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October 11, 2008 Est 1999 Scotland's award-winning independent newspaper
It’s catch-22 for the Nationalists

SCOTLAND REMAINS split on independence but there is a much higher level of support for it than in the past, according to results from the latest poll.

The increase in support occurred in the latter part of last year, unsurprisingly just after the SNP came to power. While the SNP will be pleased by this, the balance does little to assure victory in a referendum.

The one-off boost for independence after the election raises the question of what is required to further increase its support.

This poll reminds us the relationship between a party's popularity and support for its constitutional policy is not straightforward. There may be few signs the SNP's honeymoon is over, but their problem is that support for independence currently depends on more than their success.

Meanwhile, Labour's abysmal performance may be also stalling the onward march of independence. Voters may be content to see Alex Salmond govern Scotland but have doubts about whether the country is fit for independence when they view the political system as a whole. Choosing a constitutional preference involves more than choosing a governing party.

James Mitchell, Professor of Politics, University of Strathclyde.

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Posted by: Los Angeles, Edinburgh on 12:47am Sun 6 Jul 08

I shall wait for my weekly fix of MacWhirter!
Posted by: Vivas on 12:50am Sun 6 Jul 08
"The one-off boost for independence after the election raises the question of what is required to further increase its support."

If thats the question, then here are some of the more obvious answers.

Answer. 2010
Answer. David Cameron
Answer. English Conservative government.
Posted by: Duns Scotus, Berwick on 12:57am Sun 6 Jul 08
Not Catch 22 - more a case of being spoilt for choice. Even if a minority vote for independence NEGOTIATIONS in 2010, the trend will still move inexorably towards Scotland rejoining the world after a 300-year slumber doon a dunny.

The onus is now on the Onionists to dry their tears and justify staying in a discredited Union.

In sales there is a fixed sequence of events to achieve the sale. The mnemonic is AIDCA -

Attention
Interest
Desire
Conviction
Action

In the independence debate what has beena achieved so far is:

Attention (done years ago)
Interest (done years ago)
Desire (steadily growing)
Conviction (not there yet)
Action (2010 is the opportunity)

In maintaining the discredited Union the situation is:

Attention (only come to the fore in the last year)
Interest (has been around for 300 years but always under the surface)
Desire (reducing steadily since the 1950s)
Action (very little except feeble attempts at sectarianism, Nazi jibes and flag waving)
Posted by: Duns Scotus, Berwick on 1:00am Sun 6 Jul 08
oops! Freudian slip with omission of Conviction in the Union in my earlier post.

Come to think about it, even Unionists are lacking conviction. They simply don't know what to think.
Posted by: Los Angeles, Edinburgh on 1:09am Sun 6 Jul 08
Duns Scotus
even Unionists are lacking conviction
Once they are accused of sleaze conviction is the only cure.

What's all this nonsense about a new Labour leader - has MacWhirter the skinny?
Posted by: nostress, grangemouth on 1:22am Sun 6 Jul 08
While the SNP will be pleased by this, the balance does little to assure victory in a referendum.

Hmm...you could just as easily have written "the balance does little to assure defeat for the SNP in a referendum."

Voters may be content to see Alex Salmond govern Scotland but have doubts about whether the country is fit for independence when they view the political system as a whole.

Wow...this is a new slant...before it was always about the competence of the SNP, now it's about the political system as a whole? We just cannae win with you lot can we? Curtice yer a polution! And you're supposed to be impartial??? Don't make me laugh!

Posted by: nostress, grangemouth on 1:47am Sun 6 Jul 08
My apologies to Curtice - it should of course be "Mitchell yer a pollution!" (Just had a vision of a wee specky guy in mind - old age catching up with me)
Posted by: Andy Murray, Wimbledon on 1:47am Sun 6 Jul 08
Voters may ... have doubts about whether the country is fit for independence ...


There's nae doot aboot it - we're no fit for independence as long as we keep votin for the numpties. Glasgow East will be telling.
Posted by: Wullie on 6:04am Sun 6 Jul 08
Voters may be content to see Alex Salmond govern Scotland but have doubts about whether the country is fit for independence when they view the political system as a whole.

What patronising cr*p from the intellectualy superior professor to tell all of us that the voters will have doubts about the Scot's having the ability to govern themselves.

Well puff bag, who do you think would be better able to look after us. The superior and ever so more able the Engurlish?

Where on earth did the Herald drag Haw Haw,s like you from?

Posted by: Neil, Aberdeenshire on 8:32am Sun 6 Jul 08
Please keep in mind that Strathclyde is going to have a round of lay-offs. I'm sure the good professor is just trying to please his masters and keep his job.
Posted by: McSomeone, Scotland on 8:46am Sun 6 Jul 08
Voters may be content to see Alex Salmond govern Scotland but have doubts about whether the country is fit for independence when they view the political system as a whole. Choosing a constitutional preference involves more than choosing a governing party.


Typical arguments by the feudal overlords, 1) you're not ready for it yet. 2) You don't have anyone capable of governing. 3) The political system isn't capable of handling independence.

Now where did I hear these excuses before? Oh yes, the colonies. They weren't fit to govern themselves either. Amazing how successful some of them have turn out to be.
Posted by: beckypumps, fife on 9:01am Sun 6 Jul 08
Yet another slow news day.bit of a non story this.
Posted by: Duns Scotus, Berwick on 9:59am Sun 6 Jul 08
The voters of Glasgow East should be made aware of this:

From The Times 4th July, 2008
Is your MP on the roll of shame?

The vast majority of MPs - 146 of the 172 - who voted to keep the second home allowance, which allows MPs to buy items on the "John Lewis list", were Labour, including 33 ministers. The list of Scottish MPs (all Labour) is:

Gordon Banks (Ochil & Perthshire South)
Tom Clarke (Coatbridge, Chryston & Bellshill)
Michael Connarty (Linlithgow & Falkirk East)
Ian Davidson (Glasgow South West)
Brian Donohoe (Ayrshire Central)
David Hamilton (Midlothian)
Jimmy Hood (Lanark & Hamilton East)
Adam Ingram (East Kilbride, Strathaven & Lesmahagow)
Eric Joyce (Falkirk)
Tommy McAvoy (Rutherglen & Hamilton West)
James McGovern (Dundee West)
Anne McGuire (Stirling)
Rosemary McKenna (Cumbernauld, Kilsyth & Kirkintilloch East)
Sandra Osborne (Ayr, Carrick & Cumnock)
John Robertson (Glasgow North West)
Jimmy Sheridan (Paisley & Renfrewshire North)
Gavin Strang (Edinburgh East)
Posted by: Andrew Robertson, Dundee on 10:33am Sun 6 Jul 08
Let's just get shot of Labour at the General Election - vote in more SNP MPs and then get oor referendum on track.

let's face it - with Labour we will never get any kinda of referendum!
Posted by: John Leven, Leven Fife on 10:46am Sun 6 Jul 08
Vivas

You forgot one

Answer Oil at $150 to $200 per barrel.
Posted by: Los Angeles, Edinburgh on 11:00am Sun 6 Jul 08
McSomeone
Now where did I hear these excuses before? Oh yes, the colonies. They weren't fit to govern themselves either. Amazing how successful some of them have turn out to be.
Good reply.

Just as you thought we were patronised enough along comes another "I know what's good for you" pundit.

The struggle for radical political reform goes on!

Posted by: stonehaven on 12:06pm Sun 6 Jul 08
I failed to spot any "catch 22" logic in the article.

Sounds more like a win-win situation for the SNP if you ask me.
Posted by: Clarinda, Perth on 12:54pm Sun 6 Jul 08
The letter-writer appears to have missed the irony of his comment about "doubts about whether the country is fit for independence when they view the political system as a whole." - isn't that the very reason in a nutshell as to why we crave a return to our own independent political system! How patronising to lecture us on democratic choices and the deeper implications of voting for independence in case we are so stupid not to understand the consequences of a long hoped for regenerated political constitution under the initial propulsion of the SNP.
Posted by: britfree, camelon on 1:05pm Sun 6 Jul 08
everyone talks about the irony , the irony is after years of firing blanks , making big bangs to scare the nats at the labourite gates . the tame academics like mitchell , are discovering the real ammos gone damp and wont bang OR wound . its a wee bit like the boy who .......heard it all before . nice try , no ceeeeegar
Posted by: Observer, Glasgow on 1:08pm Sun 6 Jul 08
Choosing a constitutional preference involves more than choosing a governing party.


Ah is this Labour's cunning plan ? To be so unbelievably awful that it puts people off the idea of independence ? They are trying very hard at it, I must give them credit for that.
Posted by: Jimbo on 1:26pm Sun 6 Jul 08
Voters may be content to see Alex Salmond govern Scotland but have doubts about whether the country is fit for independence


I have it from some-one who used to work for the Herald that little snippets like this, purposely inserted in news reports, are designed to undermine people's confidence in their ability to govern themselves.

Perhaps this Professor of Politics could point us to some other western countries where the populace consider themselves unfit to run their own country.

Posted by: Clarinda, Perth on 1:53pm Sun 6 Jul 08
Hello Observer

The terminal chaos of the Labour party in Scotland, 'aided' by the antics of the LibDems, must be the first case of a misguided scorched earth policy to bite the perpetrators on the bottom if their "cunning plan" as you say is in effect?!
I really object to the pathetic and offensive "Catch 22" suggestion of there being no logical choice available for those of us intent on having Scotland return to independence and freedom.
A copy of the translation of the fundamental principles of the Declaration of Arbroath for the good professor and the Herald editors coffee room wall perhaps?
Posted by: Observer, Glasgow on 2:13pm Sun 6 Jul 08
Hello Clarinda

I was being a wee bit sarcastic with my ''cunning plan'' comment but one thing is clear to me - Labour do not see it in their interests to see Scotland governed well. It is also apparent that to both the political establishment, and the media, events in Scotland are baffling, and they do not know which way to turn. So treading water and squabbling between themselves seems to be the order of the day.

I don't see any catch 22 as long as the SNP ignore the comic side show that is Labour and the Lib Dems, and go full speed ahead for the independence referendum. Sooner or later those parties will realise that it is not in their interests to do Scotland down, as they need her more than she needs them. The same realisation will eventually dawn on the media and James Mitchell too.
Posted by: Vivas on 2:13pm Sun 6 Jul 08
Jimbo wrote:
Voters may be content to see Alex Salmond govern Scotland but have doubts about whether the country is fit for independence
I have it from some-one who used to work for the Herald that little snippets like this, purposely inserted in news reports, are designed to undermine people's confidence in their ability to govern themselves. Perhaps this Professor of Politics could point us to some other western countries where the populace consider themselves unfit to run their own country.
Its the raw-nerve that the fear-mongers keep pressing. This is not the place or time to examine the Scottish national psyche (again !)but most of us are aware from work or marital or other relationships... that people are most effectively undermined when their self-confidence is eroded by constantly questioning their abilities and their competence. It's the tactic of the bully - and says more about the bully than it does the victim. One day that tactic will stop working in a Scottish context, and that day may even be "today".
Posted by: Arrow on 2:21pm Sun 6 Jul 08
on the basis that David Cameron does get in at Westminster who will he appoint as Scottish "secretary"? if there are no Scottish candidates available or suitable. will he appoint an English MP or a Scot from an English constituency in such an event. just curious.
Posted by: Clarinda, Perth on 2:40pm Sun 6 Jul 08
Jimbo

What was it that used to happen to collaborators when caught attempting to betray and/or undermine their own country? But of course in times of peace we call this type of subliminal propaganda - freedom of the press! Those of us aware of this blunderbuss subterfuge are grateful for the confirmation from your source.
Posted by: benthiback, west lothian on 4:51pm Sun 6 Jul 08
nice to notice that after a quite prolonged period of wound licking and bewilderment, the labour tabloid rags are getting back to form with the familiar, near hysterical attacks on the snp. do they never learn ? ( hope not ! )
Posted by: allymax, upvinesass, scotland. on 9:08pm Sun 6 Jul 08
Vivas, yes, I referred to it as the 1000 years of Pavlovian conditioning. It's where some Scots are gracious and apathetic in the attitude. 'what's the point'.

The point is, we have a real chance to change Scotland for better. Galsgow East, vote SNP for a better, fairer indpendent Scotland. But strangely enough, I'd rather see Bean-Broon keep his job; him and bendy were a great boost for SNP. I'm hoping Ms Curran has all the charm and rhetoric of cruela deville, (elish angiolini). I don't think I'll be dis-appointed; but I'm sure cruela will!
Posted by: Los Angeles, Edinburgh on 10:34pm Sun 6 Jul 08
It’s catch-22 for the Nationalists
And it's keep-uppy for the Unionists.
Posted by: JohnMcDonald, London on 11:05pm Sun 6 Jul 08
"Its the raw-nerve that the fear-mongers keep pressing. This is not the place or time to examine the Scottish national psyche (again !)but most of us are aware from work or marital or other relationships... that people are most effectively undermined when their self-confidence is eroded by constantly questioning their abilities and their competence. It's the tactic of the bully - and says more about the bully than it does the victim. One day that tactic will stop working in a Scottish context, and that day may even be "today"."

Brilliant, hope you don't mind if I use it. Nicely put.
Posted by: dave on 11:24pm Sun 6 Jul 08
"choosing a constitutional preference involves more than choosing a governing party" The choice is whether people want to be ruled from London anymore.Arguments in favour of London rule are few and far between.
Posted by: Morag, Peeblesshire on 11:54pm Sun 6 Jul 08

I met James Mitchell when he was delivering the Wallace Day lecture to SNP London Branch some years ago. My impression, backed up by those who had met him on previous occasions, was that if you scratched him, he would bleed blue and white (or maybe even yellow and black). I've heard him making pretty positive noises on a good number of occasions.

I don't see the present article as quite so negative as some of the above comments appear to think. But I agree, I don't quite know how to take it.

Posted by: Los Angeles, Edinburgh on 1:43pm Mon 7 Jul 08
Morag
But I agree, I don't quite know how to take it.
Looks to me another opinion pointing out the obvious; the SNP has many hurdles to negotiate before voters are able to see clearly the way to full independence, a path not not compromised or detrimental to Scotland's economy - that is, to their purse.

It would be far better to understand to read of people's solutions to specific aspects that voters are uncertain about. Making observational remarks seems a bit shallow to me, like your car passenger speaking aloud all the names of stores and shops as you drive past them.



Posted by: Mac Coinnich, Edinburgh on 11:12pm Sat 12 Jul 08
If Scots still feel they have to be ruled by London & the perfidious British state & all it's trappings then they will always be subservient.I have always felt unionist's in Scotland are not willing to be accountable for how they spend money & just want handout's from their London masters. I have yet to meet one in person who has convinced me otherwise, the labour party in particular is full of career politician's who have no vision & profit out of other peoples misery., & that sadly is a fact. Social justice, don't make me laugh these clown's couldn't run a bath!
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