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July 10, 2009 Est 1999 Scotland's award-winning independent newspaper
Might there be light?
Surely things can only get better for Scotland plc. Sunday Herald markets soothsayer John Phelps casts his eye over the Scottish corporate landscape and finds plenty of reasons why Scotland’s corporate elite can thrive, not merely survive.

MARTIN GILBERT, of Aberdeen Asset Management has brought some welcome relief to a gloomy financial sector as Scotland's biggest companies prepare for the fresh challenges in store during 2009.

His purchase of Credit Suisse's traditional fund management arm at the year end boosts the country's stock of market-leading businesses with AAM now controlling assets of £150 billion.

And it adds to the Aberdeen company's list of powerful allies with the Swiss bank taking a 25% shareholding alongside the Japanese Mitsubishi Bank which has the option to acquire as much as 20% of the business.

The deal has been warmly welcomed by investors who believe the group has struck bargain-basement terms, paying just 0.625% for the funds compared with figures of around 3% paid by others when the stock market was in favour.

It is also a salutary reminder that there can be light at the end of even the darkest tunnel - it is only a few years ago that the company was virtually a pariah of the financial services industry after being brought to its knees by the split-capital investment trust debacle.

That light, however, must still appear a distant glimmer for shareholders and employees of HBOS and Royal Bank of Scotland who are still finding out the consequences of their recent rescues from financial disaster.

HBOS, which is about to be taken over by Lloyds TSB barring last-minute hitches, is seen as particularly vulnerable because of its exposure to the stricken housing and property markets.

There is speculation that the spectre of further bad debts could result in the combined group having to tap the government for more cash after previous funding means that it is already likely to be 43.5% state-owned when the deal is completed.

In addition, there are some fears that the government could exact a tough price for its support and the group could store up still more potential problems by being forced to lend to some unpromising customers.

As things stand, Lloyds TSB boss Eric Daniels is expected to preside over a thorough overhaul of the HBOS empire when he finally gets his feet under the table.

Edinburgh-based Intelligent Finance and fellow mortgage specialist BM Solutions are among operations facing the chop, while shareholdings in companies such as St James's Place and Clerical Medical are likely to be sold.

It is understood that Daniels would also like to pass on both shareholdings and loans in the group's Integrated Finance division which accounts for £4.5bn of HBOS lending.

RBS, which is now 57.9% owned by the government, also faces interference from the state as it awaits the appointment of a new chairman to succeed Sir Tom McKillop.

If anything, it is in a still more dire state than HBOS and analysts at RBS have warned that next month's figures could show underlying losses of as much as £28bn if directors take a rigorous view on necessary provisions and bad debts in the pipeline.

Others say that figure is far too high but agree that it is possible that Scotland's leading company could also require more funding in the course of the year.

In the circumstances, new chief executive Stephen Hester is expected to seek cash elsewhere in a bid to retain some degree of independence and some of the overseas assets acquired with ABN Amro could be put on the market together with US businesses and the highly profitable 4.3% stake in Bank of China.

Officially, the new team is still conducting its review of operations and is not due to report its findings until the end of the first quarter of 2009.

At present only its insurance brands, Churchill and Direct Line, are on the market and directors have reserved the right to pull any sale if they do not fetch the right sort of price by the time of February's results presentation.

Life insurance giant Standard Life, led by the newly ennobled Sir Sandy Crombie, could afford to look down on the problems elsewhere in the financial sector for much of the year as it was one of only a handful of companies to record increased share values.

But that changed abruptly at the start of December when brokers turned sour on the whole sector and the shares plunged nearly 40% in a matter of weeks.

Much of the concern centres on the effect of falling stock-market values on earnings and potential balance sheet strains.

Crombie, though, has seen out worse conditions in the run-up to the flotation of the Edinburgh institution in 2006 and claims the group will again show its resilience in 2009.

He is particularly proud of his balance sheet surplus under the Financial Group Directive System which stood at £3.4bn at the end of September, pointing out that Standard Life would retain a £1.9bn surplus even if share prices dropped 40% from that level.

Those of a cautious disposition might note that the FTSE 100 index has declined by about 9.5% since he calculated those figures.

While Standard Life is the only major Scottish company to attract an outright sell recommendation at present levels, analysts are tipping a round half dozen to stage further rallies.

The favoured few are led by power supplier Scottish and Southern Energy, the professionals attracted by its bumper dividends which mean investors can pick up payments of £5.29 for every £100 invested in the shares at current levels.

Chief executive Ian Marchant, though, has a tough task in balancing investor expectations with those of the politicians and customers after delays in passing on the benefits of falling raw material costs.

In the past, he has tended to be the first of the majors to cut prices and his nine million customers are hoping for a 10%-plus tariff reduction to be announced in the next week or two.

With demand inflated by the recent cold snap, there are hopes that an early reduction could still leave the group in sight of £1bn profits this year after a disappointing first six months' trading.

Sir Bill Gammell's Cairn Energy, due to become Scotland's fourth-largest quoted company after the takeovers of HBOS and British Energy, will take major steps towards realising the potential of its vast Indian discoveries from 2009.

Its 65%-owned associated Cairn India is set to start production from its largest field, Mangala, by the second half of the year. Its existing field in Rajasthan continues to build up to an estimated 175,000 barrels a day by 2010.

Gammell is also hoping to firm up the potential of promising exploration prospects in a range of areas, from west of the Shetlands and Greenland to Bangladesh, Nepal and Sri Lanka.

North Sea oil group Dana Petroleum is another Scottish company to enter the new year in buoyant mood after celebrating the first production from the Grouse field it shares with Aberdeen neighbours at Venture Production.

The field will give it extra daily production of 5000 barrels of oil per day, adding 12% to its existing output.

The news, which sent the group's shares soaring last week, rounds off an excellent 2008 for chief executive Tom Cross, who has recorded Dana's best-ever oil and gas production while gaining extra reserves on his home patch and in Egypt and Norway.

While shares of Cairn and Dana have both rallied in a new wave of optimism in recent weeks, oil services specialist Wood Group has continued in the doldrums over ongoing concerns over the impact of low oil prices on its business.

Chairman Sir Ian Wood, who has seen tough times in the past, says his next set of annual figures will show strong growth but warns of more challenging conditions ahead.

Brokers at Evolution Securities have taken the prediction at face value and expect a near 20% drop in earnings per share for 2009.

Temporary power specialist Aggreko is another to have seen its shares suffer on vague concerns over the future impact of the recession on its global business, although a 50%-plus increase in this year's profits to around £190 million should be in the bag.

Despite the share weakness, directors have stepped up their capital spending to increase their capacity to supply markets in countries in the developing world suffering from power shortages and say they have yet to see any real fall in demand.

No fewer than seven out of 10 brokers polled by financial data specialist Hemscott say the gloom has been overdone and the shares are worth buying at current levels.

Brian Souter's propensity to speak his mind hit shares of his own Stagecoach as well as fellow Scottish transport giant FirstGroup when he warned that rail operations could suffer from rising unemployment in 2009.

But the duo's bus and US operations continue to do well from the growth of public transport as customers cut back on car travel, and both companies are on course to deliver good returns in 2009.

Even pessimistic followers look for only a marginal fall in Stagecoach profits in 2009-10, while FirstGroup is expected to produce a further increase as it squeezes better returns from its Laidlaw acquisition.

Arise, Sir Sandy: the ups and downs of bagging a knighthood

Much speculation surrounds the knighthood of Sandy Crombie, chief executive of Standard Life, in the New Year honours, writes Ian Fraser.

The sophisticates' interpretation is that the Edinburgh giant "got its crisis in early" with its traumatic U-turn on mutuality in 2004, leaving it financially strong with a surplus of £3.4 billion and therefore unlikely to come knocking on the Treasury's door pleading for bail-outs. The company's shares, which floated at 240p in 2006, fell by "only" 20% in 2008, to close the year at 202p. That is a strong performance when compared to the 90% destruction in value seen at HBOS and the Royal Bank of Scotland.

It may also be that Crombie - who prides himself on being "calm in a crisis" - was rewarded because his investments arm, Standard Life Investments, twice stepped in to help the prime minister Gordon Brown with the rescue of troubled banks. It supported, and indeed partially underwrote, Bradford & Bingley's doomed £400 million rights issue in July, even though this led to a massive destruction of shareholder value when the former building society was nationalised. In October, SLI rode to the rescue of Lloyds TSB's controversial takeover of HBOS, after a few investors' heads were banged together by Downing Street.

Crombie - described as "dour" or "dull" only by those who don't appreciate his dry humour - is also being rewarded for sheer staying power. Educated at Buckhaven High School, the soft-spoken Fifer joined Standard Life as a trainee actuary in 1966. He has worked for the same institution for a phenomenal 42 years and seems to have no intention of stepping down soon.

A more straighforward view of why Crombie, 59, got the "K" is his services to arts and culture. He is chairman of the Edinburgh Unesco City of Literature Trust and vice-chairman of the Royal Scottish Academy of Music and Drama. Under his stewardship, Standard Life has been a major supporter of avant-garde international dance events at the Edinburgh Festival, some of which have been anything but dour and dull.

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