The death of Nato? It won the cold war, but now Nato has to finally face up to another fearsome enemy – change. By Diplomatic Editor Trevor Royle NATO IS in danger of getting itself broken beyond repair so let's fix it before it's too late. That is the stark message facing the alliance's diplomats and military commanders at the end of one of the edgiest weeks they have ever faced.
The main problem is to be found in Afghanistan, where the alliance has had its first prolonged taste of real combat in command of the International Security Assistance Force (Isaf). More than 42,000 troops are under its command, coming from 39 countries including the full complement of 26 Nato members. However, its future is now in doubt following a Canadian threat to withdraw 2500 combat troops from Kandahar.
On the one hand, the US and its main ally, Britain, want Nato's European members to make a greater military contribution to the war effort to offset the Canadian threat. On the other hand, most of the European governments in Nato believe that the impasse in Afghanistan is more likely to be solved by the imposition of law and order and the subsequent implementation of education, economic aid and a modern infrastructure.
The consequences of that disagreement over policy and its effects on the future of the 59-year-old alliance were put into context by a senior British Army officer when he said: "Nato held its own against Soviet military power throughout the years of the cold war. Now it's in danger of being brought to its knees by a handful of hawk-faced men armed only with Kalashnikovs, RPGs and an overwhelming sense of their own worth."
Like so many problems to have surfaced in the aftermath of the cold war, when Nato had to reinvent itself to confront the realities of a post-communist world, this latest problem has been festering for some years. When Nato came into being on April 4, 1949, as the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation, the certainties were obvious: the West was threatened by the Soviet Union and its Warsaw Pact allies, and the new alliance guaranteed continuing US superpower commitment to the defence of western Europe.
The philosophy was relatively simple. Members retained national command of their forces in peacetime, but in time of crisis they contributed to collective security through Nato's Supreme Headquarters Allied Powers Europe (Shape) based in Belgium. In deference to US military superiority, especially its huge nuclear arsenal, Shape was always commanded by a US four-star general. In 1952, Greece and Turkey were admitted to Nato to help guard the southern flank. Three years later, the alliance expanded further by allowing West Germany to become a member.
Like the later enlargement which followed the end of the cold war and brought the membership to its present level of 26 countries, this process of expansion caused a good deal of turmoil, especially among the European members who had to balance the requirement for collective security with their own need for retaining democratic integrity.
President John F Kennedy made the most pertinent remark about the alliance in 1962, when he said of it: "I want two strong towers in Nato, one American and one European." This was balanced by the more realistic comment from Lord Ismay, a British secretary-general of the alliance, who commented five years before that Nato had come into being "to keep the Russians out, the Americans in and the Germans down". Against that historical background, the alliance has been struggling to find a new role in the post-cold war world. It intervened effectively in Kosovo in 1999 to protect the Albanian majority and to bring about the demise of Serbian President Milosevic, but that effort had to be put in a fresh perspective with the advent of the war against global terrorism in 2001. At the time of the terrorist attacks, Nato pledged full support, citing article five, which states that an attack on one member is considered an attack on all members, but far from instilling confidence in Washington, this well-meant move was politely put to one side, with the Bush administration arguing that it would adopt an "a la carte approach" to facing up to those responsible for the attacks.
Thus was born the US unilateralist approach that led first to the attacks on Afghanistan to unseat the Taliban government in 2001 and then to the regime-change operations in Iraq two years later. During that time the relationships within the alliance became ever more peevish, and there was a serious split between Washington and most of the European capitals, especially Paris and Berlin. From the outset it was clear that the US policy could only prosper because Russia was weak, but seven years later things have changed. Russia is on the way back to becoming a global power and President Vladimir Putin quickly took advantage of the disarray in Nato ranks to hint that there could be a new arms race.
Last week, the problem finally exploded with a two-barrelled blast at the alliance from Washington. First, defence secretary Robert Gates told the US Senate's armed forces committee that Nato was in danger of becoming a "two-tiered alliance" after Germany turned down his demand for more combat troops in Afghanistan. Then, during a lightning visit to Kandahar with Britain's foreign secretary David Miliband, secretary of state Condoleezza Rice kept up the pressure on the reluctant members of the alliance.
"Frankly, I hope there will be more troop contributions and there needs to be more Afghan forces," she told reporters during the flight from London where she had begun her visit. She then went on to say that Nato members must "give enough military power to do what needs to be done on the front end of the counter-insurgency effort".
Rice's intervention was made more telling by the fact that she and Miliband were heading towards Kandahar, one of Afghanistan's hot spots where the recalcitrant Nato countries in question refuse to allow their forces to serve. The coincidence was not lost on Nato defence ministers meeting at the same time in the Lithuanian capital of Vilnius, where Nato secretary-general Jaap de Hoop Scheffer rejected allegations that the alliance was in danger of splitting and claimed that Nato represented "one alliance". However, as was widely anticipated, the meeting yielded no fresh offers of troops, and the alliance remains as divided on the issue as ever before.
"I don't think that there's a crisis, that there's a risk of failure," Robert Gates told the meeting. "My view is that it represents, potentially, the opportunity to make further progress faster in Afghanistan if we had more forces there."
In response, new member Poland offered an additional 1000 troops, and France is considering the deployment of a battalion of airborne forces to reinforce the Canadians. The Germans, however, remained obdurate that they would neither increase the size of their deployment, nor would they change the rules of engagement which prevent their soldiers taking part in combat operations.
"I think we are doing our part fully in Afghanistan," claimed their defence minister Franz Josef Jung, who also pointed out that his country's 3200-strong contingent was the third largest in Isaf.
The heart of the quarrel remains troop levels, but there is another problem beneath all the posturing about who does the most to make Nato more effective in Afghanistan. In the months ahead, once the weather gets warmer, the Taliban will be reopening their military campaign, and Nato commanders know that it promises to be what one senior British officer called "a massive punch-up".
For Nato it will be a testing moment and one that will be the measure of the military deployment, but some seasoned veterans with long experience of Afghanistan, including Rory Stewart, a former diplomat and Black Watch officer, have already questioned whether more firepower is the answer. "I think we have to be very careful, above all, of appearing to be engaged in colonial politics," Stewart argued in a television interview last week. "I think Afghans are justifiably very suspicious of foreigners coming into their country, particularly with over 40,000 soldiers. People should stop talking about creating a gender-sensitive, multi-ethnic centralised state based on democracy, human rights and the rule of law."
The problem is that Nato is not geared up to that kind of thinking, even though it is beginning to concentrate on training the Afghans to take over responsibility for their own security. The alliance was formed to defend the West against attack from the Soviet Union. During that time it never fired a shot in anger, and now it has been tasked to fight what many believe is the wrong war in the wrong place at the wrong time.
"Afghanistan is still considered by the security community as the make-or-break mission for Nato, and the urgency of the situation cannot be overstated," argues Kate Clouston, an associate of the Royal United Services Institute, in a paper on the alliance's operations in Afghanistan for the independent think tank. "Substantial reform by Nato allies is needed now if the alliance is ever going to be ready to hand over control of the currently unsecured provinces to Afghan national forces."
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Posted by: BM, Glasgow on 12:06am Sun 10 Feb 08
The problem with Nato is that the present US administration regard it as an extension of their own forces, to be used for fighting their own private and often illegal wars. That was never what it was founded for.
The problem with Nato is that the present US administration regard it as an extension of their own forces, to be used for fighting their own private and often illegal wars. That was never what it was founded for.
Posted by: CA, London on 3:05am Sun 10 Feb 08
That's oversimplifying the situation a bit, don't you think BM from Glasgow? NATO isn't operating in Iraq; and Afghanistan isn't an 'illegal war', it is mandated unanimously by the UN Security Council, and by all members of NATO. Know your facts before you display such a shallow analysis.
That's oversimplifying the situation a bit, don't you think BM from Glasgow? NATO isn't operating in Iraq; and Afghanistan isn't an 'illegal war', it is mandated unanimously by the UN Security Council, and by all members of NATO. Know your facts before you display such a shallow analysis.
Posted by: Fraser, Edinburgh on 3:55am Sun 10 Feb 08
CA of London...
Afghanistan may not technically be an illegal war,but it is certainly an illegitimate one.
There is no evidence that they had anything to do with 9/11 and it is a little known fact that Bush signed the order to invade Afghanistan before 9/11 even happened.
Sept 10th 2001 to be exact.
"U.S. OK’d plan
to topple Taliban
a day before 9/11"
WASHINGTON - "After years of delay caused by inadequate intelligence, the U.S. government decided just one day before the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks that it would try to overthrow the Taliban rulers of Afghanistan if a diplomatic push to expel Osama bin Laden from the country failed, the independent panel investigating the attacks reported Tuesday."
"The plans were reported in May 2002 by MSNBC.com and NBC News, but the details and precise timing were revealed for the first time in the new report released Tuesday by the National Commission on Terrorist Attacks Upon the United States."
(MSNBC March 25th 2004)
CA of London...
Afghanistan may not technically be an illegal war,but it is certainly an illegitimate one.
There is no evidence that they had anything to do with 9/11 and it is a little known fact that Bush signed the order to invade Afghanistan before 9/11 even happened.
Sept 10th 2001 to be exact.
"U.S. OK’d plan
to topple Taliban
a day before 9/11"
WASHINGTON - "After years of delay caused by inadequate intelligence, the U.S. government decided just one day before the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks that it would try to overthrow the Taliban rulers of Afghanistan if a diplomatic push to expel Osama bin Laden from the country failed, the independent panel investigating the attacks reported Tuesday."
"The plans were reported in May 2002 by MSNBC.com and NBC News, but the details and precise timing were revealed for the first time in the new report released Tuesday by the National Commission on Terrorist Attacks Upon the United States."
(MSNBC March 25th 2004)
Posted by: Fraser, Edinburgh on 4:00am Sun 10 Feb 08
The FBI, in response to a query as to why it does not list 9/11 as one of the crimes for which bin Laden is wanted, said: “The reason why 9/11 is not mentioned on Usama Bin Laden’s Most Wanted page is because the FBI has no hard evidence connecting Bin Laden to 9/11”
The FBI, in response to a query as to why it does not list 9/11 as one of the crimes for which bin Laden is wanted, said: “The reason why 9/11 is not mentioned on Usama Bin Laden’s Most Wanted page is because the FBI has no hard evidence connecting Bin Laden to 9/11”
Posted by: Fraser, Edinburgh on 4:19am Sun 10 Feb 08
Another problem with NATO is its history of covertly murdering innocent European civilians throughout the 1960's,1970's and 1980's in what was called "Gladio".(Google it)
This operation was responsible for events such as the Bologna railway station massacre and the 1980 Oktoberfest bombing in Munich.
In March 2001, Gladio agent Vincenzo Vinciguerra stated, in sworn testimony, "You had to attack civilians, the people, women, children, innocent people, unknown people far removed from any political game. The reason was quite simple: to force ... the public to turn to the state to ask for greater security."
Another problem with NATO is its history of covertly murdering innocent European civilians throughout the 1960's,1970's and 1980's in what was called "Gladio".(Google it)
This operation was responsible for events such as the Bologna railway station massacre and the 1980 Oktoberfest bombing in Munich.
In March 2001, Gladio agent Vincenzo Vinciguerra stated, in sworn testimony, "You had to attack civilians, the people, women, children, innocent people, unknown people far removed from any political game. The reason was quite simple: to force ... the public to turn to the state to ask for greater security."
Posted by: chris, canada on 4:22am Sun 10 Feb 08
Its a moot point whether the USSR ever actually threatened western europe but what is certain is that NATO forces never actually went to war before this latest nonsense. When they did it became apparent that their role is simply to do what the US tells them to do. And that is hard for some countries to swallow. Harder still when it it becomes obvious that the US has no real desire to end the war and does all it can, by enraging the local population and mounting raids across the border into Pakistan (and Iran) to ensure that it goes on.
All of which has nothing to do with providing security for the people of Europe or Canada but everything to do with dragging satraps into offering up lives for the Empire. It's a familiar enough situation for Canadians, it's not exactly novel for Scots either.
As to whether the war in Afghanistan is "legal" - Hitler could have called a meeting of The League of Nations in 1941 and armed himself with a mandate to invade the USSR.
Its a moot point whether the USSR ever actually threatened western europe but what is certain is that NATO forces never actually went to war before this latest nonsense. When they did it became apparent that their role is simply to do what the US tells them to do. And that is hard for some countries to swallow. Harder still when it it becomes obvious that the US has no real desire to end the war and does all it can, by enraging the local population and mounting raids across the border into Pakistan (and Iran) to ensure that it goes on.
All of which has nothing to do with providing security for the people of Europe or Canada but everything to do with dragging satraps into offering up lives for the Empire. It's a familiar enough situation for Canadians, it's not exactly novel for Scots either.
As to whether the war in Afghanistan is "legal" - Hitler could have called a meeting of The League of Nations in 1941 and armed himself with a mandate to invade the USSR.
Posted by: bill, england on 7:49am Sun 10 Feb 08
This Afghanistan adventure will lead to Nato's demise. It has been hijacked by Bushco to fight a private war for control of oil and drugs, and expansion of the American Empire.
The placing of missile defence systems in Eastern Europe by Bushco is an act of war, and the consequent build up in Russian arms will pose a major threat to Europe, just as in the Cold War.
We can no longer rely on discredited Nato, the EU is totally unable to form a defence organisation, so Europe will probably end up being under the control of Russia.
This Afghanistan adventure will lead to Nato's demise. It has been hijacked by Bushco to fight a private war for control of oil and drugs, and expansion of the American Empire.
The placing of missile defence systems in Eastern Europe by Bushco is an act of war, and the consequent build up in Russian arms will pose a major threat to Europe, just as in the Cold War.
We can no longer rely on discredited Nato, the EU is totally unable to form a defence organisation, so Europe will probably end up being under the control of Russia.
Posted by: IJ on 11:57am Sun 10 Feb 08
On the legality of the US invasion of Afghanistan. Can a country really claim the right of self defence if attacked by a group within another sovereign country?
But there are few mechanisms in international law to adjudicate on such an important question, let alone take enforcement action against offenders. While this disorder persists, Nato and nuclear weapons etc seem necessary.
On the legality of the US invasion of Afghanistan. Can a country really claim the right of self defence if attacked by a group within another sovereign country?
But there are few mechanisms in international law to adjudicate on such an important question, let alone take enforcement action against offenders. While this disorder persists, Nato and nuclear weapons etc seem necessary.
Posted by: Charles McGrory on 1:15pm Sun 10 Feb 08
Blair got us into this mess.
Posted by: Charles McGrory, Glasgow on 1:13pm today
There is a new online petition, only two days old, to stop Blair to become President of the EU. There are over 10,000 signatures ... www.stopblair.eu Pass the word!
There is a new online petition, only two days old, to stop Blair to become President of the EU. There are over 10,000 signatures ...
www.stopblair.eu
Pass the word!
Blair got us into this mess.
Posted by: Charles McGrory, Glasgow on 1:13pm today
There is a new online petition, only two days old, to stop Blair to become President of the EU. There are over 10,000 signatures ... www.stopblair.eu Pass the word!
There is a new online petition, only two days old, to stop Blair to become President of the EU. There are over 10,000 signatures ...
www.stopblair.eu
Pass the word!
Posted by: bill,england on 3:34pm Sun 10 Feb 08
[quote][bold]IJ[/bold] wrote:
On the legality of the US invasion of Afghanistan. Can a country really claim the right of self defence if attacked by a group within another sovereign country?
But there are few mechanisms in international law to adjudicate on such an important question, let alone take enforcement action against offenders. While this disorder persists, Nato and nuclear weapons etc seem necessary.
[/quote] The US invasion of Afghanistan was authorised before 9/11, somewhat illegal, wouldn't you think?
We have the UN, it is all we have, and we have to make it work.
Nato and nuclear weapons were inaugurated for necessary defence; sure we need them, but we don't want them in the wrong hands.
IJ wrote:
On the legality of the US invasion of Afghanistan. Can a country really claim the right of self defence if attacked by a group within another sovereign country?
But there are few mechanisms in international law to adjudicate on such an important question, let alone take enforcement action against offenders. While this disorder persists, Nato and nuclear weapons etc seem necessary.
The US invasion of Afghanistan was authorised before 9/11, somewhat illegal, wouldn't you think?
We have the UN, it is all we have, and we have to make it work.
Nato and nuclear weapons were inaugurated for necessary defence; sure we need them, but we don't want them in the wrong hands.
Posted by: Mohammad Asif, Glasgow on 4:58pm Sun 10 Feb 08
[bold]bold[/bold] I have read your article with great interest. The American and British are trying to blame their failure on others. Both of them failed in Afghanistan. I am from Afghanistan and speak to my contacts back home and the picture i get is that, most of the Afghans are happy to be ruled by the Talibaan. Ordinary Afghans have not benifited from foreigns forces and only a few have become multi millioniar. The Russians had 120000 soldiers but they failed and i am sure the Nato will fialed unless it improve the life of ordinary Afghans.
Mohammad Asif
President, Scottish Afghan Society[italic]italic[/italic]
I have read your article with great interest. The American and British are trying to blame their failure on others. Both of them failed in Afghanistan. I am from Afghanistan and speak to my contacts back home and the picture i get is that, most of the Afghans are happy to be ruled by the Talibaan. Ordinary Afghans have not benifited from foreigns forces and only a few have become multi millioniar. The Russians had 120000 soldiers but they failed and i am sure the Nato will fialed unless it improve the life of ordinary Afghans.
Mohammad Asif
President, Scottish Afghan Society
Posted by: amryform, UK on 5:06pm Sun 10 Feb 08
Truth of the matters is that it is an authorised UN commitment which is undertaken by NATO. Seems strange that both France and Germany looked towards the United States and Britain during the 'Cold War', but can give no help in front line deployment in Afghanistan.
Time for them both to show a bit of back-bone but of course it will not happen.
Truth of the matters is that it is an authorised UN commitment which is undertaken by NATO. Seems strange that both France and Germany looked towards the United States and Britain during the 'Cold War', but can give no help in front line deployment in Afghanistan.
Time for them both to show a bit of back-bone but of course it will not happen.
Posted by: Papy la blanc, Mississippi on 6:40pm Sun 10 Feb 08
You guy's are imbeciles the war in "Afghan" is not a war the USA made the UN fight.In fact like CA said "its UN mandated" by every one in the UN.If the unwilling countrys did'nt want war,well they should'nt have agreed to send troops in to war.Whats very sad,is how countrys are complaining about Afgan war.Its not that big of a war,yet some are acting as its costing them millions of dead.Get real god if yall think fighting terrorism is easy its "not.Now yall lets get real here,Afghan is becomeing stable and so is Iraq.And now to turn on the progress,is to start all over again on the sucess all ready made.
You guy's are imbeciles the war in "Afghan" is not a war the USA made the UN fight.In fact like CA said "its UN mandated" by every one in the UN.If the unwilling countrys did'nt want war,well they should'nt have agreed to send troops in to war.Whats very sad,is how countrys are complaining about Afgan war.Its not that big of a war,yet some are acting as its costing them millions of dead.Get real god if yall think fighting terrorism is easy its "not.Now yall lets get real here,Afghan is becomeing stable and so is Iraq.And now to turn on the progress,is to start all over again on the sucess all ready made.
Posted by: Dougthedug on 7:55pm Sun 10 Feb 08
A major problem with NATO committment in Afghanistan is that no-one has actually fronted up with the reasons that NATO is fighting there.
The Afghans didn't attack the US, it was an attack by mainly Saudi nationals whose spiritual and secular leader happened to be holed up in Afghanistan. If the Taliban had known what his organisation was planning they would have kicked him out on the spot.
I suspect that a lot of NATO countries have spotted that Afghanistan is key to the encirclement of Iran and key to the ability of US energy companies to get their hands on the massive reserves of oil and gas in Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan. The US invasion of Afghanistan was to create a client state for the US in this strategic and energy rich region.
The US wants Iran because not only does it have gas and oil reserves in the Persian Gulf, it also controls oil and gas reserves in the Caspian Sea, part of the Caspian basin energy reserves, or energy and cash bonanza, if you're a US oil company.
Apart from that, Iran controls the Strait of Hormuz which is the only tanker route out of the Gulf and the route across Iran is the easiest land route to get a pipeline or pipelines up to Turkmenistan or Uzbekistan which both lie north of AfghanistanAn Iranian pipeline would forestall any pipeline construction north into Russia or, god forbid, east into China.
Forget "Nuclyar", Iran is the oil prize which the US desperately wants to control and control of Afghanistan is part of that strategy
With that in mind, the other NATO countries are not interested in throwing men and money away to support a US energy war.
"...now it has been tasked to fight what many believe is the wrong war in the wrong place at the wrong time."
Our problem is that our masters failed to ask the right questions on why they should fight in Afghanistan before throwing in troops and money.
The other NATO members are much smarter.
A major problem with NATO committment in Afghanistan is that no-one has actually fronted up with the reasons that NATO is fighting there.
The Afghans didn't attack the US, it was an attack by mainly Saudi nationals whose spiritual and secular leader happened to be holed up in Afghanistan. If the Taliban had known what his organisation was planning they would have kicked him out on the spot.
I suspect that a lot of NATO countries have spotted that Afghanistan is key to the encirclement of Iran and key to the ability of US energy companies to get their hands on the massive reserves of oil and gas in Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan. The US invasion of Afghanistan was to create a client state for the US in this strategic and energy rich region.
The US wants Iran because not only does it have gas and oil reserves in the Persian Gulf, it also controls oil and gas reserves in the Caspian Sea, part of the Caspian basin energy reserves, or energy and cash bonanza, if you're a US oil company.
Apart from that, Iran controls the Strait of Hormuz which is the only tanker route out of the Gulf and the route across Iran is the easiest land route to get a pipeline or pipelines up to Turkmenistan or Uzbekistan which both lie north of AfghanistanAn Iranian pipeline would forestall any pipeline construction north into Russia or, god forbid, east into China.
Forget "Nuclyar", Iran is the oil prize which the US desperately wants to control and control of Afghanistan is part of that strategy
With that in mind, the other NATO countries are not interested in throwing men and money away to support a US energy war.
"...now it has been tasked to fight what many believe is the wrong war in the wrong place at the wrong time."
Our problem is that our masters failed to ask the right questions on why they should fight in Afghanistan before throwing in troops and money.
The other NATO members are much smarter.
Posted by: James Tolan, Irvine on 1:15am Fri 15 Feb 08
The Taliban were not in any way responsible for the 9/11 attack .The Hi jackers were Saudi
Arabians.
The Taliban visited America in 1997 and 2000/1 to negotiate an oil pipe line 'treaty'.
Bush promised them a 'Carpet of Gold' if 'terms
were agreed. They got a Carpet of Bombs for refusing American 'foreplay'. Osama Bin Laden
was CIA controlled; and if alive is still their
man. NATO did not beat the Russians in so called Cold War. Russians Financial decline done that. Now the Russians have reversed their
decline are a power to contend with.
Jim
-----------------
Please use 'Jim' as postname. Do not print my
my full surname.
The Taliban were not in any way responsible for the 9/11 attack .The Hi jackers were Saudi
Arabians.
The Taliban visited America in 1997 and 2000/1 to negotiate an oil pipe line 'treaty'.
Bush promised them a 'Carpet of Gold' if 'terms
were agreed. They got a Carpet of Bombs for refusing American 'foreplay'. Osama Bin Laden
was CIA controlled; and if alive is still their
man. NATO did not beat the Russians in so called Cold War. Russians Financial decline done that. Now the Russians have reversed their
decline are a power to contend with.
Jim
-----------------
Please use 'Jim' as postname. Do not print my
my full surname.