FIRST MINISTER Alex Salmond's proposal for an independence referendum has
suffered a blow after a new opinion poll shows a majority of Scots would
vote against his plan. The snapshot, which was based on the exact question
floated in the SNP Executive s consultation on independence, found 50% of
respondents would decline to support separation.
The findings appear to support the SNP leader's belief that delaying a
referendum is his party s best chance of winning an independence vote.
The poll findings follow the publication of the Executive's plan for a
national conversation on the constitution, which backs the idea of a
referendum in 2010. Salmond's preferred option is to ask Scots whether they
agree or disagree that his administration should negotiate a settlement
with the government of the United Kingdom so that Scotland becomes an
independent state .
A poll conducted by TNS System Three, which focused on the question floated
by Salmond, found 50% of those polled disagreeing with the proposition. A
minority 35% agreed that a settlement should be negotiated, while 15%
said they did not know.
On gender, while 42% of men agreed with the SNP's question, only 30% of
women followed suit. In terms of age, 52% of 18- to 24-year-olds agreed that
Salmond should negotiate an independence
settlement with Westminster. By contrast, opposition to Salmond s question
was greatest in the 65-plus bracket, with 59% of respondents saying they
would not want any negotiation.
The findings, which were taken from a sample of nearly 1000 people, also
revealed that 63% of the professional AB class did not agree with the SNP
question.
When broken down by region, the survey found support for the proposition to
be highest in the south of Scotland and the Highlands, but lowest in Glasgow
and the west.
The poll is a setback for Salmond as he prepares to unveil his programme
for Scotland on Wednesday, but it does appear to vindicate his tactic to
delay a referendum on independence until support grows for separation.
Chris Eynon, the managing director of TNS System Three, said: "This first
test of public opinion using the ballot wording proposed by the SNP shows
just why they have opted to play the waiting game."
An SNP spokesperson said: "This is very encouraging, showing that support
for independence is strong and growing. It is the highest level of polling
support for independence in six months, reflecting the impressive ratings of
the SNP in government.
"It is a very substantial base, which will build further as the National
Conversation moves forward."
A spokesman for Scottish Labour said: "The result of the last election was
clear; most Scots do not support independence.
"Even this new poll, which is based on Alex Salmond's own question, shows
the same result."