Down to the wire 'Less than 1000 votes' separate Labour and SNP in Glasgow East by-election
By James Cusick,
Westminster Editor
THE SCALE of the protest vote by former Labour supporters disillusioned with Gordon Brown will determine who wins the Glasgow East by-election. Canvass returns from both Labour and the SNP point to a knife-edge contest on Thursday, decided by less than 1000 votes.
With only four full days of cam-paigning left, the sheer scale of those yet to make up their minds has been identified by the front-runners as holding the key to victory.
Despite a weekend poll for the Daily Mail putting Labour on 52%, 17 points clear of the SNP, the sample has largely been dismissed as "rogue" by both Labour and SNP campaign teams.
In 2005 Labour won 61% of the vote on a 48% turnout. The Mail poll, conducted by Progressive Scottish Opinion, would mean Labour support holding firm in Glasgow, a result undermined last night by yet another UK poll that showed Labour trailing the Conservatives by 21 points - the biggest advantage ever shown in the ComRes polls for the Independent On Sunday. The poll put Labour on 24%, the Tories on 45%, with the Liberal Democrats on 16%.
Of those questioned, 68%, including 38% of Labour voters, said they believed Labour would lose the next election.
However, if Labour lose in Glasgow this week, the combination of failing to hold Labour's 25th-safest seat, alongside a poll pointing to a three-figure Tory majority, will raise serious questions about the prime minister's ability to remain in office amid rumours of a potential autumn challenge to his leadership.
Campaigning in the constituency for the eighth time, First Minister Alex Salmond said his party's own private polling showed those "undecided" would determine the result this week. "This thing is there for us. Our own support is strong and motivated, and we've already made up the ground that the Conservatives did to win in Crewe and Nantwich," he said.
The SNP's private polling still shows Labour's Margaret Curran marginally ahead on 26%, with the SNP candidate, John Mason, four points behind. Labour's internal polling has also told them that the result on Thursday will be "tight as hell". However, the numbers of the undecided will worry Downing Street and the Labour Party in Scotland more than it will worry Salmond.
Mason indicted a subtle shift in the SNP's strategy, saying he would be emphasising to the undecided in the constituency that voting SNP was a safe option. He said : "I'm under no illusion about how difficult it is for people who've normally voted Labour giving us their vote. But this is a by-election, not a general election. The government will not change if they vote for me. But it will send a message that the government in London is out of touch and cannot continue as they have been."
Labour also appear to have re-focused their efforts on the undecided. Curran, who should have been upbeat given the Mail opinion poll, said she was "taking nothing for granted" and would continue to campaign as though she was fighting a Labour marginal and "fighting for every vote".
Stopping just short of criticising Labour's record in Glasgow East, she nevertheless said that if she won she would take the message to London that more had to be done. However she denied she was a government rebel-in-waiting and said that serially voting against the government achieved little.
|
|
Posted by: Morag, Peeblesshire on 11:34pm Sat 19 Jul 08
Hmmmm, I thought both these newspaper polls had something wrong with them.
All the more reason for everyone who can to get to Glasgow as often as possible and help spread the SNP - Mason word.
Hmmmm, I thought both these newspaper polls had something wrong with them.
All the more reason for everyone who can to get to Glasgow as often as possible and help spread the SNP - Mason word.
Posted by: george alexander, north lanarkshire on 11:40pm Sat 19 Jul 08
This latest weekend poll puts Labour at 52%, the SNP at 35%, the Liberal Democrats at 3% and the Conservatives at 7%.
At the last Westminster election in 2005 those parties achieved 61%, 17%, 12%, and 7% respectively, on a turnout of 48%.
The poll also suggested that 29% of electors had yet to make up their minds on who to vote for.
Labour have timed the election such that voter turnout will drop from 31000 to say 30000
Extrapolating the poll suggests 21300 voters have declared.
29% don’t knows is 8700
Lib dems have lost 75% of their 2005 vote - 2500
Lab 52% of 21300 is 11000
SNP 35% of 21300 is 7500
Swing to the SNP thus far is over 15%
Of the remaining 8700 the SNP need 3500 more than Lab – SNP 5500 to Lab 3200.
None of these 8700 are hard core, they will be former Labour battling with their concience as well as Lib Dem wondering where to go, some first time voters as well.
I believe SNP will take the vast bulk of the Liberals, say 2000 with maybe 500 abstaining. This leaves the SNP needing 3900 votes from the remaining 6200.
These 6200 look like former Labour voters, can 3900 of them be persuaded to vote SNP? Well the fact that they have not decided to endorse Labour means that they are not happy with Labour and might do just that.
Of course it is entirely possible that many will opt against Labour but abstain rather than vote SNP, the thing is how many will abstain and how many will take the plunge and go for Mason?
If the poll is accurate then I predict a win for Labour by around 1000 - 1500 votes. If this poll overstates Labour’s support and underestimates the SNP by as little as 1000 then I take the SNP to win by around 2000 .... maybe even a bit more.
Feel free to pick holes in these numbers, there is nothing scientific in them.
[bold]PLEASE DO NOT RESPOND TO TROLLS !![/bold]
This latest weekend poll puts Labour at 52%, the SNP at 35%, the Liberal Democrats at 3% and the Conservatives at 7%.
At the last Westminster election in 2005 those parties achieved 61%, 17%, 12%, and 7% respectively, on a turnout of 48%.
The poll also suggested that 29% of electors had yet to make up their minds on who to vote for.
Labour have timed the election such that voter turnout will drop from 31000 to say 30000
Extrapolating the poll suggests 21300 voters have declared.
29% don’t knows is 8700
Lib dems have lost 75% of their 2005 vote - 2500
Lab 52% of 21300 is 11000
SNP 35% of 21300 is 7500
Swing to the SNP thus far is over 15%
Of the remaining 8700 the SNP need 3500 more than Lab – SNP 5500 to Lab 3200.
None of these 8700 are hard core, they will be former Labour battling with their concience as well as Lib Dem wondering where to go, some first time voters as well.
I believe SNP will take the vast bulk of the Liberals, say 2000 with maybe 500 abstaining. This leaves the SNP needing 3900 votes from the remaining 6200.
These 6200 look like former Labour voters, can 3900 of them be persuaded to vote SNP? Well the fact that they have not decided to endorse Labour means that they are not happy with Labour and might do just that.
Of course it is entirely possible that many will opt against Labour but abstain rather than vote SNP, the thing is how many will abstain and how many will take the plunge and go for Mason?
If the poll is accurate then I predict a win for Labour by around 1000 - 1500 votes. If this poll overstates Labour’s support and underestimates the SNP by as little as 1000 then I take the SNP to win by around 2000 .... maybe even a bit more.
Feel free to pick holes in these numbers, there is nothing scientific in them.
PLEASE DO NOT RESPOND TO TROLLS !! Posted by: Im no really here, but over there on 11:45pm Sat 19 Jul 08
My,my Labour have dismissed the Daily Mail claims, they were that biased.
Less than 30% turn-out. Very bad news for Labour. Smart move by Salmond - vote SNP, it won't change the Westminster Government, but it will make them change their underwear.
[bold]STOP BELIEVING THE SCOTTISH PRESS THAT IS TRUMPETING A MESSAGE THAT LABOUR WILL SCRAPE THROUGH - THE SNP ARE WINNING AND LABOUR ARE LOOSING. KEEP PUSHING FOLKS, THE SNP CAN WIN THIS - JUST STOP BELIEVING THE LYING, BIASED SCOTTISH PRESS - LABOUR ARE LOOSING THIS SEAT!!![/bold]
My,my Labour have dismissed the Daily Mail claims, they were that biased.
Less than 30% turn-out. Very bad news for Labour. Smart move by Salmond - vote SNP, it won't change the Westminster Government, but it will make them change their underwear.
STOP BELIEVING THE SCOTTISH PRESS THAT IS TRUMPETING A MESSAGE THAT LABOUR WILL SCRAPE THROUGH - THE SNP ARE WINNING AND LABOUR ARE LOOSING. KEEP PUSHING FOLKS, THE SNP CAN WIN THIS - JUST STOP BELIEVING THE LYING, BIASED SCOTTISH PRESS - LABOUR ARE LOOSING THIS SEAT!!! Posted by: Scotsgait, www.scotsgait.co.uk on 11:46pm Sat 19 Jul 08
Labour are running scared in Glasgow East. Whilst the SNP may well lose, the margin of that loss should be a final wake-up call to Scottish Labour.
_________
Scotsgait - Scotland's independent portal and discussion forum. Now with a new look.
Labour are running scared in Glasgow East. Whilst the SNP may well lose, the margin of that loss should be a final wake-up call to Scottish Labour.
_________
Scotsgait - Scotland's independent portal and discussion forum. Now with a new look.
Posted by: doonhamer on 11:46pm Sat 19 Jul 08
If Labour and the SNP share the undecided vote equally, Labour wins.
However, if the votes splits 60-40 SNP, the SNP wins in a squeaker.
If the margin is higher than 60-40 SNP, then the earthquake will occur.
If Labour and the SNP share the undecided vote equally, Labour wins.
However, if the votes splits 60-40 SNP, the SNP wins in a squeaker.
If the margin is higher than 60-40 SNP, then the earthquake will occur.
Posted by: Im no really here, but over there on 11:52pm Sat 19 Jul 08
[quote]george alexander, north lanarkshire on 11:40pm,[/quote]
you are using the poll figures from the Daily Mail, which have been exaggerated to favour Labour. So what you paint with your post is a worst-case scenario.
redo your figures with Labour 26% and SNP 22% and the rest undecided.
george alexander, north lanarkshire on 11:40pm,
you are using the poll figures from the Daily Mail, which have been exaggerated to favour Labour. So what you paint with your post is a worst-case scenario.
redo your figures with Labour 26% and SNP 22% and the rest undecided.
Posted by: george alexander, north lanarkshire on 11:52pm Sat 19 Jul 08
[quote][bold]doonhamer[/bold] wrote:
If Labour and the SNP share the undecided vote equally, Labour wins. However, if the votes splits 60-40 SNP, the SNP wins in a squeaker. If the margin is higher than 60-40 SNP, then the earthquake will occur.[/quote] yes Doonhamer, my amateurish numbers agree roughly with a 60-40 split of the undecided vote for an SNP win.
Sephologists will know how these voters typically split, i.e. same swing as those already declared or are they even more radical?
doonhamer wrote:
If Labour and the SNP share the undecided vote equally, Labour wins. However, if the votes splits 60-40 SNP, the SNP wins in a squeaker. If the margin is higher than 60-40 SNP, then the earthquake will occur.
yes Doonhamer, my amateurish numbers agree roughly with a 60-40 split of the undecided vote for an SNP win.
Sephologists will know how these voters typically split, i.e. same swing as those already declared or are they even more radical?
Posted by: Wardog, Buckie on 11:54pm Sat 19 Jul 08
CRY HAVOC! AND LET SLIP THE DOGS OF WAR
CRY HAVOC! AND LET SLIP THE DOGS OF WAR
Posted by: Alex Porter, TROLL CLEANING DEPT on 11:56pm Sat 19 Jul 08
George,
The last opinion poll that showed that 49% of all Scots wanted the SNP to win. There was a breakdown of party allegiance.
44% of Libs wanted the SNP to win and 41% Labour. However it was the Tories who wanted Labour to get a good kicking. I can't remember exactly the figures now but it was around 70% to 20%.
We need Tory defectors - LibDems are more neutral.
Incidently, a rumour has it that the postal votes have been opened up and it is supposedly too close to call...
George,
The last opinion poll that showed that 49% of all Scots wanted the SNP to win. There was a breakdown of party allegiance.
44% of Libs wanted the SNP to win and 41% Labour. However it was the Tories who wanted Labour to get a good kicking. I can't remember exactly the figures now but it was around 70% to 20%.
We need Tory defectors - LibDems are more neutral.
Incidently, a rumour has it that the postal votes have been opened up and it is supposedly too close to call...
Posted by: Scotsgait, www.scotsgait.co.uk on 11:57pm Sat 19 Jul 08
[quote]Sephologists will know how these voters typically split
[/quote]
Psephologists will also know how to spell the word.....
Sephologists will know how these voters typically split
Psephologists will also know how to spell the word.....
Posted by: george@budgetsoft.co
.uk, north lanarkshire on 12:05am Sun 20 Jul 08
[quote][bold]Im no really here[/bold] wrote:
[quote]george alexander, north lanarkshire on 11:40pm,[/quote] you are using the poll figures from the Daily Mail, which have been exaggerated to favour Labour. So what you paint with your post is a worst-case scenario. redo your figures with Labour 26% and SNP 22% and the rest undecided.[/quote] Too difficult sir, I'm no statistician.
However I deliberately set out to look at worst case scenario and it still suggested the SNP could win, but would probably fall short.
My feeling now, with a 4% lead replacing 17% is that an SNP win is the more likely.
There has been a deep concern shown by Unionists that is at odds with a 17% lead. The media articles and coverage have taken on the same feel as they did for the last Holyrood election.
I've been saying for the last week that the SNP odds offer incredible value.
The undecided voters hold the key, the change of tack by Mason in pointing out that this is not a general election is very shrewd.
Im no really here wrote:
george alexander, north lanarkshire on 11:40pm,
you are using the poll figures from the Daily Mail, which have been exaggerated to favour Labour. So what you paint with your post is a worst-case scenario. redo your figures with Labour 26% and SNP 22% and the rest undecided.
Too difficult sir, I'm no statistician.
However I deliberately set out to look at worst case scenario and it still suggested the SNP could win, but would probably fall short.
My feeling now, with a 4% lead replacing 17% is that an SNP win is the more likely.
There has been a deep concern shown by Unionists that is at odds with a 17% lead. The media articles and coverage have taken on the same feel as they did for the last Holyrood election.
I've been saying for the last week that the SNP odds offer incredible value.
The undecided voters hold the key, the change of tack by Mason in pointing out that this is not a general election is very shrewd.
Posted by: george alexander, north lanarkshire on 12:07am Sun 20 Jul 08
[quote][bold]Scotsgait[/bold] wrote:
[quote]Sephologists will know how these voters typically split [/quote] Psephologists will also know how to spell the word.....[/quote] unlike me .........
Scotsgait wrote:
Sephologists will know how these voters typically split
Psephologists will also know how to spell the word.....
unlike me .........
Posted by: Duns Scotus, Berwick on 12:10am Sun 20 Jul 08
[quote][bold]george alexander[/bold] wrote:
[quote][bold]Scotsgait[/bold] wrote: [quote]Sephologists will know how these voters typically split [/quote] Psephologists will also know how to spell the word.....[/quote] unlike me .........[/quote] The "P" is silent as in swimming pool.
george alexander wrote:
Scotsgait wrote: Sephologists will know how these voters typically split
Psephologists will also know how to spell the word.....
unlike me .........
The "P" is silent as in swimming pool.
Posted by: Alex Porter, Madrid on 12:16am Sun 20 Jul 08
Remember that Labour protests are worth 2 votes each whereas tactical LibDem/Tories are only worth 1.
My strategy would be to leaflet the seat showing the photo of Brown together with Thatcher. That should bring in some more 'swing' votes.
I also know that Labour's campaign is badly organised. The SNP will get its vote out on the day - that's for sure!
Remember that Labour protests are worth 2 votes each whereas tactical LibDem/Tories are only worth 1.
My strategy would be to leaflet the seat showing the photo of Brown together with Thatcher. That should bring in some more 'swing' votes.
I also know that Labour's campaign is badly organised. The SNP will get its vote out on the day - that's for sure!
Posted by: Vivas, Embra on 12:19am Sun 20 Jul 08
[quote][bold]doonhamer[/bold] wrote:
If Labour and the SNP share the undecided vote equally, Labour wins.
However, if the votes splits 60-40 SNP, the SNP wins in a squeaker.
If the margin is higher than 60-40 SNP, then the earthquake will occur.[/quote] Doonhamer, in my opinion theres 1000 votes for Labour to lose on yesterdays news alone. Smart, focused, targeted campaiging this week, and the rotten SLAB/Thatcherite walls might yet crumble by Thursday.
[bold]
'Work for incapacity benefit' scheme is leaked[/bold]
TORCUIL CRICHTON, Chief UK political correspondent July 19 2008
Radical plans to make the long-term unemployed "work for dole" and force those on disability benefits back to the jobs market have been unveiled on the eve of the crucial Glasgow East by-election.
The proposals, leaked to the media ahead of their launch by the government on Monday, will have a direct effect on at least 11,000 Incapacity Benefit claimants in the Glasgow East seat which also has one of the highest unemployment levels of any Scottish constituency
...
doonhamer wrote:
If Labour and the SNP share the undecided vote equally, Labour wins.
However, if the votes splits 60-40 SNP, the SNP wins in a squeaker.
If the margin is higher than 60-40 SNP, then the earthquake will occur.
Doonhamer, in my opinion theres 1000 votes for Labour to lose on yesterdays news alone. Smart, focused, targeted campaiging this week, and the rotten SLAB/Thatcherite walls might yet crumble by Thursday.
'Work for incapacity benefit' scheme is leaked
TORCUIL CRICHTON, Chief UK political correspondent July 19 2008
Radical plans to make the long-term unemployed "work for dole" and force those on disability benefits back to the jobs market have been unveiled on the eve of the crucial Glasgow East by-election.
The proposals, leaked to the media ahead of their launch by the government on Monday, will have a direct effect on at least 11,000 Incapacity Benefit claimants in the Glasgow East seat which also has one of the highest unemployment levels of any Scottish constituency
...
Posted by: wenceslas on 12:22am Sun 20 Jul 08
Whats the impact of the Liberals having a strong candidate? Of all the candidates, he seems to have performed the best. Will the Liberal vote crumble?
Whats the impact of the Liberals having a strong candidate? Of all the candidates, he seems to have performed the best. Will the Liberal vote crumble?
Posted by: Hamish, Bannockburn on 12:22am Sun 20 Jul 08
[quote][bold]Alex Porter[/bold] wrote:
George, The last opinion poll that showed that 49% of all Scots wanted the SNP to win. There was a breakdown of party allegiance. 44% of Libs wanted the SNP to win and 41% Labour. However it was the Tories who wanted Labour to get a good kicking. I can't remember exactly the figures now but it was around 70% to 20%. We need Tory defectors - LibDems are more neutral. Incidently, a rumour has it that the postal votes have been opened up and it is supposedly too close to call...[/quote] Wrong again numbskull. Postal votes are counted after the polling stations close. You really don't know anything do you, dimwit.....
Alex Porter wrote:
George, The last opinion poll that showed that 49% of all Scots wanted the SNP to win. There was a breakdown of party allegiance. 44% of Libs wanted the SNP to win and 41% Labour. However it was the Tories who wanted Labour to get a good kicking. I can't remember exactly the figures now but it was around 70% to 20%. We need Tory defectors - LibDems are more neutral. Incidently, a rumour has it that the postal votes have been opened up and it is supposedly too close to call...
Wrong again numbskull. Postal votes are counted after the polling stations close. You really don't know anything do you, dimwit.....
Posted by: Vincent McDee, Aberdeen on 12:23am Sun 20 Jul 08
I got £100 at 7/4 for Mason to win, those £160 are going to replenish the SNP coffers and make the victory twice as sweet.
Just in case I got a full tank and 3 days leave to do something about it. I think the name is a "very interested interest" in the result.
Go Nats.
I got £100 at 7/4 for Mason to win, those £160 are going to replenish the SNP coffers and make the victory twice as sweet.
Just in case I got a full tank and 3 days leave to do something about it. I think the name is a "very interested interest" in the result.
Go Nats.
Posted by: Iainbroch, Moray on 12:25am Sun 20 Jul 08
If it is as close as claimed then the Unionist mob is going to get more vicious,vindictive and poisonous.
The Labour Press and Media machine will get more hysterical and the attacks on SNP will accelerate.
I guess this election could be in the hands not so much the undecideds but of those normal apathetics in receipt of incapacity benefits.
Perhaps they will demonstrate that they are neither apathetic or totally incapable and give Labour a good and thoroughly deserved kicking.
If it is as close as claimed then the Unionist mob is going to get more vicious,vindictive and poisonous.
The Labour Press and Media machine will get more hysterical and the attacks on SNP will accelerate.
I guess this election could be in the hands not so much the undecideds but of those normal apathetics in receipt of incapacity benefits.
Perhaps they will demonstrate that they are neither apathetic or totally incapable and give Labour a good and thoroughly deserved kicking.
Posted by: Duns Scotus, Berwick on 12:34am Sun 20 Jul 08
From today’s Sunday Times – [bold]read this and smile:[/bold]
THE Scottish National party is on the brink of claiming a historic victory in the Glasgow East by-election as Labour’s campaign this weekend descended into chaos.
Private polling by the nationalists reveals it is on 22% of the vote, four points behind Labour. But, with just four days until polling, 35% of voters are still undecided.
Labour’s efforts to canvass support have been hampered by crippling computer problems. Software imported from England was unable to recognise twin-number Scottish tenement addresses, leaving campaign organisers to record voting intentions manually.
The computer program recorded tenements on the wrong streets or missed them out altogether. Other problems included the occupants of whole blocks recorded as living in one flat.
In addition, hundreds of man hours have been wasted on pointless journeys as volunteers were sent canvassing with out-of-date maps.
Meanwhile, Margaret Curran, the gaffe-prone Labour candidate, is facing fresh accusations of arrogance and complacency after she admitted that she had not even read a personal letter, signed by herself and sent to every voter in the constituency.
More at http://www.times
online.co.uk/tol/new
s
/uk/scotland/article
4364504.ece
From today’s Sunday Times –
read this and smile:
THE Scottish National party is on the brink of claiming a historic victory in the Glasgow East by-election as Labour’s campaign this weekend descended into chaos.
Private polling by the nationalists reveals it is on 22% of the vote, four points behind Labour. But, with just four days until polling, 35% of voters are still undecided.
Labour’s efforts to canvass support have been hampered by crippling computer problems. Software imported from England was unable to recognise twin-number Scottish tenement addresses, leaving campaign organisers to record voting intentions manually.
The computer program recorded tenements on the wrong streets or missed them out altogether. Other problems included the occupants of whole blocks recorded as living in one flat.
In addition, hundreds of man hours have been wasted on pointless journeys as volunteers were sent canvassing with out-of-date maps.
Meanwhile, Margaret Curran, the gaffe-prone Labour candidate, is facing fresh accusations of arrogance and complacency after she admitted that she had not even read a personal letter, signed by herself and sent to every voter in the constituency.
More at http://www.times
online.co.uk/tol/new
s
/uk/scotland/article
4364504.ece
Posted by: Vivas, Embra on 12:34am Sun 20 Jul 08
[quote][bold]Iainbroch[/bold] wrote:
If it is as close as claimed then the Unionist mob is going to get more vicious,vindictive and poisonous.
The Labour Press and Media machine will get more hysterical and the attacks on SNP will accelerate.
I guess this election could be in the hands not so much the undecideds but of those normal apathetics in receipt of incapacity benefits.
Perhaps they will demonstrate that they are neither apathetic or totally incapable and give Labour a good and thoroughly deserved kicking.[/quote] True Ian, true. "The Northbritishman" looking stupid and ranting tonight with it's imbecile article attaching local income tax to Scottish soldiers...
The Sunday Herald best of the bunch as usual.
[bold]
That said, what the hell has the Sunday Herald done with Ian McWhirter and Paul Hutcheon ?[/bold]
Iainbroch wrote:
If it is as close as claimed then the Unionist mob is going to get more vicious,vindictive and poisonous.
The Labour Press and Media machine will get more hysterical and the attacks on SNP will accelerate.
I guess this election could be in the hands not so much the undecideds but of those normal apathetics in receipt of incapacity benefits.
Perhaps they will demonstrate that they are neither apathetic or totally incapable and give Labour a good and thoroughly deserved kicking.
True Ian, true. "The Northbritishman" looking stupid and ranting tonight with it's imbecile article attaching local income tax to Scottish soldiers...
The Sunday Herald best of the bunch as usual.
That said, what the hell has the Sunday Herald done with Ian McWhirter and Paul Hutcheon ?
Posted by: Vivas, Embra on 12:37am Sun 20 Jul 08
[quote][bold]Duns Scotus[/bold] wrote:
From today’s Sunday Times – [bold]read this and smile:[/bold]
THE Scottish National party is on the brink of claiming a historic victory in the Glasgow East by-election as Labour’s campaign this weekend descended into chaos.
Private polling by the nationalists reveals it is on 22% of the vote, four points behind Labour. But, with just four days until polling, 35% of voters are still undecided.
Labour’s efforts to canvass support have been hampered by crippling computer problems. Software imported from England was unable to recognise twin-number Scottish tenement addresses, leaving campaign organisers to record voting intentions manually.
The computer program recorded tenements on the wrong streets or missed them out altogether. Other problems included the occupants of whole blocks recorded as living in one flat.
In addition, hundreds of man hours have been wasted on pointless journeys as volunteers were sent canvassing with out-of-date maps.
Meanwhile, Margaret Curran, the gaffe-prone Labour candidate, is facing fresh accusations of arrogance and complacency after she admitted that she had not even read a personal letter, signed by herself and sent to every voter in the constituency.
More at http://www.times
online.co.uk/tol/new
s
/uk/scotland/article
4364504.ece
[/quote] SWEET ! If only there was another TV debate (is there ?). Glenn Campbell could right a wrong by putting her on the spot on this one...
:-))))))))))))))))))
))))
Duns Scotus wrote:
From today’s Sunday Times – read this and smile:
THE Scottish National party is on the brink of claiming a historic victory in the Glasgow East by-election as Labour’s campaign this weekend descended into chaos.
Private polling by the nationalists reveals it is on 22% of the vote, four points behind Labour. But, with just four days until polling, 35% of voters are still undecided.
Labour’s efforts to canvass support have been hampered by crippling computer problems. Software imported from England was unable to recognise twin-number Scottish tenement addresses, leaving campaign organisers to record voting intentions manually.
The computer program recorded tenements on the wrong streets or missed them out altogether. Other problems included the occupants of whole blocks recorded as living in one flat.
In addition, hundreds of man hours have been wasted on pointless journeys as volunteers were sent canvassing with out-of-date maps.
Meanwhile, Margaret Curran, the gaffe-prone Labour candidate, is facing fresh accusations of arrogance and complacency after she admitted that she had not even read a personal letter, signed by herself and sent to every voter in the constituency.
More at http://www.times
online.co.uk/tol/new
s
/uk/scotland/article
4364504.ece
SWEET ! If only there was another TV debate (is there ?). Glenn Campbell could right a wrong by putting her on the spot on this one...
:-))))))))))))))))))
))))
Posted by: Oscar on 12:39am Sun 20 Jul 08
Duns, that Times article is the best thing to have come out of this by-election. I'm just regetting not hiring a monkey suit and turning up at Labour HQ as a volunteer.
http://tinyurl.com/6
2swzs
Duns, that Times article is the best thing to have come out of this by-election. I'm just regetting not hiring a monkey suit and turning up at Labour HQ as a volunteer.
http://tinyurl.com/6
2swzs
Posted by: Alex Porter, TROLL FREE ZONE on 12:42am Sun 20 Jul 08
Independence Referendum on St. Andrews Day 2010!
Guys, the clock is ticking. The unionists should know that we're coming to get them:
http://www.timesonli
ne.co.uk/tol/news/uk
/scotland/article436
4455.ece
Independence Referendum on St. Andrews Day 2010!
Guys, the clock is ticking. The unionists should know that we're coming to get them:
http://www.timesonli
ne.co.uk/tol/news/uk
/scotland/article436
4455.ece
Posted by: Vivas, Embra on 12:43am Sun 20 Jul 08
Interestingly low-key editorial from The Northbritishman, quite downplaying the byelection IMO.
http://tinyurl.com/6
enjc8
Tells me that the unionists are absolutely filling their pants ;-)
Interestingly low-key editorial from The Northbritishman, quite downplaying the byelection IMO.
http://tinyurl.com/6
enjc8
Tells me that the unionists are absolutely filling their pants ;-)
Posted by: Steve A, Independence is on its way on 12:54am Sun 20 Jul 08
[quote][bold]wenceslas[/bold] wrote:
Whats the impact of the Liberals having a strong candidate? Of all the candidates, he seems to have performed the best. Will the Liberal vote crumble? [/quote] Are you that wee boy with the weird eyes mammy ?
wenceslas wrote:
Whats the impact of the Liberals having a strong candidate? Of all the candidates, he seems to have performed the best. Will the Liberal vote crumble?
Are you that wee boy with the weird eyes mammy ?
Posted by: Ex-Soldier, Edinburgh on 1:08am Sun 20 Jul 08
An article entitled '[bold]They would have employed a monkey[/bold] ' over in the Sunday Times about an undercover journalist working on the Labour campaign. Total disarray
[bold]http://www.timesonli
ne.co.uk/tol/news/po
litics/article436291
7.ece[/bold]
An article entitled '
They would have employed a monkey ' over in the Sunday Times about an undercover journalist working on the Labour campaign. Total disarray
http://www.timesonli
ne.co.uk/tol/news/po
litics/article436291
7.ece Posted by: Am Balach, Skye on 1:10am Sun 20 Jul 08
Well
You guys who think you know what is going to happen on Thursday.
All I can say is that I spent the day canvassing in Parkheid.
Well
You guys who think you know what is going to happen on Thursday.
All I can say is that I spent the day canvassing in Parkheid.
Posted by: Alex Porter, TROLLS OUT on 1:12am Sun 20 Jul 08
Am Balach,
..and
Posted by: M Fiseema, Larbert on 1:19am Sun 20 Jul 08
[bold]Vivas, Embra on 12:37am today[/bold]
STV is broadcasting a one-hour "Politics Now" on Tuesday evening, featuring the four main parties.
Vivas, Embra on 12:37am today
STV is broadcasting a one-hour "Politics Now" on Tuesday evening, featuring the four main parties.
Posted by: doonhamer on 1:24am Sun 20 Jul 08
[quote][bold]Am Balach[/bold] wrote:
Well You guys who think you know what is going to happen on Thursday. All I can say is that I spent the day canvassing in Parkheid.[/quote] I think his heart gave out..
Am Balach wrote:
Well You guys who think you know what is going to happen on Thursday. All I can say is that I spent the day canvassing in Parkheid.
I think his heart gave out..
Posted by: JWil on 1:24am Sun 20 Jul 08
Glenn Campbell will choke on his tongue if he has to take up some of these things with Margaret Curran. Her answer would be, don't worry I am going to fix everything.
It will be interesting to see what slant the BBC puts on it on the Politics Programme later today.
Glenn Campbell will choke on his tongue if he has to take up some of these things with Margaret Curran. Her answer would be, don't worry I am going to fix everything.
It will be interesting to see what slant the BBC puts on it on the Politics Programme later today.
Posted by: Vivas on 1:25am Sun 20 Jul 08
[quote][bold]M Fiseema[/bold] wrote:
[bold]Vivas, Embra on 12:37am today[/bold]
STV is broadcasting a one-hour "Politics Now" on Tuesday evening, featuring the four main parties. [/quote] Thanks for that info M Fiseema ... so Curran and Labour have 48 hours to launch the biggest lies they can possibly come up with. Expect it.
For the SNP/Mason ... keep jabbing at the Thatcherite Labour party and their invalidity benefit plans that will affect 11,000 East-enders one way or another.
I expect Curran to be in full bitter bile mode on the night. That will tell us just how close the SNP are !!!
M Fiseema wrote:
Vivas, Embra on 12:37am today
STV is broadcasting a one-hour "Politics Now" on Tuesday evening, featuring the four main parties.
Thanks for that info M Fiseema ... so Curran and Labour have 48 hours to launch the biggest lies they can possibly come up with. Expect it.
For the SNP/Mason ... keep jabbing at the Thatcherite Labour party and their invalidity benefit plans that will affect 11,000 East-enders one way or another.
I expect Curran to be in full bitter bile mode on the night. That will tell us just how close the SNP are !!!
Posted by: Ayrshireman, Ayrshire on 1:34am Sun 20 Jul 08
I hope Mason gets his act together for STV. and that there is no hidden agenda! However watch oot for the ex-weatherman.
I hope Mason gets his act together for STV. and that there is no hidden agenda! However watch oot for the ex-weatherman.
Posted by: Wardog, Buckie on 1:34am Sun 20 Jul 08
Ex-Soldier, Edinburgh on 1:08am today
Could you fill us in on details on MoD Council Tax Payment?
Ex-Soldier, Edinburgh on 1:08am today
Could you fill us in on details on MoD Council Tax Payment?
Posted by: Morag, Peeblesshire on 1:43am Sun 20 Jul 08
[quote][bold]Hamish[/bold] wrote:
[quote][bold]Alex Porter[/bold] wrote: George, The last opinion poll that showed that 49% of all Scots wanted the SNP to win. There was a breakdown of party allegiance. 44% of Libs wanted the SNP to win and 41% Labour. However it was the Tories who wanted Labour to get a good kicking. I can't remember exactly the figures now but it was around 70% to 20%. We need Tory defectors - LibDems are more neutral. Incidently, a rumour has it that the postal votes have been opened up and it is supposedly too close to call...[/quote] Wrong again numbskull. Postal votes are counted after the polling stations close. You really don't know anything do you, dimwit.....[/quote] No, Hamish, he's not wrong. They're counted earlier. Accredited observers are sworn to silence, but things do leak.
On Thursday I happened to notice details of the dates (there were two) for the Glasgow East postal vote counts displayed in the SNP campaign rooms, and cursed myself for forgetting when they were, as this is the classic opportunity for some really informed leaking.
I remember when I was campaigning in Dumfries in 1999, and we weren't doing so good. The organiser went off to observe at the postal count (a few days before the poll) and came back looking pretty depressed. He was generally non-committal, but at the same time giving off palpable "don't get your hopes up" vibes.
So, Hamish yet again demonstrates just how reliable his information is. Yes, he's been to Glasgow East - he says. But he said that Labour activists outnumbered SNP by 2 to 1, and even if we didn't know that was a lie from our own experience, the [italic]Sunday Times[/italic] article proves it. And he doesn't know when postal votes are counted.
He's just making it all up as he goes along.
Hamish wrote:
Alex Porter wrote: George, The last opinion poll that showed that 49% of all Scots wanted the SNP to win. There was a breakdown of party allegiance. 44% of Libs wanted the SNP to win and 41% Labour. However it was the Tories who wanted Labour to get a good kicking. I can't remember exactly the figures now but it was around 70% to 20%. We need Tory defectors - LibDems are more neutral. Incidently, a rumour has it that the postal votes have been opened up and it is supposedly too close to call...
Wrong again numbskull. Postal votes are counted after the polling stations close. You really don't know anything do you, dimwit.....
No, Hamish, he's not wrong. They're counted earlier. Accredited observers are sworn to silence, but things do leak.
On Thursday I happened to notice details of the dates (there were two) for the Glasgow East postal vote counts displayed in the SNP campaign rooms, and cursed myself for forgetting when they were, as this is the classic opportunity for some really informed leaking.
I remember when I was campaigning in Dumfries in 1999, and we weren't doing so good. The organiser went off to observe at the postal count (a few days before the poll) and came back looking pretty depressed. He was generally non-committal, but at the same time giving off palpable "don't get your hopes up" vibes.
So, Hamish yet again demonstrates just how reliable his information is. Yes, he's been to Glasgow East - he says. But he said that Labour activists outnumbered SNP by 2 to 1, and even if we didn't know that was a lie from our own experience, the
Sunday Times article proves it. And he doesn't know when postal votes are counted.
He's just making it all up as he goes along.
Posted by: Clarinda on 1:47am Sun 20 Jul 08
Anyone available to comment on an article by Brian Wilson in the Sunday Telegraph Comment Section today. For those of a nervous disposition - don't have nightmares.
Anyone available to comment on an article by Brian Wilson in the Sunday Telegraph Comment Section today. For those of a nervous disposition - don't have nightmares.
Posted by: Graeme Thomson, Glasgow on 1:50am Sun 20 Jul 08
The latest pic from Iraq on the Independent website is priceless and will haunt "gung-ho" Gordon Brown forever.
The article says a No.10 aide went ashen-white when he saw the image – and no wonder. Perhaps the SNP should use this image and the one with the PM warmly welcoming Maggie Thatcher to Downing Street in their campaign in Glasgow East to show just how "in-tough" with urban Scots this PM is.
The latest pic from Iraq on the Independent website is priceless and will haunt "gung-ho" Gordon Brown forever.
The article says a No.10 aide went ashen-white when he saw the image – and no wonder. Perhaps the SNP should use this image and the one with the PM warmly welcoming Maggie Thatcher to Downing Street in their campaign in Glasgow East to show just how "in-tough" with urban Scots this PM is.
Posted by: graeme Thomson, Glasgow on 1:52am Sun 20 Jul 08
Sorry, should have provided a link out of courtesy.
It's on their main page at:
http://www.independe
nt.co.uk/
Oh, and I meant touch not tough.
Sorry, should have provided a link out of courtesy.
It's on their main page at:
http://www.independe
nt.co.uk/
Oh, and I meant touch not tough.
Posted by: Morag, Peeblesshire on 1:54am Sun 20 Jul 08
How many Labour or undecided voters in Glasgow East actually read either the [italic]Sunday Telegraph[/italic] or the [italic]Independent[/italic], I wonder? Probably just as few as read the [italic]Sunday Times[/italic].
I wish they were reading the [italic]Sunday Times[/italic], though!
How many Labour or undecided voters in Glasgow East actually read either the
Sunday Telegraph or the
Independent, I wonder? Probably just as few as read the
Sunday Times.
I wish they were reading the
Sunday Times, though!
Posted by: The 'tic of it, Dundee on 1:54am Sun 20 Jul 08
Brown wants to win this by election,so as he'll still be labour leader come 2010.
The Tories want Brown to win,so as he'll still be labour leader come 2010.
The SNP want Brown to win, so as he'll still be labour leader come 2010.
The labour party want Brown to lose, so as he won't still be labour leader come 2010.
This by election is not about John Mason, Margaret Curran or the people of Glasgow East.
This by election is about the disaster that is
Gordon Brown.
Brown wants to win this by election,so as he'll still be labour leader come 2010.
The Tories want Brown to win,so as he'll still be labour leader come 2010.
The SNP want Brown to win, so as he'll still be labour leader come 2010.
The labour party want Brown to lose, so as he won't still be labour leader come 2010.
This by election is not about John Mason, Margaret Curran or the people of Glasgow East.
This by election is about the disaster that is
Gordon Brown.
Posted by: Am Balach, Skye on 1:56am Sun 20 Jul 08
Sorry
I was enjoying myself reading the Times.
The don't knows and won't vote are winning.
But the don't knows are not going to vote Labour.
A small sample but of those who are going to vote in Parkhead the SNP were ahead 3-1.
The feedback in general is amazing and labour are keeching themselves.
read the Sunday times Scotland section for a inside take on labour's campaign.
Bytheway, the Osama Saaed nonsense in SoS is a collaberation between Eddie Barnes and Mohammed Sarwar.
Sorry
I was enjoying myself reading the Times.
The don't knows and won't vote are winning.
But the don't knows are not going to vote Labour.
A small sample but of those who are going to vote in Parkhead the SNP were ahead 3-1.
The feedback in general is amazing and labour are keeching themselves.
read the Sunday times Scotland section for a inside take on labour's campaign.
Bytheway, the Osama Saaed nonsense in SoS is a collaberation between Eddie Barnes and Mohammed Sarwar.
Posted by: Vivas, Embra on 1:57am Sun 20 Jul 08
[quote][bold]Graeme Thomson[/bold] wrote:
The latest pic from Iraq on the Independent website is priceless and will haunt \"gung-ho\" Gordon Brown forever.
The article says a No.10 aide went ashen-white when he saw the image – and no wonder. Perhaps the SNP should use this image and the one with the PM warmly welcoming Maggie Thatcher to Downing Street in their campaign in Glasgow East to show just how \"in-tough\" with urban Scots this PM is. [/quote] Thanks for that Graeme..freekin unbelievable.
Last time I saw a prime minister who wanted to play soldiers, it was Thatcher careering across an army training ground in the cockpit of a Challenger tank.
The Brown/Thatcher relationship is more than skin deep, they're soul mates.
Graeme Thomson wrote:
The latest pic from Iraq on the Independent website is priceless and will haunt \"gung-ho\" Gordon Brown forever.
The article says a No.10 aide went ashen-white when he saw the image – and no wonder. Perhaps the SNP should use this image and the one with the PM warmly welcoming Maggie Thatcher to Downing Street in their campaign in Glasgow East to show just how \"in-tough\" with urban Scots this PM is.
Thanks for that Graeme..freekin unbelievable.
Last time I saw a prime minister who wanted to play soldiers, it was Thatcher careering across an army training ground in the cockpit of a Challenger tank.
The Brown/Thatcher relationship is more than skin deep, they're soul mates.
Posted by: Graeme Thomson, Glasgow on 1:58am Sun 20 Jul 08
Hi Morag,
Not many will read the papers in question in the East End but I'm sure the image I describe will permeate down and will prove to be an iconic one in time.
Hi Morag,
Not many will read the papers in question in the East End but I'm sure the image I describe will permeate down and will prove to be an iconic one in time.
Posted by: ratzo on 2:02am Sun 20 Jul 08
Graeme,
John Rentoul points out that the pic will certainly be the front page on Private Eye.
Clarinda,
The Brian Wilson thing is pretty routine from him - what's interesting though is that he's got not the slightest idea about what to do, and he more or less admits it.
Graeme,
John Rentoul points out that the pic will certainly be the front page on Private Eye.
Clarinda,
The Brian Wilson thing is pretty routine from him - what's interesting though is that he's got not the slightest idea about what to do, and he more or less admits it.
Posted by: Iainbroch, Moray on 2:11am Sun 20 Jul 08
[quote][bold]Clarinda[/bold] wrote:
Anyone available to comment on an article by Brian Wilson in the Sunday Telegraph Comment Section today. For those of a nervous disposition - don't have nightmares.[/quote] Having a nightmare just at the thought of Brian Wilson - aaaarrrrggggghhhhhh!
!!
Clarinda wrote:
Anyone available to comment on an article by Brian Wilson in the Sunday Telegraph Comment Section today. For those of a nervous disposition - don't have nightmares.
Having a nightmare just at the thought of Brian Wilson - aaaarrrrggggghhhhhh!
!!
Posted by: Big Boy Did It, And Ran Away on 2:14am Sun 20 Jul 08
Surely the Indy's picture is of Broon coming in to Glasgow East to offer his support.
Surely the Indy's picture is of Broon coming in to Glasgow East to offer his support.
Posted by: Big Boy Did It, And Ran Away on 2:16am Sun 20 Jul 08
Although maybe it is Iraq, if it were Glasgow East, I don't think he'd be grinning like a 10 year old.
Although maybe it is Iraq, if it were Glasgow East, I don't think he'd be grinning like a 10 year old.
Posted by: Alex Porter, TROLL FREE ZONE on 2:23am Sun 20 Jul 08
Yes Clarinda, I agree - it's par for the course with Brian Wilson. He has a kind of visceral hatred of the SNP. So much so that you might think he is a nationalist in denial;) He is very self-rightious on the subject and some might say he has a messiah complex. Indeed, an anagram of his name is 'losin wan rib'. He has used his newspaper in the highlands to attack the SNP over the years and infers that the nationalists are bigots or racist. In short he can't be rational on the subject.
Yes Clarinda, I agree - it's par for the course with Brian Wilson. He has a kind of visceral hatred of the SNP. So much so that you might think he is a nationalist in denial;) He is very self-rightious on the subject and some might say he has a messiah complex. Indeed, an anagram of his name is 'losin wan rib'. He has used his newspaper in the highlands to attack the SNP over the years and infers that the nationalists are bigots or racist. In short he can't be rational on the subject.
Posted by: graeme Thomson, Glasgow on 2:30am Sun 20 Jul 08
Hi Vivas,
One of the themes that strikes me from the image is that the only times I've now seen Gordon Brown so happy is when he visits a country he helped devastate and when he played host to a woman who helped devastate Scotland.
I'm also sure he was beaming when Paul Gascoigne scored against Scotland in Euro 96 – which he says was his "favourite football moment".
A goal which devastated me!!!
If only we had the picture.
Hi Vivas,
One of the themes that strikes me from the image is that the only times I've now seen Gordon Brown so happy is when he visits a country he helped devastate and when he played host to a woman who helped devastate Scotland.
I'm also sure he was beaming when Paul Gascoigne scored against Scotland in Euro 96 – which he says was his "favourite football moment".
A goal which devastated me!!!
If only we had the picture.
Posted by: ruglen on 2:43am Sun 20 Jul 08
EDITOR - on a more general note - give your readers (presumably and your infrequent readership whom you wish to retain) a better service by accepting my previous suggestions and 'number' contributions as they appear on screen.
When you take up my suggestion, contact my e-mail no. for my bank details.
Thanks in anticipatiion (in sterling).
EDITOR - on a more general note - give your readers (presumably and your infrequent readership whom you wish to retain) a better service by accepting my previous suggestions and 'number' contributions as they appear on screen.
When you take up my suggestion, contact my e-mail no. for my bank details.
Thanks in anticipatiion (in sterling).
Posted by: alan reid, NZ on 3:44am Sun 20 Jul 08
The great PFI swindle
Allowing private companies to build and run schools and hospitals for profit has been controversial from the start. Now, though, the true cost of the Private Finance Initiative and the scandalous profits being made by businesses is finally revealed. As investigated by Rob Edwards
Comment | Read Comments (51)
LOCAL AUTHORITIES, health trusts and other public agencies will end up paying up to twice as much as is necessary for the 700 developments planned or built under the UK government's Private Finance Initiative (PFI).
And private companies could pocket up to £50 billion in profits from investing in schools, hospitals and other public building projects through the scheme, an investigation by the Sunday Herald has revealed.
The revelations, based on tens of thousands of pages released under freedom of information laws, have confirmed critics' worst fears. They say PFI has turned out to be "a huge scam", "a total taxpayer rip-off" and "a cynical accounting fiddle".
advertisementInterna
l financial projections for six PFI schemes show investors are expecting to recoup 12 times more than they invested. In some cases shareholders are predicted to make truly astronomical gains.
Equity of just £100 invested in rebuilding Hairmyres Hospital in East Kilbride is projected to earn £89 million in dividends over 30 years, while half a million pounds of equity in the new Edinburgh Royal Infirmary is expected to win dividends of £168m.
PFI was introduced under the Conservative prime minister, John Major, in 1992 and later pursued by Gordon Brown after he became chancellor in 1997. It was designed as a way of injecting private capital into public projects in an attempt to get debts off the Treasury's books.
The idea was that capital would be raised on the private market to fund developments that would then be built and run by private firms. Although the projects would cost public authorities little up-front, they would then have to pay for them in instalments over the next 25 or 30 years.
Despite the fact PFI has delivered hundreds of new hospitals, schools, sewage works and roads across the country, it has provoked a prolonged storm of controversy. But until now, there has been little hard information on which to judge the schemes because they have been shrouded in commercial secrecy.
A series of recent requests under freedom of information legislation has, however, begun to lift the lid. For the first time the detailed analyses done for the backers of six PFI schemes, five in Scotland and one in England, have been released.
The resulting piles of paperwork have been studied over the last year by economists Jim and Margaret Cuthbert. Jim is a former chief statistician with the Scottish Office, while Margaret was an academic at three Scottish universities. Now the husband-and-wife team run their own consultancy in Edinburgh.
Using investors' own projections, the Cuthberts have calculated how much profit was predicted from the six schemes. As well as the new Edinburgh and Hairmyres hospitals, they included the James Watt College campus in Kilwinning, 11 Highland schools, new Perth and Kinross Council offices and County Hospital in Hereford.
After stripping out the payments made for servicing the buildings and the normal commercial lending by major banks, the couple uncovered what they describe as "eye-catching" returns. They have submitted their findings to the investigation into the funding of capital projects being carried out by the Scottish parliament's finance committee.
Overall, the Cuthberts found that £42m of "subordinate debt" invested by the companies building the six schemes was predicted to yield £517m. Included in that, the profits on the £717,297 put in as equity by shareholders were projected to reach £350m.
They calculated that the internal rate of return being earned by investors varied from 17% to 23% on debts that were often more than double the capital invested. Even when the profits were converted to reflect the effects of possible future inflation, they look very healthy.
What's more, the Cuthberts' calculations suggest the projects are very poor value for money. The Edinburgh Infirmary, Hairmyres and James Watt College could all have been built for half the cost if the money had been borrowed in the normal way from the government's national loan fund, they say, and huge savings could have also been made on the Highland schools, the Perth offices and the Hereford hospital.
"What this suggests about the costs of PFI is extremely worrying," said Jim Cuthbert. "No country, whether it be Scotland or the UK as a whole, could long support funding its major public infrastructure on a one-for-the-price-of
-two' basis.
"There has clearly been a systemic failure in the existing mechanisms designed to secure value for money from PFI schemes."
Detailed financial information on the vast majority of the 700-plus PFI schemes agreed across the UK is still confidential. But if their projected profits were only a proportion of those from the six schemes on which data is available, they could reach a massive £50bn.
On similar assumptions, the profit from more than 60 completed PFI projects in Scotland alone could rise to more than £5bn.
The great PFI swindle
Allowing private companies to build and run schools and hospitals for profit has been controversial from the start. Now, though, the true cost of the Private Finance Initiative and the scandalous profits being made by businesses is finally revealed. As investigated by Rob Edwards
Comment | Read Comments (51)
LOCAL AUTHORITIES, health trusts and other public agencies will end up paying up to twice as much as is necessary for the 700 developments planned or built under the UK government's Private Finance Initiative (PFI).
And private companies could pocket up to £50 billion in profits from investing in schools, hospitals and other public building projects through the scheme, an investigation by the Sunday Herald has revealed.
The revelations, based on tens of thousands of pages released under freedom of information laws, have confirmed critics' worst fears. They say PFI has turned out to be "a huge scam", "a total taxpayer rip-off" and "a cynical accounting fiddle".
advertisementInterna
l financial projections for six PFI schemes show investors are expecting to recoup 12 times more than they invested. In some cases shareholders are predicted to make truly astronomical gains.
Equity of just £100 invested in rebuilding Hairmyres Hospital in East Kilbride is projected to earn £89 million in dividends over 30 years, while half a million pounds of equity in the new Edinburgh Royal Infirmary is expected to win dividends of £168m.
PFI was introduced under the Conservative prime minister, John Major, in 1992 and later pursued by Gordon Brown after he became chancellor in 1997. It was designed as a way of injecting private capital into public projects in an attempt to get debts off the Treasury's books.
The idea was that capital would be raised on the private market to fund developments that would then be built and run by private firms. Although the projects would cost public authorities little up-front, they would then have to pay for them in instalments over the next 25 or 30 years.
Despite the fact PFI has delivered hundreds of new hospitals, schools, sewage works and roads across the country, it has provoked a prolonged storm of controversy. But until now, there has been little hard information on which to judge the schemes because they have been shrouded in commercial secrecy.
A series of recent requests under freedom of information legislation has, however, begun to lift the lid. For the first time the detailed analyses done for the backers of six PFI schemes, five in Scotland and one in England, have been released.
The resulting piles of paperwork have been studied over the last year by economists Jim and Margaret Cuthbert. Jim is a former chief statistician with the Scottish Office, while Margaret was an academic at three Scottish universities. Now the husband-and-wife team run their own consultancy in Edinburgh.
Using investors' own projections, the Cuthberts have calculated how much profit was predicted from the six schemes. As well as the new Edinburgh and Hairmyres hospitals, they included the James Watt College campus in Kilwinning, 11 Highland schools, new Perth and Kinross Council offices and County Hospital in Hereford.
After stripping out the payments made for servicing the buildings and the normal commercial lending by major banks, the couple uncovered what they describe as "eye-catching" returns. They have submitted their findings to the investigation into the funding of capital projects being carried out by the Scottish parliament's finance committee.
Overall, the Cuthberts found that £42m of "subordinate debt" invested by the companies building the six schemes was predicted to yield £517m. Included in that, the profits on the £717,297 put in as equity by shareholders were projected to reach £350m.
They calculated that the internal rate of return being earned by investors varied from 17% to 23% on debts that were often more than double the capital invested. Even when the profits were converted to reflect the effects of possible future inflation, they look very healthy.
What's more, the Cuthberts' calculations suggest the projects are very poor value for money. The Edinburgh Infirmary, Hairmyres and James Watt College could all have been built for half the cost if the money had been borrowed in the normal way from the government's national loan fund, they say, and huge savings could have also been made on the Highland schools, the Perth offices and the Hereford hospital.
"What this suggests about the costs of PFI is extremely worrying," said Jim Cuthbert. "No country, whether it be Scotland or the UK as a whole, could long support funding its major public infrastructure on a one-for-the-price-of
-two' basis.
"There has clearly been a systemic failure in the existing mechanisms designed to secure value for money from PFI schemes."
Detailed financial information on the vast majority of the 700-plus PFI schemes agreed across the UK is still confidential. But if their projected profits were only a proportion of those from the six schemes on which data is available, they could reach a massive £50bn.
On similar assumptions, the profit from more than 60 completed PFI projects in Scotland alone could rise to more than £5bn.
Posted by: Lobeydosser, Woodlands Road on 5:34am Sun 20 Jul 08
How many labour campaigners does it take to change a light bulb?
None!
They cant find the tenement to where the light bulb needs to be changed.
How many labour campaigners does it take to change a light bulb?
None!
They cant find the tenement to where the light bulb needs to be changed.
Posted by: Bob the bridie, Scotland on 6:24am Sun 20 Jul 08
Slab are struggling.lol
http://tinyurl.com/6
2swzs
Slab are struggling.lol
http://tinyurl.com/6
2swzs
Posted by: Guga, Rockall on 6:48am Sun 20 Jul 08
I know that a lot of voters in Glasgow would vote for a monkey with a red rosette, but surely even the voters in Glasgow East will not vote for a harridan like Curran.
Surely they can see through the way she has tried to ingratiate herself by implying that she is "one of them". Her claim that she has lived in the East End of Glasgow all her life is yet another blatant lie from this woman. She lives in a £600,000 house in Newlands in the south of Glasgow.
I wonder too, in the unlikely event that she wins, will she be claiming £500,000 for the use of her front room in her house as an office, like David Marshall?
I know that a lot of voters in Glasgow would vote for a monkey with a red rosette, but surely even the voters in Glasgow East will not vote for a harridan like Curran.
Surely they can see through the way she has tried to ingratiate herself by implying that she is "one of them". Her claim that she has lived in the East End of Glasgow all her life is yet another blatant lie from this woman. She lives in a £600,000 house in Newlands in the south of Glasgow.
I wonder too, in the unlikely event that she wins, will she be claiming £500,000 for the use of her front room in her house as an office, like David Marshall?
Posted by: Donald Anderson, glasgow on 7:01am Sun 20 Jul 08
The postal votes have tripled since the general election and were in early, almost as soon as the snap election was a. Guess which party organised that? Guess which party has already organised the dead man's vote? Guess which party has all the polling clerks? Vote early and vote often. Old Labour motto.
Was talking to an ex Labour activist yesterdsy, who assured me that it was all sewn up. Hope the SNP agents are alert to this and are camcording the tellers, as well as checking the deceased on the register with the obituary columns since the last electoral roll, plus a tight eye on the postal votes when they come in. Labour was caught out in Birmingham. It is time they were exposed in Scotland.
Mohammed Sarwar was accussed of this and Maggie Curran was his election agent.
The postal votes have tripled since the general election and were in early, almost as soon as the snap election was a. Guess which party organised that? Guess which party has already organised the dead man's vote? Guess which party has all the polling clerks? Vote early and vote often. Old Labour motto.
Was talking to an ex Labour activist yesterdsy, who assured me that it was all sewn up. Hope the SNP agents are alert to this and are camcording the tellers, as well as checking the deceased on the register with the obituary columns since the last electoral roll, plus a tight eye on the postal votes when they come in. Labour was caught out in Birmingham. It is time they were exposed in Scotland.
Mohammed Sarwar was accussed of this and Maggie Curran was his election agent.
Posted by: Themunnster, Hamilton on 7:14am Sun 20 Jul 08
Why would Maggie Broon would rather visit Baghdad than Glasgow?
Why would Maggie Broon would rather visit Baghdad than Glasgow?
Posted by: Jimmy the Pie on 7:33am Sun 20 Jul 08
I have just done a risk assessment on the announcement of the Glasgow East by-election.
When John Mason is announced as MP for the constituency he will have to wear double hearing protection, full body armour, face shield and a Formula 1 crash helmet.
Safety boots are recommended but not essential.
If John Mason was an employee it would be illegal for any employer to force him to attend the count. It would not be worth the risk!!
Children should not attend the count, with a minimum age of 25 recommended to avoid serious brain damage.
To make the count safe for everyone, Maggie Currant should not be allowed to attend, and should be held in a hermetically sealed room, preferably on Rannoch Moor.
Think Safety!
I have just done a risk assessment on the announcement of the Glasgow East by-election.
When John Mason is announced as MP for the constituency he will have to wear double hearing protection, full body armour, face shield and a Formula 1 crash helmet.
Safety boots are recommended but not essential.
If John Mason was an employee it would be illegal for any employer to force him to attend the count. It would not be worth the risk!!
Children should not attend the count, with a minimum age of 25 recommended to avoid serious brain damage.
To make the count safe for everyone, Maggie Currant should not be allowed to attend, and should be held in a hermetically sealed room, preferably on Rannoch Moor.
Think Safety!
Posted by: Im no really here, but over there on 8:16am Sun 20 Jul 08
[quote][bold]Graeme Thomson[/bold] wrote:
The latest pic from Iraq on the Independent website is priceless and will haunt "gung-ho" Gordon Brown forever.
The article says a No.10 aide went ashen-white when he saw the image – and no wonder. Perhaps the SNP should use this image and the one with the PM warmly welcoming Maggie Thatcher to Downing Street in their campaign in Glasgow East to show just how "in-tough" with urban Scots this PM is. [/quote] So Gordon Brown IS visiting Glasgow East after all.
Graeme Thomson wrote:
The latest pic from Iraq on the Independent website is priceless and will haunt "gung-ho" Gordon Brown forever.
The article says a No.10 aide went ashen-white when he saw the image – and no wonder. Perhaps the SNP should use this image and the one with the PM warmly welcoming Maggie Thatcher to Downing Street in their campaign in Glasgow East to show just how "in-tough" with urban Scots this PM is.
So Gordon Brown IS visiting Glasgow East after all.
Posted by: Earman, Dumfries on 8:20am Sun 20 Jul 08
....and, even as the water started lapping around his feet, Canute , comfortable in his conceit, denied that it was so, and proclaimed to all who, slave-like, remained that the irresistable tide was, [italic]in fact[/italic] , receding. [italic]However[/italic] ........
....and, even as the water started lapping around his feet, Canute , comfortable in his conceit, denied that it was so, and proclaimed to all who, slave-like, remained that the irresistable tide was,
in fact , receding.
However ........
Posted by: Im no really here, but over there on 8:25am Sun 20 Jul 08
There is a good take-off of the picture of Gung-Ho Gordon at:
http://www.telegraph
.co.uk/opinion/index
.jhtml
The heading on the cartoon - APOCALYPSE NOW.
Listen to what people on the ground, like Am Balach, Skye on 1:56am, are saying, and [bold]Stop believing what you read in the Scottish Press - especially next week.[/bold]
There is a good take-off of the picture of Gung-Ho Gordon at:
http://www.telegraph
.co.uk/opinion/index
.jhtml
The heading on the cartoon - APOCALYPSE NOW.
Listen to what people on the ground, like Am Balach, Skye on 1:56am, are saying, and
Stop believing what you read in the Scottish Press - especially next week. Posted by: Ronald, Glagow on 8:48am Sun 20 Jul 08
Its all going TONTO for THE NEW LABOUR PARTY.
According to a Sunday Newspaper, one Margaret
Curran, that well known - and deeply loved ! -
"Eastender" has been facing "hostility" on the doorsteps, whilst out canvasing.
Apparently, some of the natives - being restless at the unpressedented attacks upon them by NEW LABOUR animals , are fighting back :
Ms Curran has been showered with - wait for it - old furniture -dropped on the good Lady
hahhahahhahahhahahha
hahhahahaha - from a great height !!!
Its all going TONTO for THE NEW LABOUR PARTY.
According to a Sunday Newspaper, one Margaret
Curran, that well known - and deeply loved ! -
"Eastender" has been facing "hostility" on the doorsteps, whilst out canvasing.
Apparently, some of the natives - being restless at the unpressedented attacks upon them by NEW LABOUR animals , are fighting back :
Ms Curran has been showered with - wait for it - old furniture -dropped on the good Lady
hahhahahhahahhahahha
hahhahahaha - from a great height !!!
Posted by: sceptic sid on 8:51am Sun 20 Jul 08
morning ,i complained to bbc radio labour again yesterday, and i think the daily record was reporting on a different scotland than the one i live in. i hope that the Anyone But Labour vote have the sense to place their vote sensibly.
if the alexanders were invovlved in any way with the postal vote then it should be recounted fully by U.N. Observers, so high is the risk of vote rigging.
be ready for friday and the "it's only a bye election" c rap
morning ,i complained to bbc radio labour again yesterday, and i think the daily record was reporting on a different scotland than the one i live in. i hope that the Anyone But Labour vote have the sense to place their vote sensibly.
if the alexanders were invovlved in any way with the postal vote then it should be recounted fully by U.N. Observers, so high is the risk of vote rigging.
be ready for friday and the "it's only a bye election" c rap
Posted by: Im no really here, but over there on 9:00am Sun 20 Jul 08
[quote][bold]sceptic sid[/bold] wrote:
morning ,i complained to bbc radio labour again yesterday, and i think the daily record was reporting on a different scotland than the one i live in. i hope that the Anyone But Labour vote have the sense to place their vote sensibly.
if the alexanders were invovlved in any way with the postal vote then it should be recounted fully by U.N. Observers, so high is the risk of vote rigging.
be ready for friday and the "it's only a bye election" c rap [/quote] It may only be a by-election, but remember that the SNP have overtaken Labour in the poll on Westminster voting intentions. So "it's only a by-election" just won't wash any more.
sceptic sid wrote:
morning ,i complained to bbc radio labour again yesterday, and i think the daily record was reporting on a different scotland than the one i live in. i hope that the Anyone But Labour vote have the sense to place their vote sensibly.
if the alexanders were invovlved in any way with the postal vote then it should be recounted fully by U.N. Observers, so high is the risk of vote rigging.
be ready for friday and the "it's only a bye election" c rap
It may only be a by-election, but remember that the SNP have overtaken Labour in the poll on Westminster voting intentions. So "it's only a by-election" just won't wash any more.
Posted by: Jennifer Tailya, Getting them out on 9:12am Sun 20 Jul 08
How did they get the monkey to sit still long enough for the plasterer to apply the make up?
How did they get the monkey to sit still long enough for the plasterer to apply the make up?
Posted by: Faux Cu, Palais Bourbon on 9:27am Sun 20 Jul 08
[quote][bold]Themunnster[/bold] wrote:
Why would Maggie Broon would rather visit Baghdad than Glasgow?[/quote] He is in Israel right now looking to cross into Gaza so that he can get some insight into male longivity
Themunnster wrote:
Why would Maggie Broon would rather visit Baghdad than Glasgow?
He is in Israel right now looking to cross into Gaza so that he can get some insight into male longivity
Posted by: it's the sums, stoopid, tamref on 9:53am Sun 20 Jul 08
dear george alexander,
'Of the remaining 8700 the SNP need 3500 more than Lab – SNP 5500 to Lab 3200'........is all your analysis based on dodgy figures like this?
you couldn't make it up.....but keep trying george, keep trying.
dear george alexander,
'Of the remaining 8700 the SNP need 3500 more than Lab – SNP 5500 to Lab 3200'........is all your analysis based on dodgy figures like this?
you couldn't make it up.....but keep trying george, keep trying.
Posted by: george alexander, north lanarkshire on 10:07am Sun 20 Jul 08
[bold]IGNORE THE TROLLS !![/bold]
Posted by: it's the sums, stoopid, tamref on 10:15am Sun 20 Jul 08
well have you checked the figures , george!!!
or are you gonna re-write the whole lot!!!
well have you checked the figures , george!!!
or are you gonna re-write the whole lot!!!
Posted by: Martin, Edinburgh on 10:28am Sun 20 Jul 08
Aside from how badly Labour are doing here - why is the media generally ignoring the £500,000 expense claims for the last Labour MP for Glasgow East -which looks like most of it went to his wife and daughter?
It is only in the blogs that this is mentioned. WHY?
We should ask Margaret Curran what she would spend £0.5 million on to improve the area!
Aside from how badly Labour are doing here - why is the media generally ignoring the £500,000 expense claims for the last Labour MP for Glasgow East -which looks like most of it went to his wife and daughter?
It is only in the blogs that this is mentioned. WHY?
We should ask Margaret Curran what she would spend £0.5 million on to improve the area!
Posted by: its the sums,stoopid, tamref on 10:33am Sun 20 Jul 08
george, its a simple point.
have you made a mistake with your basic arithmetic?
it's easily done, george.
although i'm not sure how you actually did it.
i'm not saying the rest of your figures are wrong.but you need to make that correction.
then you need to double check the rest.
thats 'double' george as in multiply by 2.
george, its a simple point.
have you made a mistake with your basic arithmetic?
it's easily done, george.
although i'm not sure how you actually did it.
i'm not saying the rest of your figures are wrong.but you need to make that correction.
then you need to double check the rest.
thats 'double' george as in multiply by 2.
Posted by: it's the sums, stoopid, tamref on 10:37am Sun 20 Jul 08
martin, you seem a reasonably intelligent person.
could you check george's figures for him?
and maybe you can explain that 0.5 is the same as 1/2.
george might not get that bit.
martin, you seem a reasonably intelligent person.
could you check george's figures for him?
and maybe you can explain that 0.5 is the same as 1/2.
george might not get that bit.
Posted by: mchardie on 10:43am Sun 20 Jul 08
If the Labour party can increase their share of the vote in Glasgow East,I'll be the first to accept it as a vote of confidence in Labour and their achievements in Scotland.
If the Labour party can increase their share of the vote in Glasgow East,I'll be the first to accept it as a vote of confidence in Labour and their achievements in Scotland.
Posted by: albagirl, alba on 10:45am Sun 20 Jul 08
Margaret millionaire is completly two faced to have the gall to say she is now going to fight for the issues that matter. Did the LIEBOUR party fight to save the post offices? I think not. They are closing them.
Did she fight to stop an illegal war in Iraq/reduce prescription charges etc? i think not.She is a walking embodiment of all the labour lies and deceit. Shame on you labour liars,you are all about self interest.
We won't believe your lies any more.
Margaret millionaire is completly two faced to have the gall to say she is now going to fight for the issues that matter. Did the LIEBOUR party fight to save the post offices? I think not. They are closing them.
Did she fight to stop an illegal war in Iraq/reduce prescription charges etc? i think not.She is a walking embodiment of all the labour lies and deceit. Shame on you labour liars,you are all about self interest.
We won't believe your lies any more.
Posted by: it's the sums, stoopid, tamref on 10:59am Sun 20 Jul 08
hey alba,
you musn't display 'the politics of envy'.
it will cloud your judgement.
you should be more concerned with george alexanders weak grasp of arithmetic.
more funding for numeracy is the way forward.
hey alba,
you musn't display 'the politics of envy'.
it will cloud your judgement.
you should be more concerned with george alexanders weak grasp of arithmetic.
more funding for numeracy is the way forward.
Posted by: Im no really here, but over there on 11:10am Sun 20 Jul 08
[quote][bold]george alexander[/bold] wrote:
[bold]IGNORE THE TROLLS !![/bold] [/quote] Well said.
george alexander wrote:
IGNORE THE TROLLS !!
Well said.
Posted by: it's the sums, stoopid, tamref on 11:10am Sun 20 Jul 08
dear morag of peebleshire,
what a gratuitous condascending comment to make.
maybe the good people of the east end of glasgow have had a look at the sunday telegraph, the independent AND the SUNDAY TIMES!!!.maybe they don't like what they read in those three useless rags.maybe they are more discerning than you think.
that was a really cheap comment morag and you should be ashamed of yourself,hardly up to the standards of a SUNDAY TIMES!!!! reader.
dear morag of peebleshire,
what a gratuitous condascending comment to make.
maybe the good people of the east end of glasgow have had a look at the sunday telegraph, the independent AND the SUNDAY TIMES!!!.maybe they don't like what they read in those three useless rags.maybe they are more discerning than you think.
that was a really cheap comment morag and you should be ashamed of yourself,hardly up to the standards of a SUNDAY TIMES!!!! reader.
Posted by: Curley Bill, the southwest on 11:11am Sun 20 Jul 08
'it's the sums,'
Listen bud, George Alexander has been posting on these boards a long time, and I trust his figures a lot more than the made-up polls in the unionist media, or the numbers crunched by Westminster designed to show Scotland as a subsidy junkie, when unbiased calculations show we are net contributors.
So, slope off below a bridge somewhere - isn't that what trolls do?
'it's the sums,'
Listen bud, George Alexander has been posting on these boards a long time, and I trust his figures a lot more than the made-up polls in the unionist media, or the numbers crunched by Westminster designed to show Scotland as a subsidy junkie, when unbiased calculations show we are net contributors.
So, slope off below a bridge somewhere - isn't that what trolls do?
Posted by: its's the sums, stoopid, tamref on 11:14am Sun 20 Jul 08
omg,
we've got another arithmetic illiterate supporting george.
if you are unwilling to, (and i choose not to say 'unable to') correct a simple? arithmetic error how on earth can george ever be sent for an evening times if he can't even check his change?
omg,
we've got another arithmetic illiterate supporting george.
if you are unwilling to, (and i choose not to say 'unable to') correct a simple? arithmetic error how on earth can george ever be sent for an evening times if he can't even check his change?
Posted by: it's the sums, stoopid, tamref on 11:21am Sun 20 Jul 08
curly bill,
you cannot be serious.
tell me you dont really trust george's figures.
if you 'trust' george's arithmetic prowess, then you are in need of some basic numeracy as well.
i make that at least 3 slavish followers of george's arithmetic.
keep this up and it'll soon be a cult following.
and we all know what happened to that famous greek arithmetic cult.......don't we?
ok, its traumatic enough trying to unravel george's arithmetic.
curly bill,
you cannot be serious.
tell me you dont really trust george's figures.
if you 'trust' george's arithmetic prowess, then you are in need of some basic numeracy as well.
i make that at least 3 slavish followers of george's arithmetic.
keep this up and it'll soon be a cult following.
and we all know what happened to that famous greek arithmetic cult.......don't we?
ok, its traumatic enough trying to unravel george's arithmetic.
Posted by: it's the sums, stoopid, tamref on 11:33am Sun 20 Jul 08
curly bill,
you seem to be missing something here.
if someone posts a whole lot of figures, shouldn't they be checked out?
if there is an error in these figures, shouldn't it be brought to the attention of the poster?
it doesn't matter how long anyone has been posting. just because george and probably yourself have been posting for AGES!!!! doesn't give you any rights to redefine the rules of arithmetic.
so its not a case of sloping off under bridges, perhaps thats what you would prefer, especially as you don't seem to like having your own arithmetic skills questioned.
however there has to be some integrity in basic figures.
or dont you agree with that?
you curly bill are nothing more than a fully paid up member of the 'george cult' (although your grasp of 'imaginary numbers' seems creatively solid)
curly bill,
you seem to be missing something here.
if someone posts a whole lot of figures, shouldn't they be checked out?
if there is an error in these figures, shouldn't it be brought to the attention of the poster?
it doesn't matter how long anyone has been posting. just because george and probably yourself have been posting for AGES!!!! doesn't give you any rights to redefine the rules of arithmetic.
so its not a case of sloping off under bridges, perhaps thats what you would prefer, especially as you don't seem to like having your own arithmetic skills questioned.
however there has to be some integrity in basic figures.
or dont you agree with that?
you curly bill are nothing more than a fully paid up member of the 'george cult' (although your grasp of 'imaginary numbers' seems creatively solid)
Posted by: Alex Porter, TROLL FREE ZONE on 11:37am Sun 20 Jul 08
CURLEY,
You see what happens when you don't IGNORE THE TROLLS...
CURLEY,
You see what happens when you don't IGNORE THE TROLLS...
Comment | Read Comments (164)