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October 12, 2008 Est 1999 Scotland's award-winning independent newspaper
China is fighting disaster … and for its standing in a world community that is ultimately complicit in causing Burma’s situation
By Diplomatic Editor Trevor Royle

TWO COUNTRIES affected by natural disasters; two countries divided by the way in which they have responded to the aftermath. Both China and Burma have seen thousands of their people die in two unrelated but eerily similar catastrophes and both have dealt with them in their own way.

As has become all too horribly clear, the military junta in Burma has reacted in the paranoid style that secretive, undemocratic administrations always employ when confronted by the intrusion of the outside world. They will accept aid but not those who administer it. Outsiders might encourage questioning and doubt.

China, on the other hand, has been reasonably transparent with its efforts and the scale, and intensity of the rescue operation has been impressive. By the end of last week the police claimed that all of the affected counties and townships in Sichuan province had been contacted and that getting aid to them was not a problem.

There has even been a willingness to criticise where criticism seems to be due. Western diplomats have been surprised by the way in which officials have responded to local anger about the poor quality of the many schools in which children perished. It soon became apparent that over 7000 classroom buildings had been destroyed and that in one instance in the city of Juyuan nearly 900 children lost their lives when their school building collapsed within seconds of the first tremor. While accepting blame is part of Chinese political culture, it is often a tactic of last resort.

Rescue teams have also been allowed to enter China with diplomatic channels being cleared for the admission of specialist search-and-rescue teams from Japan, South Korea and Singapore. All this is in stark contrast to the situation in Burma where aid agencies and the UN are being stymied by the junta's unwillingness to allow specialists to enter the country. While the generals insist that the Burmese authorities are more than capable of handling disaster relief, the facts speak otherwise. The World Health Organisation has already reported the first cases of cholera in the stricken delta area.

The reasons for the difference in approach are not difficult to discern. Ahead lie the Olympic Games in Beijing and China is desperate for them to be a showcase for the burgeoning national economy. There was considerable loss of face over the demonstrations which accompanied the travels of the Olympic torch and Chinese diplomats have been anxious to make good any damage created by the situation in Tibet.

In other words, there is a vested interest in making sure that Chinese efforts are put in a good light to offset any criticism that might be voiced later. China knows that it is in the international spotlight and needs to be seen to be getting it right. From being a secretive communist state with a command culture it has been slowly embracing the free market economy and millions of dollars of inward investment could be at stake.

No such worries encumber the Burmese junta. In the international community it might be ostracised but it has been far down the list of countries to be tackled. No action was taken to support the Buddhist monks when they rose against the generals. The rightful leader Aung San Suu Kyi languishes under house arrest, and corruption reigns supreme. That's why the rest of the world cannot act: having been complicit in allowing the junta to remain in power, it is too late to do anything now.

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Posted by: Roderick V. Louis, near Vancouver, BC, Canada on 10:54pm Sat 17 May 08
"BURMA'S SUFFERING AND AT-RISK PEOPLES & ITS THOUSANDS OF FORMERLY PROTESTING IMPRISONED MONKS WARRANT ***AUTHENTIC*** SUPPORTIVE ACTIONS- NOT COP-OUTS- FROM DEVELOPED WORLD/ASEAN NATIONS!!"

A coordinated legitimately assertive developed world/Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN) nations' strategy towards Burma is needed.

Developed world & Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN) nations' politicians & bureaucrats can either play hardball with Burma's leaders, or 'they can go home' to continue their too-often practice of false-image self-aggrandizement while decadently->>> never endingly->>> discussing sanctions & the like over tax-payer paid-for drinks in tax-payer paid-for 6 star conference hotels....

Playing hardball calls for REAL-ACTION, not only continuing previous tactics: nations' leaders/bureaucrats periodically pontificating emptily in public forums; standing on street corners with signature tablets, asking passers-by to 'support the
end to human rights abuses' in "XYZ" country; or- as recently->>> "asking" for permission to save many 10's of thousands- or perhaps several millions- of lives....

Hardball tactics against the Burmese junta ideally would be predicated on developed world (and if they'll play along-ASEAN nations) submitting an ultimatum to the Burmese junta, & accompanying this (or else after receiving refusal(s) from Burma's generals) would require threats of (or actually):

- militarily seizing a couple of Burma's strategic airports near Rangoon, & 1 or 2 seaports; +

- inserting enough commando and infantry units to effectively carry out disaster relief and reconstruction in the Rangoon/Irrawaddy delta region; &

- militarily isolating, with air-power- Burma's new capital city; &

- demanding the Burmese junta immediately embark upon (developed world/ ASEAN nations') supervised talks with protesters on how the country will be most efficiently moved to a legitimately democratic and rule-of-law system...

Russia would have nothing to lose & everything to gain prestige & international-relati
ons wise by supporting the above tactics, either in principle or by participating.

Japan providing logistical support to the above could go a long way to rectifying regional sensitivity towards Japan due to WW II occurrences.

With its extensive history as well as allies and Commonwealth colleagues in the region, the United Kingdom is in an unparalleled position to take leadership of the above international strategies against the Burmese junta.

The likelihood of suicide bombers and roadside bombs being used as opposition to this type of exercise are- compared to Iraq and Afghanistan- nil.

Logistically NATO nations comfortably have the capacities to carry out such a task successfully. The only real obstacles are lack of gumption and a deficiency of political principles among developed world/NATO countries' politicians and leaders.

The United States lend/leasing several of its navy's ships + their full complement of weaponry/aircraft) to the United Kingdom's Royal Navy- such as 2 of the US's 'medium-sized' aircraft carriers,

- USS Makin Island (LHD 8) (nearing commissioning)

- USS Iwo Jima (LHD 7) (commissioned 2001)

would enable meaningful multi-national participation establishing an extensive naval based air-power presence off the coast of Burma, necessary to carry out above the above type of military intervention disaster relief mission.

Additional support from the the US Navy in the form of it assigning to the mission two or three of its 'super carrier' aircraft carrier battle groups' would likely be needed to maintain a 'no fly' exclusion zone around Rangoon/the Irrawaddy delta region- IE air dominance for the mission- and to enable the efficient elimination of inland Burmese junta/military targets- in the case of the Burmese junta putting up a fight...

Two such US Navy super carrier battle groups are nearby to Burma- only a few days sailing time away- based near Qatar and Okinawa, Japan.

The US is too preoccupied & man-power committed in Iraq + Afghanistan & is perceived as 'persona non gratta' by too many around the world for it to be productively perceived as taking the lead in any hardball tactics against Burma's generals and disaster relief type intervention in the Rangoon/Irrawaddy delta region.

But it could still constructively avail/provide its naval/air resources to above types of strategies against the Burmese junta- tacitly under a UK Nato command.

CHINA OUGHT TO BE MADE TO FEEL SAFE & NOT CRITICIZED WHILE REMAINING ON THE SIDELINES OF BURMA ISSUES.

Developed world & ASEAN nations ought to be striving for, at best, China's acquiescence from any UN Security Council votes... as well as its non-participation in any military endeavors that may or may not be prosecuted by the developed world/ASEAN
against Burma.

While a properly functioning democratic, rule-of-law political framework is desirable for any country, China with its vast size & enormous, ethnically-varied population needs to be able to economically develop more extensively & become more homogeneous before it can reasonably be expected to attempt the changeover to full-democracy.

China has a perceptible requirement to be able to shift to full-democracy from the position of a developed cohesive nation- which it presently isn't- & at least not one in which 2/3 of the country is populated by largely illiterate, not-worldly-knowledg
ed, unaccustomed to democratic structures, agrarian, peasant-type peoples... peoples without enough of a grasp of democratic systems, or wider-world generally, to enable them to be able to utilize their franchise + a fully-democratic political system effectively.

China's 'Communist' Party leaders are right to be concerned that full-democracy too soon could result in chaos across their country.... & by extension the rest of the world. They are right to impugn that 2/3 of China's 1.3 billion people- through no fault of their own- do not have the ability to avoid being manipulated by unsavory elements seeking right-wing dictatorial powers...

China's leadership- which is encouraging their nation's speed of light economic development & its greater political and legal integration with developed nations- are worldly-aware enough that they surely realize their pivotal nation should, ideally, significantly intervene in Burma.

But they likely also acutely recognize the extreme risks for China, internally, if it did.

Due to China's diverse & very fragmented peoples, with their endemic ignorance of 'how' a democratic country can work- from the civic on up to national govt level-China ought to be left out of the Burma problems as much as possible, as any encouragement- or enforcement- of democracy in Burma by China could cultivate chaos in China... down the road.

The many millions of Burma's suffering peoples in the Rangoon/Irrawaddy delta region & the thousands of Monks still imprisoned after their protests last autumn warrant immediate, firm & SUBSTANTIVE TANGIBLE ACTIONS from developed world/ASEAN nations.

With a little common sense, this could be demonstrated militarily- with effective and productive results both within Burma & for its region- without developed world/ASEAN nations conflicting with the region's natural leader: China.

Roderick V. Louis,
near Vancouver, BC, Canada
rvlouis@patientempow
ermentsociety.com
Posted by: Kent, China on 12:50am Sun 18 May 08
Are you human, seriously? The government of China is made of people, not machines! People do have compassion! Why do you have to question the motivation when what matters is that the government is doing an amazing job helping the needed ones. What have you done, jacka$$? I bet you really endorse Bush's "watch this swing" comment after Katrina.
Posted by: Tom on 2:41pm Sun 18 May 08
Let Canada send troops. We Americans would like our government to take care of our needs, too.
Posted by: yeej, Toronto, Canada on 4:13pm Sun 18 May 08
Please! No invasions, no unilateral military actions and no gun boat diplomacy, ever! Western people, being self-righteous, arrogant and feel superior to others, is always getting it wrong! For you people still retain this "I am the master" colonial thinking deep down in your mind. This is absolutely what turns all other people off.
Peaceful initiatives, yes; patience, yes; invasions, no; absolutely no. Your think you have guns? They also have guns. Military invasions could turn well intended rescue missions into disaster and more people get killed instead of being saved.
Posted by: tresy, USA on 5:46am Mon 19 May 08
Trevor Royle.. another b*got - when China does something good, bigot like Traitor..I mean Trevor ,considers it propaganda.How pitiful is that for the West to think about it? Sign of insecurity! Did you forget that Brits invaded Tibet? and China?Did I say Iraq?
Posted by: Grande, Singapore on 4:43pm Mon 19 May 08
The Burmese people are begging for miltary intervention. Cyclone hit Villagers had heard that the US, UK & French Naval are at the coast of Burma....They are wondering why have they not come yet as they are waiting to give them a hero's welcome. Please help this people that are dying NOW! Don't worry about the Junta as they got no balls to really fight and the burmese people will not support them. The soldiers will turn sides as their families are being hurt too. To President Bush....this is the time to redeem yourself and retire as a hero of the burmese people! I lived in Burma for a decade and believe me the people wants your help NOW!
Posted by: HYChan, Manchester on 8:24pm Mon 19 May 08
As an ex-pat Chinese, I find your article deeply offensive. Your inference is that China and her ordinary citizens, are simply doing the "rescue effort" just for show, because of the Olympics. Has it ever crossed your bigoted mind that the government and ordinary Chinese actually care about the welfare of its people, and that, like any other responsible governement, that it is trying to do the "right thing". If we could exchange the Olympics for the earthquake not happening - do you really think there is a choice?
Posted by: Grande, Singapore on 6:07am Tue 20 May 08
To HYChan, I'm a chinese by race and I have to say how naive you are. I do have to admit though that your premier looks a little sincere. But considering the history of this ruling party, I have my suspicions too. Anyway, my heart goes out to the ordinary chinese people & victims of the quake.
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