THE SUNDAY Herald today launches its Eat Local campaign as a response to the growing global food crisis. Scotland could have a particularly important role to play in future as global warming damages the ability of other regions of the world to grow food.

DATA FILE ARTICLES: * 2008: The year of global food crisis * Mother of all bubbles to burst * Eat Local: Sunday Herald Campaign * Report: World Food Situation * Hunger & Health * Report: Food Outlook

As a relatively rich, developed country, Scotland is hardly likely to experience mass starvation, but it will have to undergo some radical changes.

The UK Office for National Statistics says that the average price of all foods has increased by 6.6% over the past year. The biggest increases, of between 11% and 36%, were for butter, eggs, milk, bread and potatoes.

The cost of a supermarket trolley containing 100 basic food items has risen by £13.63 to £183.28 over the past two years, according to a survey for The Grocer magazine. The cost of half a dozen eggs jumped from £1.01 to £1.39, while a 800g loaf of white bread leapt from 83p to £1.10.

The prices of chicken, fish, cheese, vegetables and fruit have also increased, along with sugar, coffee and wine. One supermarket survey suggests that some types of pasta have increased by up to 50% in price since last February.

And the prices are forecast to keep on rising. The OECD club of 30 developed countries has predicted increases in the cost of food of between 20% and 50% over the next decade.

John Scott, the Scottish Conservative MSP and Ayrshire hill farmer, thinks the increases could be even higher. "The era of cheap food is coming to an end, and that has huge implications for those on fixed incomes," he said.

"There is a realistic possibility that there won't be bread on the shelves," he added, claiming that mounting concern about food security was "just a nice way of saying that food scarcity is just around the corner."

In the future, he suggests, global food production could be centred on the belt of fertile land in the northern hemisphere, blessed by rain, that lies between Bordeaux and Caithness.

"Land is going to have to be brought back into production to feed an ever-expanding world population,'' he said. Scotland is singularly well placed to play its part in feeding an ever more hungry world.'' Others, however, point out that Scotland has its own problems to solve first. A pioneering analysis for the environmental group WWF Scotland revealed that eating meat was responsible for 44% of the environmental impact of the nation's diet.

Globally, meat is a hugely inefficient way of delivering calories, with eight kilos of grain required to produce one kilo of beef. Although Highland beef and venison may have a lower impact, much of the meat consumed in Scotland has been imported.

"There is more to sustainability than eating local food and reducing food miles," said Adam Harrison, a food policy specialist with WWF Scotland. "Eating more fresh and seasonal fruit and vegetables, and less processed and packaged food as well as less meat and dairy produce, will be as good for us as it is for the planet."

Over the coming weeks the Sunday Herald will look at how Scotland can adopt the buy local philosophy and what that means for our readers. In the meantime use the comment function below and let us know what you think.