In the aftermath of the American bombing of Somalia last week, it has emerged that US forces have been running military operations in the east African nation since Christmas … if they ever left at all. Steve Bloomfield reports from Nairobi
THE AMERICANS called it a "surgical strike". No civilians were injured, they claimed, let alone killed. Eyewitnesses said that the bombing was "indiscriminate" and more than 30 people died.
Some 13 years after withdrawing in haste following the disastrous Black Hawk Down mission, America was back in Somalia and a new front in the global war on terror had opened up in the most dramatic of fashions.
A huge AC-130 gunship pummelled the sleepy fishing village of Ras Kamboni, near the Kenyan border, on Monday. Firing 1800 rounds a minute from a six- barrel Gatling gun, the strike obliterated everything that stood in its path.
Its targets were three senior al-Qaeda operatives that the US has been tracking in Somalia for several years. Comoros national Fazul Abdullah Mohammed is accused of masterminding the 1998 US embassy bombings in Nairobi and Dar-es-Salaam which killed 225 people. Abu Taha al-Sudani of Sudan is thought to be al-Qaeda's chief in east Africa, while Kenyan Saleh Ali Saleh Nabhan is wanted in connection with the 2002 attacks in Momabsa against a hotel and an airliner.
The three have allegedly been sheltered in Somalia by the Union of Islamic Courts (UIC), the loose coalition of Islamists that had controlled large swathes of southern and central Somalia since June last year. That control ended swiftly over Christmas following an invasion by neighbouring Ethiopia in support of the fragile Somali government. The Islamists were driven out of Mogadishu within days, the port town of Kismaayo within weeks, and their final stronghold, Ras Kamboni, yesterday.
As the Islamists fled in disarray, the US took the opportunity to attack. But, despite initial reports that Fazul had been killed, it soon emerged that none of the three had in fact died. The US tried to put a positive spin on the mission, claiming several "al-Qaeda affiliates" had been killed.
The bombing has raised many questions. Why did the US try to kill the alleged terrorists rather than capture them? Why did the US themselves carry out the attack when the past month's military action in Somalia has been left to Ethiopian and Somali government forces? And, following credible reports that more than 70 nomads were killed in last week's bombings, have the US air strikes backfired?
While this is the first time that the US had admitted to carrying out actions in Somalia since 18 Army rangers were killed during the 1993 Black Hawk Down mission, in truth the US has never really been away - certainly not since 9/11. From a base in neighbouring Djibouti (formerly French Somaliland), the US has run a 1500-strong task force for the Horn of Africa - a volatile region with countries that are suspected of sheltering terrorists.
In the past two years, US special forces ran several joint missions with Ethiopia along the Ethiopia/Somalia border aimed at tracking down suspected terrorists inside Somalia. When this didn't bring the results they hoped for, the US turned to new allies inside Somalia itself.
They turned to the very same warlords who forced US troops out of Somalia in 1994. Teams of US intelligence officials visited Mogadishu several times in 2005. A small team of American intelligence officers came under attack on January 13, 2006, when fighting broke out near a Mogadishu airstrip - although it's still not clear whether they were specifically targeted or simply got caught up in a local dispute.
Either way, within a fortnight the city's warlords had formed themselves into an "anti-terror coalition" funded by the US to go after suspected terrorists. Analysts in the region claim CIA operatives delivered suitcases stuffed with $100 bills to warlords. The price of an AK-47 quadrupled to nearly $600 as the warlords re-armed.
But the "coalition" failed. The warlords, already unpopular, saw all support disappear when the Somalis realised who was funding them. By June, the UIC, a loose coalition including both moderate and extreme Islamists, had driven the warlords out of Mogadishu.
The UIC proved popular, delivering a semblance of law and order to a city once known as the most dangerous in the world. But neighbouring Ethiopia was never comfortable with the possibility of a radical Islamic state on its doorstep and the weak Somali government based in the small western town of Baidoa was equally keen to prevent the UIC taking over the whole country.
Despite publicly warning Ethiopia to stay out of Somalia, the US fully supported the Ethiopian Christmas invasion. US pilots flew reconnaissance missions over Islamist strongholds, US soldiers trained Ethiopian forces, and it has now emerged that US special forces entered Somalia alongside Ethiopian troops.
The secrecy of the US's involvement in Somalia makes Monday's attack on Ras Kamboni all the more strange. One senior western diplomat based in Nairobi, who monitors the Somalia situation, said the timing of the air strike raised suspicions. "It happened right on the eve of President Bush's Iraq statement. It would have looked very good for him to have a win. Initially we got optimistic statements."
Indeed, it was only after the launch of President Bush's new Iraq strategy that the US admitted that none of the three senior al-Qaeda suspects they were aiming for had been killed. Questions are now being asked over the credibility of the intelligence.
Privately, senior US officials in the region have admitted that they have no intelligence sources of their own inside Somalia. Newspaper reports from the region's Nairobi-based correspondents and Somali reporters inside the country are read before intelligence briefings.
What intelligence they do have comes from their regional allies - Ethiopia, Kenya and Somalia's transitional government. A Somalia expert in Nairobi raised doubts over the veracity of intelligence given by governments which are paid for the information they provide.
"What if Kenya or Ethiopa don't have any new information? The need for cash is always there. The Kenyans are quite nave about the situation on the ground in Somalia and Ethiopia is pursuing its own national interest. There is heavy emphasis on faulty intelligence. The US is being milked. That's why there were so many civilian casualties."
The US ambassador to Kenya, Michael Ranneberger, claimed that no civilians had been killed or injured and that only one attack had taken place.
Several air attacks have taken place in southern Somalia this week. Some are believed to have been carried out by Ethiopian helicopters. Claims are almost impossible to verify as access to these remote villages is limited. Aid agencies have struggled to get resources in and with the Kenyan border sealed by Kenyan troops no one is able to get out either.
But whether the bombings have been carried out by Ethiopians or Americans, it appears that many civilians are dying. Oxfam confirmed that at least 70 nomads in the Afmadow district near the border with Kenya had been killed.
The pastoralists were bombed at night as they gathered around large fires, and during the day while hunting for water sources. The UN's refugee agency, UNHCR, also reported that an estimated 100 people were wounded in Monday's airstrikes. Oxfam's regional director, Paul Smith-Lomas, said the organisation was "deeply concerned" that "innocent people in Somalia are paying a price".
The point of the US exercise may have been to eliminate suspected terrorists, but analysts in the region fear the action may only lead to an increase in support for extremists.
"The US is acting like a confused elephant," said the Nairobi-based Somalia expert. "They are blundering around not knowing what they are doing. They are creating more widowed women and more orphaned children. It is just helping the Islamists gain popular support which they don't really deserve."
Mogadishu, once described as the most dangerous city in the world but widely believed to have been tamed somewhat by the Islamists, has become more volatile in recent days. There have been at least three attacks in the last four days against government and Ethiopian forces. In the latest fighting yesterday at least six militia men died after fighting between clan militia and government troops outside the presidential villa. Yesterday, in an attempt to curb the violence, the Somalia parliament declared a three-month state of emergency amid fears of a return to clan warfare after weeks of war ousted the Islamists.
While the leaders of the UIC fled, many of the fighters remained in Mogadishu, shedding their uniforms and melting back into the city. The most militant wing of the UIC, known as the Shabaab, is still in existence. Somalis knowledgeable of the Shabaab's actions and movements believe that around three-quarters of the group have remained in Mogadishu.
"They are just sleeping," said one source. "They will re-emerge."
UN officials privately admit that the risk of an Iraq-style insurgency in Mogadishu is still strong. The longer Ethiopian troops remain in the country, the bigger the risk, they say. Ethiopia's prime minister, Meles Zenawi, is keen to pull his troops out as soon as possible. Having fought two wars with Somalia in the past 45 years, Ethiopia is incredibly unpopular among ordinary people, be they supporters of the Islamists or not.
But an Ethiopian withdrawal would create a security vacuum that may be difficult to fill. The US is keen for an African Union force to enter Somalia as peacekeepers, but so far only Uganda has intimated it may be willing to send any troops.
The Somali government does not have much of an army. Somalia's biggest warlords appeared to agree to disarm their militias and form a new national army on Friday. But, as the warlords met with the Somali president, Abdullahi Yusuf, gun battles raged outside the presidential villa, underlining the scale of the security problems in Somalia's capital.
And, the longer Mogadishu remains unstable and Ethiopian troops remain, the greater the chances of the unrest spreading throughout Somalia and the wider Horn of Africa. Eritrea, which has been accused of sending around 2000 troops to Somalia to bolster the Islamists, warned of "dangerous consequences" stemming form the US attack. Another neighbouring country, Djibouti, also condemned the attack, saying it would prove counterproductive.
While the fighting continues, civilians are bearing the brunt. Before fighting broke out, Somalia was suffering its worst flooding in a decade. The year before, the entire region had experienced a terrible drought. With the border with Kenya sealed to stop Courts fighters escaping, the UN's world food programme is struggling to get enough food aid into the country.
Aid agencies are unable to provide support to local partners. The International Committee of the Red Cross, which has three hospitals in Mogadishu alone, is unable to provide assistance to their national staff. Around 10 civilians caught in the crossfire are coming to the hospitals every day with gunshot wounds.
The coming weeks will determine whether Somalia's fledgling government - the 14th attempt at recreating a state since Mohammed Siad Barre was overthrown in 1991 - has a realistic chance of bringing a sense of peace and unity back to the country. President Yusuf will need to reach out to Mogadishu's disparate clan leaders as well as bring in some of the moderates from the UIC.
"Everybody's hoping that these guys get it," said a western diplomat, "that there will be inclusion. But crystal-ball gazing for Somalia is impossible. Nobody knows what will happen next."