Dawson International, the Kinross-based cashmere clothing and yarn group, became the latest company to point to currency benefits last week as it announced that the weak pound had added £600,000 profits in its yarn business, helping to narrow overall pre-tax losses in the first half of the year.
Dawson chairman Mike Hartley told the Sunday Herald that the benefit would have been greater had it not been for currency hedges that did not anticipate the pound's decline against the euro. But he said: "In the short term, a weak pound tends to affect your prices, but in the medium term it benefits your volumes. If the pound remains weak for a long time, we would tend to benefit in volumes."
Andrew McMullan, chief executive of East Kilbride wind turbine maker Proven Energy, was similarly optimistic.
He said: "Proven Energy has been exporting small-scale wind turbines from our Ayrshire base since the early 1980s, with almost 1800 installed worldwide to date. Approximately 25% of our revenue last year was from export into global markets, growing this year to approximately 60% of our revenue year to date. With the UK market still enjoying substantial growth, it's certain to say that some of this business growth can be attributed to the pound."
Scottish export growth was 3% in the year ended March 31, the most recent period for which figures are available. More recent indicators are more mixed, with tomorrow's monthly RBS purchasing managers' index expected to show a month-on-month drop in the number of surveyed exporters reporting increased sales overseas. Q2 figures are out in late October.
Despite the new evidence from individual chambers, the Scottish Chambers of Commerce's most recent quarterly business survey showed that export orders were close to flat against a 23% drop in UK demand, suggesting that international demand is increasingly propping up the economy.
Dougie Adams, economic adviser to the Ernst & Young Item Club, said Scotland was now well placed to benefit from the export growth seen in the US this year. He said: "People haven't recognised the extent to which the US is benefiting from the low value of the dollar prior to its recent rise in value over a period of time. US exports are now growing faster than Chinese exports. That shows how powerful a devaluation can be over time."
The downside to the weak pound, he added, was that we become a poorer relative to the rest of the world, making it more difficult for the Bank of England to cut interest rates, which would risk further devaluing the currency and could stoke inflation. But Adams said that the UK economy was already so weak that a lower pound might not have such an effect.
Against a weighted basket of international currencies, the pound's value has fallen 5% in the past month and 8% since January. The pound's value against the US dollar has fallen from $2 to the pound on 17 July to $1.77 at the close on Friday.
A spokesman for public export agency Scottish Development International (SDI) said: "With the current economic uncertainty, accessing new markets will become ever more important, particularly if existing traditional markets slow down. SDI is working with businesses across Scotland to ensure they have all the support they need to help them capitalise on these opportunities."