1. UNEMPLOYMENT
BY Westminster Editor James Cusick
Nowhere is safe. This appears to be the core message from the works and pensions secretary, James Purnell, who said this weekend that every part of Britain will be hit by rising levels of unemployment that will, by Christmas, take the numbers out of work to above two million.

This is the estimate taken before the latest and most damaging chapter of the global turn-down caused by the credit crunch and a near fatal international banking collapse.

Economists in such times usually find a safe haven in their own internal language, resorting to impenetrable trends and sector analysis. Not this time. On the Bank of England's monetary policy committee and a respected labour market analyst, David Blanchflower described what lies ahead in words politicians usually run from. "These numbers are truly horrendous and much worse than I feared," said Blanchflower.

He was referring to the statistics for the three months till August this year which has taken unemployment to its highest level since 1991. The current total is just under 1.8 million, a rise in the jobless rate moving from 5.2 to 5.7%.

Blanchflower is certain what happens next; more than two million looking for a job by Christmas. And with a full-blown recession just round the corner, with little prospect that the government can now, at this stage, do no more than watch and sound sympathetic, Capital Economics have forecast that by the end of 2010 the jobless total will hit 9%, around three million.

Among the more left-leaning members of the Parliamentary Labour Party, there is an unease that all hell is going to break loose soon, and that Gordon Brown's current "saviour" status is going to disappear as fast as it arrived. One Midlands MP said: "The Conservatives only have to dust down their old Saatchi & Saatchi posters from 1979 to make the point that whatever we've done in the last 10 years, is about to be undone."

Brendan Barber, the general secretary of the Trades Union Congress, seems to be already preparing for what's coming. "I fear that the whole economy will soon feel the impact of the problems in the banking sector," he said. In a straight translation, that means that whatever the level of new jobs being within the UK economy, the job losses will be higher.

Purnell's comments this weekend show that the government is already bracing itself in preparation for the political fallout that will come with soaring unemployment. The works and pensions department have in recent months been accelerating the gathering of regional jobless statistics to improve the picture they have of how unemployment will hit.

In the last turn-down in the 1980s some areas of Britain escaped, especially London and south east England. This time round, unemployment in London is already estimated to be 300,000 and rising daily as the City's financial institutions re-evaluate their needs in a shrinking market. The latest unemployment figures appear to show increases across Britain and there is no evidence to suggest that the rise towards three million won't be uniformly felt.

The National Statistics Office figures showed a rise of 164,000 in the three months to August. This means 1.79 million unemployed and 29.42 million in employment. Of the new rise, compared to the previous quarterly numbers, 19,000 job losses have taken place in Scotland, 10,000 in Wales, Yorkshire and Humberside lost 17,000, the North West 14,000, the East Midlands 13,000 and the South East 28,000.

What will also be worrying Purnell as he briefs Downing Street on what lies ahead for the jobs market, are other underlying dangers.

Long-term unemployment, where people are out of a job for more than 12 months, is up from 21.6% to 24.5%. Blanchflower has also told the government that he is concerned at the substantial rise in the numbers of young people who are unemployed, many of them school leavers. Youth unemployment was first measured in 1992. The current 56,000 rise is the biggest increase since then.

The jobless total is also reflected in those claiming jobless benefits, a jump of nearly 32,000 taking the total of claimants to 939,000, also the biggest rise since 1992.

The sectors losing jobs at an accelerating rate include the service sector covering hotels and restaurants, the finance and business sectors struggling to deal with the credit crisis and how the bail-out packages announced by governments in the US, Britain, Europe and across the world can help them long-term.

BEYOND the City, vacancies are also down in manufacturing and construction. The Institute for Employment Studies say when the downturn bites fully it is still likely to hit lower skilled workers hardest, those who find it hard to move to a new job and who have less wealth to see them through a tough recession.

In the early 1990s, with steel jobs disappearing from central Scotland, employment advisers were sent into places such as Ravenscraig. Those facing the dole recalled how the advice was far from useful. One former steel worker in Motherwell said: "If we'd all acted on what they said we should do with redundancy cash, there'd be 3000 newspaper and sweet shops here."

This time Purnell is suggesting the government are better prepared, with a promise to make it easier for those hit to take up short-term work, other measures to cut red tape and a one-stop shop approach that would accelerate benefit claims for a person losing their job.

But whatever the Ravenscraig equivalent of newspaper shops is this time, there appears to be no official government line yet. Purnell however was optimistic that the government's budget of £100m to help the unemployed retrain, would work.

For former bankers, Purnell suggested some retraining as driving instructors. The prime minister suggested there was an unexpected silver lining ahead, with those losing their jobs being given the opportunity to retrain as loft-insulators, thereby using new government cash to fight climate change and ease the rush towards three million.

He said the fact that all of this makes no sense at all, indicates the panic that lies ahead. We can't as a government bring ourselves to use the word "recession". Last week we had no choice. We have had 10 years of boom, but the bust is going to be very painful, for everyone."

2. FOOD
By Environment Editor Rob Edwards
AS the credit crunch starts to bite and prices rise, shoppers are changing their habits and starting to search out cheaper food - and avoid the pricier premium brands. Monitoring by the market research company, TNS, has revealed a distinct shift in behaviour over the last year. The most dramatic change is a 34% rise in the sales of supermarkets' own cut-price brands, coupled with a 2% decline in their premium brands and a 9% drop in their more expensive "healthy" products.

TNS research also suggests a growing preference for cut-price food stores, while those that specialise in more expensive food are stagnating. Aldi has experienced a 22% growth in sales over the last year, while Waitrose's market share has declined from 3.9% to 3.8%.

"The search for value intensifies", was how TNS described the "down-trading" trend. The company regularly monitors the buying of 75,000 supermarket food products by 25,000 representative households across the UK. The monitoring also uncovered what TNS called a "severe slowdown" in the growth of the organic food market since Easter. "This is precisely when we have seen the effects of the credit crunch start to creep through into the grocery trade," said TNS's Chris Longbottom.

Total UK spending on supermarket organic food and drink has fallen from nearly £100m a month early this year to £81m a month in the summer. The biggest fall has been in organic eggs, but there have also been drops in organic fruit and vegetables.

According to Longbottom, organic food's share of the market has declined for the first time in five years. Rising prices triggered by high grain costs have caused people to make complicated compromises.

"Consumers seem prepared to pay 20p for a nice, kind free range egg compared to 10p for a battery one," Longbottom said, "but not 30p for an organic one." Sales of fairtrade food, which make up a very small percentage of the market, have held up.

The Soil Association, which certifies organic food, accepted that supermarket sales seemed to have "plateaued".

But it pointed out that TNS's monitoring didn't cover direct organic box' sales from producers.

The association's Scottish director, Hugh Raven, pointed to evidence from one of the UK's largest organic suppliers, Riverford, of a 6% increase in sales over the last year. "It's a mixed picture," he said.

"While the direct sales market is growing, supermarket sales seem to have flattened."

3. SHOPPING
By Rachelle Money
The Scottish Chambers of Commerce released the latest results of the third quarter of 2008 survey which showed declining sales in the retail sector because of a lack of consumer confidence. Retailers anticipate having to raise their prices in order to cope with rising costs of utilities and raw materials. The survey concluded that almost half the retail sector surveyed said they expected a further drop in profitability by the end of the year.

The high street looks like it will take another hit during the festive period as reports suggest 78% of Christmas shoppers will be going online for their presents. That number is up from 56% on last year. It is thought that shoppers will take advantage of competitive pricing and convenience of not having to drive to shopping centres or out-of -town malls.

Some popular fashion retailers have increased the interest rates on their store cards. Karen Millen, Oasis and Principles have pushed up the interest rate by 4.3%, from 24.6% to 28.9%.

Mark Lyonette, chief executive of the Association of British Credit Unions Limited (ABCUL), says: "The news that store card interest rates are on the way up means that shoppers should think twice before putting purchases on their store card."

Michelle Slade, an analyst at Moneyfacts, says: "It wouldn't surprise me if other companies hike their rates over the next few weeks. Where one leads, the others usually follow."

Sales were up just 0.7% in August compared to a year ago, according to the latest figures from the Scottish Retail Consortium. They were the worst August sales figures since 2005. It could also be a quiet Christmas on the high street. Richard Dodd, spokesman for the Scottish Retail Consortium, says: "It's clearly going to be a tough year."

4. TRAVEL
By Helen McArdle
FOREIGN travel and transport may be one of the few bright spots amid the economic turmoil - this week saw several major airlines, including British long-haul leaders Virgin Atlantic and British Airways, cut surcharges for economy class passengers in response to falling crude oil prices.

As the world economy slides towards recession, demand for fuel has ebbed. The cost per barrel fell to a year-low of $69 per barrel on Thursday - down 53% since hitting a record $147 in July. Unfortunately, the surcharge cuts will only equate to a saving of between £5-£13 per passenger.

According to travel association ABTA, however, the credit crunch has done little to dent Brits' enthusiasm for travel - in a survey conducted in September they discovered 83% of holidaymakers who had been on a recent overseas break were planning another within the next 12 months.

Motorists also had cause to cheer last week after Gordon Brown called on petrol companies to reduce their forecourt prices. Supermarket chains Asda and Morrisons have already slashed their prices to less than £1 per litre.

Rail passengers, meanwhile, face a mixed outlook. While Virgin announced plans on Friday to introduce a number of cheap fares from December - among the bargains being a £12 ticket from Glasgow to London Euston - which must be purchased in advance.

Scotrail is set to review its ticket prices in January. Although a spokesman said it would "not be speculating at this stage", a large proportion of Scotrail's fares - including off-peak returns, season tickets, and all travel in the Strathclyde region - are set by Transport Scotland, pegged at inflation plus 1%. On the basis of current retail price inflation at 5%, passengers face a 6% hike in tickets in the New Year.

5. CHARITY
By John Bynorth
SCOTTISH voluntary groups have seen business sponsorship almost totally dry up over the last seven years, with the figure expected to plunge further with the difficulties facing major banks during the credit crunch, according to a new survey.

The Scottish Council for Voluntary Organisations (SCVO) will publish a report tomorrow that shows corporate firms accounted for 0.3% of the country's income in the sector in 2006, the last year for which figures are available, against 1% four years ago and 3% in 2001.

Lucy McTernan, acting chief executive of the SCVO, warned that donors such as Royal Bank of Scotland, which contributed £57.7 million last year to community programmes worldwide, including a recently launched partnership with Macmillan Cancer Support and the Lone Parent Helpline which it solely funded, could be "compromised".

She said: "The worry for the voluntary sector is that corporate social responsibility will fall further down the list of priorities, especially for the financial services industry.

"The paradox is that as we enter even tougher economic times, the services of the voluntary sector will be needed more than ever. Yet without continued support form business and the public, the sector will struggle to keep up."

Ellenor Ferguson, Epilepsy Scotland's head of fundraising, said charity events were suffering from the financial crisis - corporate fundraising contributes a fifth of the charity's budget. Tickets for its annual black tie Wags dinners in Glasgow and Edinburgh, which each usually raise around £45,000, are selling poorly; Breast Cancer Campaign's Pink Tartan Ball has been called off and another leading charity event is also rumoured to have been scrapped.

Ferguson said some firms were aware they could not be seen to be enjoying lavish hospitality in the current economic climate.

6. THE CLIMATE
By Rob Edwards
THE credit crisis is squeezing investment in the renewables sector - but may provide the catalyst we need to avoid a catastrophic "climate crunch" in future. Claims made earlier this month by American biofuel entrepreneur Arnold Klann, that a shortage of capital was stunting the industry, echoed warnings made by green energy banker Tanja Cuppen in September, who predicted the credit crunch would have a "major impact" on the renewables sector, making the EU's target to cut CO2 emissions by 20% within the next 12 years impossible.

The part-nationalisation of Royal Bank of Scotland - the world's largest investor in sustainable energies - and the precarious situation of Barclays, another major financier of renewables projects, has lent credibility to their forecasts.

In 2007, project financing by banks worldwide accounted for at least 39% of all investment into zero-carbon energy. A further 22% - $23.4 billion - was raised by clean energy companies floating on the stock market, but recent weeks have seen profits there dive. Even private equity and venture capital funding, just 9% of the total, could be hampered by the reluctance of banks to enter into investment partnerships.

While Renewable Obligation Certificates - effectively "green subsidies" for energy providers - offer a significant market pull for utilities companies whose balance sheets are still buoyant, and for whom investment in renewables such as windfarms remains strategically important, a reduction in bank lending would be a major blow.

Professor Tim Jackson, chairman of the Sustainable Development Commission, said it has seen a "throttling" in funding availability during the past six to nine months. However, he also expects when cash flow resumes, funding into renewables will increase, driven by energy security imperatives and economic returns, rather than climate concerns.

7. SPORT
By Steven Downes
THE message was writ large all around Chris Hoy as he led Britain's Olympic and Paralympic medallists on their victory parade this week: every flag carried the logo for a credit card while the local evening newspaper had messages of congratulations from a bank that had earlier this year pledged more than £60 million towards the costs of the 2012 Games.

Sport has been mainlining sponsorship money for the last four decades, but it is going to have to undergo some painful cold turkey as business backers halt the gravy train.

In general, modern sport pursues three main sources of income: gate receipts, TV revenue and sponsorship.

Football, through mega-billion pound broadcast deals, has insulated itself to some degree from the financial crisis, though there may be embarrassments, such as West Ham's shirt deal with now-defunct travel firm XL.

More serious problems will face clubs such as Liverpool, where its American owners cannot find loans to pay for a stadium redevelopment, yet still need to find around £20m each year just to make the repayments on existing £350m borrowing. In all, England's 20 elite clubs owe £2.5bn.

As the cancellation this week of the 2009 F1 French Grand Prix showed, it is the sponsorship market that is expected to feel the effects of the credit squeeze first.

Which is why international rugby could soon be feeling the pinch as RBS gets to reassess its sponsorship commitments.

The bank has a wide portfolio of sporting commitments: golf's Open Championships; Andy Murray and Zara Phillips; and "a major sponsorship" of the Williams Formula 1 motor racing team.

Its £4m per year title sponsorship of Six Nations rugby is due to end in March.

With the deal for rugby's English Premiership also up for renegotiation at the end of this season, the words of John Maynard Keynes won't offer much encouragement: "The market can remain irrational a lot longer than some people can remain solvent."

8. THE ARTS
By Edd McCracken
The entire art world was focussed on a leafy corner of London's Regent's Park last week as the Frieze Art Fair got under way - not just for the visual art on display, but to see if anyone was buying. By being the first major gathering since the economy's recent near-meltdown, Frieze had unwittingly been transformed into the barometer for how art will fare in the inclement financial situation.

And the outlook? Fair with some cloudy periods ahead. Visitor numbers were steady, those of casual buyers less so.

Susannah Beaumont, who runs Edinburgh's Doggerfisher gallery, said: "People are looking and buying, whereas in previous years people were running and buying. Art will survive. People are still liking art."

Terry Anderson, president of the Scottish Artists Union, which represents the visual arts, said: "It's far too soon to know as it'll take time to filter through, but there are absolutely worries and concerns especially at a time when the landscape is being remoulded with Creative Scotland."

Within the sponsorship departments of the unsettled banking triumvirate, Royal Bank of Scotland, Lloyds TSB and Bank of Scotland, the message is clear: it is business as usual. Between them they plough millions of pounds into events including Edinburgh International Book Festival, Edinburgh International Festival, and Aye Write. Several recent exhibitions at the National Galleries of Scotland have also received sponsorship.

"We're going ahead as normal with all the sponsors we work with," said a galleries spokeswoman.

Film has long been considered a "recession proof" art form. Cinema takings sometimes increase during economic downturns as people consider a trip to the multiplex an "affordable luxury", according to a Scottish Screen spokeswoman. If the credit crunch is making any dent on film making in Scotland it has yet to be seen, she said, adding: "There is still plenty of production activity currently."

9. HOUSING
By James Cusick
Do you want your housing forecast to be slightly depressing, gloomy or just doom-laden? This is the question home owners who want to sell and those who want to buy, will be asking their mortgage providers and estate agents.

The chief UK economist of Morgan Stanley, Professor David Miles, believes the slump could be over by next year, if home loans fall by a further half a point, and the government's plan to re-capitalise Britain's banks works, and they all begin lending to each other on a significant scale.

But before even this optimism kicks in, the gloom will continue. The 5% to 10% fall industry-wide prediction for next year, wiping a further £17,000 off the average UK home, could be eased if Miles proves to be right. And if he's wrong?

Cass Business School don't see it like that. Andrew Clare, head of asset management, believes house prices could slide by a further 40%, taking UK house prices to 2023 before they matched the level reached in 2007.

With the government reliant on housing to return as the mechanism that will kick-start the UK's recession economy back to normal, there is not much to be gained on focusing on these extremes.

But the reality is bleak. The Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (Rics) report the housing market to be getting worse. The volume of properties sold across the UK is at its lowest level since 1978. Rics reports that 91% of estate agents say that prices are continuing to fall as they have been over the last three months. Halifax and Nationwide say prices have dropped by 12% over the last year.

The Council of Mortgage Lenders are reporting 42,000 purchases across the UK for August - 59% lower than 12 months ago.

There is a general recognition that house prices will slide a further 15% by the end of next year. The damage left? This rate of decline will leave five million properties across the UK with a lower value than the purchase price. The bad news is that the UK is only half-way through the pain.

Good news? The smallest declines in value are predicted to be in Northern Ireland, Wales and Scotland.

10. ... And 10 reasons to be cheerful
By Tom Shields
1: Be cheerful on my behalf that my money has been totally unaffected by the crisis. I did not buy shares in HBOS or Bradford & Bingley. I spent it on shoes for the children, travel, fine dining, wine and wild women. Well, one wild woman mostly: the wife.

2: Be cheerful when you think of all those friends and relatives who criticised your financial frivolity while they lived frugally to invest in HBOS, Bradford & Bingley etc.

3: Be cheerful that George W Bush will not be president of the USA in three months. This is nothing to do with the credit crunch. Just be cheerful that George W Bush will not be president of the USA in three months.

4: Be cheerful that you will receive much less email spam urging you to buy penny shares and retirement homes in Costa Rica. You will probably continue to receive the same number of emails offering to increase the size of your penis by four inches.

5: Be cheerful that the property correction should see an end to those TV programmes where a Home Counties couple sell their house and use the proceeds to buy a castle in Spain, a gite in Normandy, a duplex in New York and a pied-a-terre in Wester Hailes.

6: Be cheerful that a reduction in disposable income will give you a chance to get healthier. Now that the BMW has been repossessed, jog to the buroo.

7: Be cheerful that with the cutbacks (alleged) on bonuses in the City, there may be a merchant banker somewhere who is worse off than you.

8: Be cheerful that, with the crackdown (alleged) on bosses allocating themselves huge bonuses, MPs will also declare it is inequitable that politicians should be the last sector of society to set their own rates of remuneration. No?

9: Be cheerful that the Great Depression has finally given Gordon Brown something to smile about.

10 : Be cheerful that you now have the opportunity to use such phrases as: what does not kill us makes us stronger; we've never died during a winter yet; and to hell with poverty, chuck another lump of coal on the fire.