THE WORLD, and especially the US, will be watching intently today for any sign of change in Cuba as the island nation embarks on a new stage of its "Revolucion" with the official installation of Raul Castro at its helm. Looking for change in Cuba, however, is a tedious exercise; it comes at a snail's pace, tentatively, hesitantly and not at all in a revolutionary manner.

"What is transition? Losing one's identity?" scoffed the Communist Party newspaper Granma as President George W Bush called for a "democratic transition" in Havana. "They the Bush administration began by referring to a peaceful' transition, but quickly dropped that adjective. Some of the administration's spokesmen, in their meetings with the Miami mafia, have been very blunt in calling for a rapid transition."

The reference to the Miami mafia was a swipe at exiles, many of them Cuban Americans descended from leaders of the US-backed Batista dictatorship overthrown by the revolution almost half a century ago. The paper reiterated the regime's claim that the Bush administration was seeking to destroy the revolution, and questioned what structural changes or transition were required by Cuba that had not taken place at its very start on January 1, 1959.

"How can one forget that the most radical revolutionary measures, which transformed the very foundations of our state, were adopted with the blessing of the vast majority of our people?" it asked.

That was the official line. However, pressure has been mounting for a breath of fresh air in Cuba's stifling economic climate, and this will surely be on Raul Castro's mind today as he is chosen by the 31-member council of state to succeed his brother, Fidel, as president. Having had provisional control of the country since Fidel fell ill in mid-2006, Raul has had plenty of time to work out an agenda and, as a man more inclined to delegate than his brother, has talked of a period of "collective leadership".

"Nobody will ever again have as much authority as Fidel has had, because of who he is, because he made a true revolution," he has said.

He has also been quoted as saying he envisages a "better form of socialism" and more "democratic" model in a post-Fidel Cuba. But is he the man to deliver it? Raul was a hardline communist long before his brother became one, and, in the early days, whenever things began to go wrong for the revolution, Fidel would warn Cubans that if they didn't like him, they knew who was waiting for his job.

Raul is said to be a doting father: he had four children with his wife Vilma Espin, a fellow guerrilla fighter whom he married in 1959 and who died last year. But older Cubans still see him as a hardliner. He is not as charismatic as Fidel, and recent reports portraying Raul as the more accessible, fun-loving, party-going brother could well be revolutionary spin. He is, after all, head of the armed forces.

Still, at 76, Raul may have mellowed; in one speech he acknowledged that Cuban salaries are not enough to live on and appeared to urge the very structural changes derided by Granma last week. How to explain this apparent dichotomy? It depends on the interpretation of "structural change": it could be seen as a hint that he would like to see more private enterprise and foreign investment and less state involvement in industry; or it could simply be a call for greater productivity. Though he may have been trying to appease reformers and hardliners alike, Raul has offered little hope for swift action either way. "We would all like to move faster, but it isn't always possible," he told the national assembly in December.

Some minor reforms have taken place since Raul took provisional control in 2006, but the crucial issues of housing, transport, and low pay - raised by Cubans at thousands of government-approved, grassroots meetings across the country last year - have yet to be tackled. Nor has the dual-currency system, which has caused price distortions. Under Raul, import duties on home appliances and car parts have been relaxed, and prices paid by the state to milk and meat producers have been raised, while police have turned a blind eye to a proliferation of private taxis - an indication that the regime is trying to address the grievances of Cubans who are simply trying to make an honest living but are hindered by archaic legislation.

"We agree with those who have drawn our attention to excessive bans and legal measures, which can cause more harm than good," Raul told the national assembly. "More than a few of them are out of date and behind every misguided ban you will find a breach of the law."

SOME US observers have speculated that Cuba may eventually turn to a mixed economy while keeping a communist government, like Vietnam and China. Vice-president Carlos Lage, the architect of limited economic reforms introduced in the 1990s after aid from Moscow dried up on the collapse of the Soviet Union, is the man best placed to oversee such a change, but has flatly ruled out any such a move. This is probably because Fidel, who will still be looking over Raul's shoulder, is known to be aghast at the current Chinese model - a blend of the worst traits of totalitarianism and capitalism in the now-retired Lider Maximo's view.

Despite all its shortages, Cuba has enjoyed a spurt of economic growth in recent years thanks to Venezuelan oil and investment, while Cuba has provided Venezuela with healthcare and teachers. This Caribbean partnership has alarmed America, as Venezuelan president Hugo Chavez seeks to break US hegemony over the continent and bring about Simon Bolivar's dream of a united Latin America.

Cuban exiles see Chavez's close friendship with Fidel as detrimental to any prospect of reform in Cuba, as Venezuelan aid has buoyed the Cuban economy. The relationship is unlikely to fade with Fidel's retirement.

Dr Samuel Moncada, the Venezuelan ambassador to Britain, argues that his country's special relationship with Cuba is not only mutually beneficial but has extended to other parts of the Caribbean and is changing the way these countries view their place in the world. Whereas historically they were economically and culturally linked to London or Washington, there were now signs of increasing co-operation between them.

"Never before have we been so close," Moncada told the Sunday Herald. There are now 20,000 Cuban doctors in Venezuela, and while Chavez's critics have accused the president of wasting the country's oil resources in a bid to supplant US influence in the region with his own, Moncada said the co-operation was good for Cuba and good for Venezuela.

"The question is, which would you rather do? Spend your oil windfall on saving the eyesight of your people, or spend it on mansions in Miami, as Venezuelan leaders did in the past?"

While Venezuela has been accused of mimicking Cuba's revolution, Raul Castro could well take a page from Chavez's book by seeking a mandate from the Cuban people in the polls. The democratic option has served Chavez - who once led an abortive military coup - very well, and he enjoys widespread popularity despite a setback in December in a referendum on proposed constitutional reforms which would have enabled him to seek re-election indefinitely.

Multi-party elections in Cuba would indeed be a revolutionary step, one too many for old hardliner Raul, perhaps, but not necessarily for his 56-year-old deputy Lage, who has long been tipped for the leadership and is said to be at ease in Western diplomatic circles. Lage would appear to be more palatable to Washington as a man to do business with than Raul, who has repeatedly tried to engage in dialogue with the US, but to no avail. This is because - under the 1996 Helms-Burton Act - one of the conditions for suspension of the US trade embargo on Cuba is that any transitional government in Havana must not include either Castro brother.

In any case, it is hard to gauge how keen Raul is to seek a thaw with Washington; he has suggested he might wait for the next president to be installed to see if the US "will keep the absurd, illegal and failed policies against Cuba, or accept the olive branch we extended". If rebuffed by a new president, he says, Cuba would be "willing to deal with their hostile policies for another 50 years if necessary".

He may not have to: US Democratic front-runner Barack Obama said in a debate with Hillary Clinton last Thursday that, if elected, he would be prepared to meet Fidel's successor. "This moment, this opportunity when Fidel Castro has finally stepped down, I think, is one that we should try to take advantage of," he said.

CLINTON disagreed, saying she would prefer to wait for evidence of change in Cuba before meeting his successor. The Republican front-runner John McCain attacked Obama's stance as "dangerously naive", saying that the US must remain committed to its current policies towards Cuba. McCain has been endorsed as the Republican candidate by Lincoln Diaz-Balart, a Cuban-born congressman who is the son of a former Batista official and nephew of Fidel Castro's first wife, Mirta Diaz-Balart. Obama retorted that McCain "would give us four more years of the same - policies that have failed US interests and the Cuban people for the past 50 years".

Meanwhile, Miami Cubans watch and wait - and argue with each other.

"If anti-Castro Miami Cubans really believed what they say, they would stop eating Chinese food and buying Chinese goods," wrote one reader to the Miami Herald. "You're buying from communists and screaming embargo for Cuba."

Another reader wrote: "Cubans on the island call the secret police the Taliban, because nothing has changed their minds in 50 years. Ironically, many here fear Cubans being free, as they will become much more formidable and powerful in world affairs."

An interesting point; for while there is speculation Cuba might fall under the influence of the US or become like Puerto Rico, there is no guarantee long-established Miami Cubans would flood back to the island or seek to live there. The possible emergence of a "Greater Cuba" in the future is a prospect US neo-cons driven by deep-seated hatred of the Castros would surely not relish, and probably have not even thought of.