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July 06, 2009 Est 1999 Scotland's award-winning independent newspaper
41% of Scots back the break-up of the union
By Paul Hutcheon
Scottish Political Editor

INDEPENDENCE HAS taken a dramatic lead in a new opinion poll on Scotland's constitutional future.

An exclusive TNS System Three poll has found that 41% of Scots want the SNP government to negotiate an independence settlement, compared to 40% who are opposed to breaking up the UK.

The extraordinary poll results mark one of the few occasions in which independence has outpolled support for the union.

First minister Alex Salmond said the result showed Scots were now ready to vote for a separate Scottish state in a referendum.

The Scottish government last year laid out its plans in a white paper for a referendum on independence.

TNS System Three has since conducted a tracker poll based on the SNP administration's favoured referendum question, namely whether "The Scottish government should negotiate a settlement with the government of the United Kingdom so that Scotland becomes an independent state".

The latest findings, which were gathered between March 26 and April 4, show that 41% of the 977 respondents agreed that the Scottish government should negotiate an independence settlement.

This contrasts with 40% of people who did not agree with the SNP's number one priority, while 19% said they did not know how they would vote in a referendum.

TNS's first poll on the SNP government's question, in August, revealed that 50% of Scots were opposed to independence, compared to 35% of respondents who were in favour.

The polling firm's next snapshot of opinion, in November, revealed the gap had narrowed to four points, with opposition at 44% and support at 40%. Support for a negotiated independence settlement has risen by 6% since August, while opposition to separation has dropped by 10% over the same period. The number of "don't knows" has increased by 4% in eight months.

The results are broadly in line with polling data published last week by Scottish Opinion, which found that 41% of respondents approved of independence, with 43% disapproving.

The lead for independence will fuel calls by the Nationalist administration for MSPs to back a constitutional referendum. Salmond has made a poll in 2010 the key plank of his administration.

The referendum policy recently received a boost after entrepreneur Sir Tom Hunter called for a plebiscite on independence.

The increased support for independence comes on the eve of Salmond taking his government's "national conversation" to Brussels later this month.

The seminar will see the First Minister try to persuade a European audience of the benefits of Scotland being a full member state of the EU.

First minister Alex Salmond said: "The poll is further and dramatic evidence that as the SNP delivers good government in the devolved areas, so support for Scotland to be governed equally well in all areas with independence is surging.

And the poll clearly indicates that Westminster attempts to bully Scotland and the Scottish government are also boosting support for equality for Scotland, and a parliament with full powers.

"People want a government that will speak up for Scotland - not shut up for London. It is a tremendous boost for the SNP in the run up to our conference next week - it will have our opponents choking on their cornflakes."

Labour MSP Jackie Baillie said: "There is no doubt that the vast majority of Scots don't want an end to the Union, and the SNP are well aware of that. Scots want to walk tall in the Union, not walk out."

The convener of the Independence Convention, Elaine C Smith, said: "This poll is welcome, but the support for independence is something we have known about for some time. The Scottish people must now have their right to speak in a referendum."

TNS managing director Chris Eynon said: "This represents a very dramatic turnaround over the period of eight months since August 2007. The poll suggests that, based on the SNP's performance in power since the May election, public confidence in the ability of Scotland to run its own affairs as an independent state has increased."

The polling data also comes as new figures appear to show that 500,000 households in Scotland will be adversely affected by tax changes in the UK government's 2007 budget.

Prime minister Gordon Brown has been criticised for abolishing the 10 pence rate of tax, which had been introduced to benefit low income-workers.

According to figures produced by the Scottish government, 680,000 households north of the border will experience a decrease in income, while 500,000 will witness a fall in their net income.

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