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August 22, 2008 Est 1999 Scotland's award-winning independent newspaper
Don’t kid yourself: the housing slump really is on its way
Iain Macwhirter on property

HOW OFTEN must I say it? Falling house prices are a good thing, not a bad thing. It was property madness that got us into this financial mess in the first place, and the credit crisis will not be resolved, will not begin to be resolved, until house prices start to become more rational. That means house prices must come down.

Average UK house prices of over eight times average earnings are unsustainable, morally and financially. Most home owners, sitting on large paper gains, know and accept this; many have the decency to be embarrassed about it. The government knows it too but can't face up to what it means. Ministers prattle about the need for "affordable housing" and then introduce more measures designed to keep prices from falling, ie becoming affordable.

It was last week's announcement by the Halifax that UK house prices had fallen by 2.5% in March that led to the latest housing panic. The editorials cried out for dramatic cuts in interest rates "to prevent a housing meltdown". The prime minister insisted, like some real-estate Canute, that the fall was "containable". Alistair Darling then threw a token £1500 at first-time buyers (which sounded suspiciously like the SNP's £2000 bung-that-never-was) and set up a mortgage review under the former boss of HBOS.

Brown then leant on the governor of the Bank of England to cut interest rates by announcing, falsely, that "Because we've got low inflation we can cut interest rates." Mervyn King dutifully obliged, cutting base rates to 5% in what was described as a "desperate bid to halt the slide", even though the slide has hardly started and the cut will have no impact on mortgage rates, which continue to go up.

Brilliant! When central bankers start setting interest rates to placate politicians, you know that we really are doomed. It was low interest rates that inflated the housing bubble, so let's have another dose! One last puff of air in the £3 trillion balloon.

To repeat: a housing "collapse" is necessary and unavoidable if the economy is to be restored to anything like equilibrium. You cannot have a stable financial system while property prices are so high that people on average earnings and higher cannot afford to enter the market. This forces working families to take out loans they cannot afford, which leads to default, which leads to the collapse of bonds, which leads to Northern Rock. The governor of the Bank of England, Mervyn King, should know this better than anyone, since he had to deal with the collapse of Britain's fifth largest bank. Now the Council of Mortgage Lenders is demanding yet more cash from the government to deal with the "mortgage famine" they have created by their own irresponsible lending.

The Bank of England is not supposed to look after the welfare of banks; that is down to the Financial Services Authority. The Bank of England has one simple task: combating inflation by keeping the Consumer Prices Index below 2%. So why is it cutting interest rates when the index is 2.5% and rising fast? Real inflation, as anyone who lives in a house, drives a car or goes to the shops knows, is well over 4%, and there is a lot more inflation in the pipeline. If the Bank were doing its job, interest rates should be static or even being raised. But it is at moments like this that you realise that the country is being governed by fools, by people who behave in a contradictory and irrational manner.

Forget inflation: house prices have been the prime focus of economic policy for the past decade. Labour won two elections by betting on house prices. Property values nearly doubled in time for the 2001 general election and nearly doubled again for the 2005 general election. Middle-class home owners saw their principal asset rise in value by around £100,000. Not surprising, then, that they were minded to vote Labour.

The only problem was that this was the most reckless economic mismanagement in modern history. The housing bubble, and the consumer boom based on it, was a deliberate act of policy, as former Bank governor Eddie George admitted to a Commons committee in March last year. He knew it couldn't last forever but suggested, as John Maynard Keynes said, that "in the long run we are all dead".

In the long run we may be dead, but our children will be very much alive and having to cope with the mess left by their parents. I already feel a deep sense of guilt about what my generation has bequeathed: we have damaged the climate, debased politics and left young people with the choice of unsustainable debt or what will effectively amount to homelessness.

The Dad's Army of bank managers who made our parents sweat about how they would pay their mortgages, pegged at two and a half times earnings with a 10% deposit, did so because they understood the evil of debt, how it destroys families and lives. Modern bank managers are pushers luring vulnerable people into a fatal addiction through credit cards, 125% mortgages and unsecured loans. I still get junk mail every day trying to get me to "consolidate" my debts, ie borrow more. These people have lost any sense of social responsibility.

But they have created an economy in our own image. Our greedy and grasping materialism is what allowed the financial services sector to destroy the stable society of low house prices, secure pensions, social welfare and public housing that the post-war generation built. It came apart in the 1980s with council house sales, the biggest bribe in modern history and the moment our collective obsession with property began. Now, after a tripling of house prices, Britain is the most indebted country in the developed world.

The property market has made a fool of anyone who has tried to run a business. Why slave for years to build a firm when, just by sitting in a house in London, or even parts of Edinburgh, you could turn into a millionaire?

Property madness has made fools of anyone who has ever saved for their old age. Why bother when all the tax advantages go to houses, which are free of tax? The government encouraged us to pour more and more money we didn't have into houses because they stupidly believed that high house prices equalled prosperity.

Gordon Brown likes to pretend that the credit crunch begins and ends in the US. It isn't, and it won't. House prices have risen far higher here relative to earnings than they ever did in America and have a lot further to fall - 30%, according to the International Monetary Fund. The only compensation is that it is likely to destroy Gordon Brown's place in history.

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Posted by: Tearlach, Sutherland on 8:27pm Sat 12 Apr 08
As someone who has lived, and brought up a family, in the same house for nearly 23 years, and has no intention off ever moving, house prices should be of little interest too me.

Except the brought up a family bit - Iain is spot on with what the past 30 years has bequeathed my sons..... either insurmountable debt or a lifetime as a tenant. When I graduated and moved back to the Highlands house prices were about three times my salary, just under average for that time.

Now? Even here in the North my lads will have to find eight times what they will earn when leaving Uni. In the south I guess its a lot worst.

Part of me says "Bring on the house price crash!" but I know its a house of cards, and what else will that bring.......
Posted by: Jwil, Lanarkshire on 8:33pm Sat 12 Apr 08
Alistair Darling then threw a token £1500 at first-time buyers (which sounded suspiciously like the SNP's £2000 bung-that-never-was)

Exactly!
Posted by: Bruce, Ayrshire on 8:40pm Sat 12 Apr 08
Iain is quite right. A correction has to happen. That anyone can still believe that the only way is up defies logic. The real famine will come when people simply cannot afford their first house, but this is not the only problem. Struggling like hell to pay housing costs means more people working more hours, tied to the millstone and not bothering about the real quality of life.

Is it any wonder that the US and Britain score so highly in the depression and unhappy league tables? The only winners here are those at the very top of what in effect is a pyramid scam.
Posted by: Jonathan Speck, London on 8:46pm Sat 12 Apr 08
What an excellent article. It explains everything as we know it to be rather than what Gordon and co would like us to think.
Posted by: Donald, Twechar on 8:52pm Sat 12 Apr 08
Cental Bankers are the trouble....see this google money masters and watch in awe
Posted by: Paul, UK on 9:04pm Sat 12 Apr 08
Keep up the good work Iain. I always enjoy reading your articles.
Posted by: Peter, Colombia on 9:11pm Sat 12 Apr 08
I could not agree more, what a great article.
Yet, many of us have been part of what happened, many bought into the bubble.

Here, in the Caribbean the bubble gets bigger every day. We are a year behind.
Posted by: Daffyd Jones, Glasgow on 9:19pm Sat 12 Apr 08
Brilliant article!

Great to see someone demolish the tired old argument that high house prices equates to higher national wealth - in fact the opposite is true, we have become ever more indebted.

Low house prices will be a blessing to our economy and to our society.
Posted by: Observer on 9:35pm Sat 12 Apr 08
Great article Iain. It is brave of you to say a housing collapse is necessary, but that is the truth and I think we all know it. There will be a lot of people who will get hurt when that happens, and I hope they realise who to blame for this madness - Gordon Brown and the Labour Party. I also hope this makes more people realise that there is nothing wrong with renting, our European counterparts are quite happy renting, they regard our obsession with owner occupation as quite insane. Can we bury Thatcher's property owning democracy please, once and for all.
Posted by: GPR, Norfolk on 9:40pm Sat 12 Apr 08
Can I just congratulate you on being prepared to state the truth about this whole fiasco. The sooner thei bubble is burst the sooner the economy can return to some sort of sanity. At the moment all I see is a government grovelling to placate an over-stretched electorate and the whole housing industry who are annoyed that the good times of plenty have been finally kicked into touch.
Posted by: Wullie on 9:42pm Sat 12 Apr 08
Ah - but this is the policy of New Labour.

What do you think PFI was all about. Banking debt, banking debt and more banking debt.Same for housing!

Prudence, prudence prudence you heard the man with the moral compass call.

Well this is what yiou bought, so let us not be surprised.
Posted by: Rob, Isle of Wight on 9:55pm Sat 12 Apr 08
What a great article - just why can't the meainstream get their head around it? And why has it taken supposedly intelligent people so long to actually (a) realise the massive implications of the borrowing binge, and (b) realise that high prices produce nothing other than a lifetime of interest payments that produce jack?

But, although I feel for a lot of recent first buyers who are about to get their fingers scalded, I really look forward to the political fallout - now that should be fun - the Scottish Mafia on the run!!
Posted by: Jake Brumby, High Wycombe on 10:09pm Sat 12 Apr 08
It's refreshing to read a no-nonsense summary of the situation we are in. You've summed it all up Iain.

Prices must come down and it is a good thing. We need this correction to return to sane levels. The PM should not try to stop a crash - he can't stop it and will only make things worse by trying to.

It's time for a change in British politics and I predict a massive swing at the next election. Labour hasn't a hope in hell, particularly seeing as Brown fuelled this housing bubble through low interest rates. Pack your bags Gordon.
Posted by: C Phillips, Edinburgh on 10:22pm Sat 12 Apr 08
Well said, sir. Well. Said. (Tips hat.)
Posted by: John Mack, Aberdeen on 10:36pm Sat 12 Apr 08
"Why slave for years to build a firm when, just by sitting in a house in London, or even parts of Edinburgh, you could turn into a millionaire?"

This is the single most important comment in the whole of the piece (almost all of which I agree with, by the way), and I can't believe that so few commentators have given it any intention. We have created a society in which THERE IS NO INCENTIVE TO DO WORK RATHER THAN ENGAGE IN PROPERTY SPECULATION. Why work when you can take out a BTL mortgage and get somebody else to work for you? Why set up a business when you can flip a house and make 40 grand in a year just sitting on your backside? But the only way this laziness and profligacy will be paid for is if the young generation agrees to pick up the tab by committing themselves to a lifetime of mortgage slavery. If house prices do not drop, I urge all youngsters to leave the country and leave their greedy elders to their fate: a country with no new business, no tax base and a failing infrastructure, propped up perhaps only by huge levels of immigration.
Posted by: Chris, Keith, Banffshire on 10:50pm Sat 12 Apr 08
One of the best written and succinct articles I've read in a long while - well done Iain. The madness of the whole situation is that we have become one of the most indebted nations on the planet by buying houses that, in the vast majority of cases, we already owned.
Posted by: Nikostratos on 11:00pm Sat 12 Apr 08
Lot bottom kissers on here so far.Oh ian we do love u........Well i don't he is a first class stirrer and all just for selling a few more papers.

Any way if you want sensible house prices let builder build houses wherever they are needed and don't let the N.I.M.B.Y S win.

And then let the government (westminster) give guidelines to banking on lending for mortgages..say 3 and 1/2 time salary and if any ones lends more fine only when people are in a position they can not pay the mortgage. Then tough on the lender and do not allow any legal redress to enable them to pursue the cash owed.That'll.That'll stop the crazy lending........

There u go Build more houses and at affordable prices
Posted by: Nebulous, Aberdeen on 11:06pm Sat 12 Apr 08
A good article. Houses have to, but have to fall. I am expecting a 50% fall in 2 years, but even that does not take us back beyond about 2002 levels. Here is an article I posted in the Herald yesterday, giving a simplified view of some of the practices financial institutions engaged in. The url will probably wrap- despite me using tinyurl.

http://tinyurl.com/5

4ra6c
Posted by: jason, 166-129 on 11:09pm Sat 12 Apr 08
The house price fall is likly to be far more than most think, as the run up in house price inflation has lasted longer than the late 1980's surge in house price inflation, I think
the bottom will be in 2013 to 2016 but the pick up in house price inflation thereafter
will be subdued at a slugs pace, you ain't seen
nothing yet, what about the untouchable "D" markets, $500 Trillion Dollors plus????????????????



?............ Mr J P W
Posted by: Private Frazer a.k.a. Cynicus on 11:28pm Sat 12 Apr 08
We're doomed!
We're ALL doomed!
Posted by: Cyber Nat, Edinborg on 11:33pm Sat 12 Apr 08
Alistair Darling probably thinks he can now lecture the world on financial rectitude.

He thinks we are all stupid and won't notice that he's trying to look like this is new when he has not been practising what he belatedly preaches.

tinyurl.com/3glljg

Gordon's toast as well. "The worst Labour Prime Minister ever".

tinyurl.com/44amtr

Posted by: Scamp on 11:37pm Sat 12 Apr 08
Yes - house prices do need to fall but the other thing I would dearly see happen is that one major bank goes down as well.

It has to be remembered that the banks helped engineer the house price bubble by encouraging people to take on larger and larger mortgages.

They have to learn the lesson that this can't happen again but if they're allowed to get away with it then you can guarantee that the first opportunity they get they'll restart the cycle.

One of them needs to be sacrificed!
Posted by: Martin, Edinburgh on 12:12am Sun 13 Apr 08
A lot of comments above along the lines of - as if anyone with a mortgage was a greedy lazy person.

Some people just wanted a roof over their heads without some private landlord telling them - no pets, no this , no that - get out in one month please....

People hurt will those first time buyers over the last 3 years who have bought at ( in hindsight) were inflated prices. Banks were the big gainers - getting 75p in every pound of the monthly mortgage payment in interest. As my friend said - " I don't own my house - I rent it from the Bank"
Posted by: wee folding bike on 12:15am Sun 13 Apr 08
It wouldn't be bad if some estate agents crashed and burned too. It is in their interest to have inflated prices as they are paid on a percentage... of someone else's asset.
Posted by: Vincent Mc Dee, Costa del Menie on 12:36am Sun 13 Apr 08
Wouldn't it be about time for the Scottish Government to start thinking of a legal measure, that will stop Banks provenly overlent, from being able to reposses those 3 last years first buyers with no other options?

I mean, if it can be proven that the Bank practices were very much like when the endowement mortages, when they were encouraging people to take bigger and bigger mortages that they could badly afford?
Posted by: Duns Scotus, The Borders on 12:47am Sun 13 Apr 08
In today's Sunday Times:
ONE of Gordon Brown’s key Downing Street advisers has an offshore mortgage on her £10m London home that could save her thousands of pounds in UK tax.

Jennifer Moses, Brown’s head of special projects, has a home loan on her Hampstead mansion taken out with Barclays in the Isle of Man. Since Moses also has nondomicile tax status, the arrangement could save her large sums in tax.

Nondoms are people with roots overseas who do not pay tax on money made and held outside Britain. By taking out a mortgage offshore, nondoms avoid bringing funds onshore, where they would be taxed.

The tax break was closed by Alistair Darling, the chancellor, in last month’s budget - but only for new offshore mortgages. Deals like Moses’s, which are already in place, will continue to reap the tax benefits.

Posted by: Gary McL, Edinburgh on 1:25am Sun 13 Apr 08
Fascinating article, and you can sense its wisdom. Tells it how it is, and ought to be. Thanks Iain.
Posted by: Supershug, Eaglesham on 2:22am Sun 13 Apr 08
Iain,

As usual, most of your words are very wise - and you are on unassailable moral high ground when you say that the level of house prices in relation to salaries is a disgrace.

However, you omit some key specifics on Scottish house prices. The 2.5% figure related to the UK generally. Scotland saw a slight increase.

That will almost certainly continue to be the case for some time. The slump - or more accurately rationalisation - must come but on a much less dramatic scale than (the general picture) south of the border.

The disparity between prices in most parts of Scotland and most of England should ensure that Scottish buyers and sellers see a less fearfully dramatic shift due to the salary:mortgage ratio you refer to.

Simply put, it will be some time before a young professional in e.g. London will be able to get a home there remotely comparable to that available to a similarly qualified individual in e.g. Glasgow. The resultant economic migration should insulate the Scottish market against the extreme shock that is so eagerly anticipated in the UK generally.

Secondly, given the relative stability in the Scottish market, unless I miss my guess (and anyone who offers more than a guess on property speculation is not your friend), the "credit crunch" could actually play into the hands of those selling relatively small properties.

Where local prices are comparatively stable but with financial institutions tending to err on the side of caution in such circumstances, based on a wider picture, many people could find themselves with a smaller available mortgage, leading to a relative proportionate shift downwards in the size of property available to them.

That could make the lower priced market even more competitive, especially for first-time buyers. For example, many people who might have expected a £120,000 mortgage will find themselves compromising living space because they may now only be offered £100,000.

Given that mortgages tend to be offered according to a rough factor of salary, a reduction from, say 4.5XSalary to 4xsalary mortgages could actually crowd the lower-end market, where much smaller percentage shifts in prices amount to less in cash terms.

For example, a first-time buyer earning £25,000p.a. might have been able to obtain a mortgage of £115,000 to £125,000. If that person’s mortgage provider suddenly says that they can only obtain a mortgage of £100,000, that would potentially equate to a 20% reduction in spending power while sale prices remain relatively stable. The chances are that this would only serve to increase the demand for smaller homes in the lower price sectors.

I would not, though, wish to be desperate to sell a home of, perhaps, £300,000 or more, needing to make a certain amount of cash.

There are certainly interesting times ahead but panic – or excessive confidence amongst buyers - in Scotland is premature, I fancy.

As stated earlier, this is sheer speculation.
Investments can go down as well as up. No responsibility is taken for any financial speculation above. Always consult an independent financial adviser, astrologer or elderly relative who always picks the Grand National winners just by looking at the names.
Posted by: Supershug, Eaglesham on 2:34am Sun 13 Apr 08
Martin wrote:
A lot of comments above along the lines of - as if anyone with a mortgage was a greedy lazy person.

Some people just wanted a roof over their heads without some private landlord telling them - no pets, no this , no that - get out in one month please....

People hurt will those first time buyers over the last 3 years who have bought at ( in hindsight) were inflated prices. Banks were the big gainers - getting 75p in every pound of the monthly mortgage payment in interest. As my friend said - " I don't own my house - I rent it from the Bank"
You make a very good point. Life isn't about to get much easier for first-time buyers soon - they are already finding it tougher to get a mortgage due to the banks being more "diligent". And, as you say, people who bought small properties in the last few years to "get on the ladder" will be under pressure, whereas those with four-to-five-bedroom homes can probably wait it out and hope for the best.

As an aside - not really intended to be a swipe at Iain, who I admire - I wonder if his home is valued at much less than (conservatively) £1/2million.
Posted by: mike morgan, gold coast australia on 2:42am Sun 13 Apr 08
great article and so true, a houseprice crash has to happen to restore equilibrium,yes the government has manipulated this horrendous mess. here in australia they are increasing interests rates in response to inflationary pressures puzzling why the BOE is not doing the same
Posted by: Supershug, Eaglesham on 3:02am Sun 13 Apr 08
mike morgan wrote:
great article and so true, a houseprice crash has to happen to restore equilibrium,yes the government has manipulated this horrendous mess. here in australia they are increasing interests rates in response to inflationary pressures puzzling why the BOE is not doing the same
Another excellent point, in my opinion.

The economy's short-term aims have been well-served by economic fluidity - falsifying a picture of economic health. As long as people have been spending the BoE and government didn't care about the consequences for the individual.

I always marvel at how interested government is in retail spending at Christmas - accepting that there is a crisis if it drops too far. In my view, the fact that people on £10k a year are not willing to max their credit cards to spend £2k at Christmas should be a good thing. That, however, represents an economic crisis, apparently - we should all feel under pressure to spend fortunes that we don't have.

With regard to the housing situation, the BoE doesn't have a specific remit to deal with that - its responsibilities are to the economy as a whole (Gordon Brown got some kind of medal for that idea, if I recall correctly).

Funny, though, and I would be delighted if Iain or anyone else would address the issue - amid all this credit crisis, when did anyone last pay attention to the value of the pound?

So, folks, is the credit crunch a really "good time to bury bad news" about the pound?

Posted by: Adrian, Beijing on 3:24am Sun 13 Apr 08
I think Gordon and the Labour government are partially to blame in this housing crisis. His failure to act to this crisis sooner will only compound this situation. I feel the banking system and the greed of bankers to irresponsibly lend to individuals who are not in a position to repay their loans is the major issue.

What I now find funny are the actions of Gordon by influencing the BoE to reduce interest rates by 0.25% to attempt to reduce the impact upon the public at this stage in the game. As if 0.25% reduction the base rate will have any impact at all. I think Gordon is very concerned about the housing market and the impact upon voters in the run up to the general election. If (and this is a massive if) the labour government are re-elected I’m sure that Gordon will be far less concerned and will allow the unavoidable correction to happen without a second thought.

Lets make no mistake that after the election Gordon will not care at all what happens to the housing market. I don’t see why if the government was not concerned with massive house price inflation, leaving house prices rise due to market forces as they have over the past 10 years, they should be concerned with reductions in prices now.

I have refrained from making a house purchase over the past 5-6 years in the knowledge that the market is way over valued preferring to save and wait for lower prices. I don’t think the government should be bailing out the fools who have overexposed themselves by taking out loans they can not repay.

This situation the UK is in now is a joke, some will be laughing and others will not!
Posted by: ed.c, toronto on 4:18am Sun 13 Apr 08
we sold up 5 years ago and moved to canada. we did make a packet in the london market. i would like to thank the tory and labour parties(same thing)for organising this insane greedfest. it was fun!
brown is not only to blame- blame banks, thatcher and especially blair. this is not over. things will get so much worse. it's amazing how greed can blind a nation. even stolen iraqi oil won't cover this tab!
Posted by: Scunnert, Travelling in Nihlon on 5:46am Sun 13 Apr 08
I am amazed that folks are still "buying' into the capitalist vision of continuous growth. I see a profound change coming down the turnpike that will make the bursting property bubble merely a symptom of a system in terminal decline. Time to wake up and get real.
Posted by: Mike, Edinburgh on 6:12am Sun 13 Apr 08
Salmond referred to this bogus economy way before the Election of our Scottish Government.

The New Labour Party of the Blair/Brown era were no more than shady little car salesmen who sold you a banger, but convinced you it was a Rolls. Someone always has to pay the ferryman at the end of the day, unfortunately Blair and Brown will not. They will leave government with very attractive pensions and will be taken care of by their rich international business masters, with consultancie work, directorships and a nice life travelling on the lecture circuit. Refer to Blairs bonuses since he got out, if you doubt the fact.

Blair and Brown were invited to attend a meeting of Bilderberg Group 16 months before their meteoric rise through the ranks of Labour. Balls, Mendelson and a few others were as well including George Robertson. My point is that Blair and Brown would never have been put up to high office if they had been normal rising stars within Labour. They were selected by the Financial Powers and their task was to ensure the final stages of the EU, and to encourage massive debts on the British People. Many will now see the EU Superstate as a better option as the tightening of fiscal policies gains pace. These people now own the UK Government. They can flex their muscles at any time, to put pressure on pollies, and will approve any new leaders, just like they will now secure the EU President role for Tony Blair. He is now the outright favourite to be in the role according to the Telegraph. Sarkozy and Merkel who are part of the same organisational framework will guarantee that their mate Tony will make up the New Power that is The European Economic Zone of the New World Order.

Some will mock me, but wait and see what is going to happen before the next general election, before you laugh too much. Remember this post, before you vote for something out of rage or desperation. Manipulation over the last twenty years, will now guarantee a not so great future for all.
Posted by: martin, dundee on 7:01am Sun 13 Apr 08
Imprudence and now instability.
G Brown will come under increased pessure to stand down before the next election as the economy begins to enter meltdown and people realise his policies as chancellor are to blame.When his government suffer loss after loss in the upcoming local elections in England MPs will begin to see that their seats are under threat.At this point I predict they will pressurise Brown to stand down.
Watch out for the Labour Party imploding.
Posted by: Don't have to worry, In a far off country of which you know little on 8:18am Sun 13 Apr 08
I sold up, jumped off the ladder and emigrated. I might come back when the time is right. Mass civil unrest might have occurred when the crash starts. Schadenfreude? Moi?
Posted by: Howard Banham, London on 9:22am Sun 13 Apr 08
As a frustrated home owner who can’t afford a bigger house, this is absolutely the best article I have ever read on the whole house price madness thing, spot on. You should pin a copy to Brown+Darling's forehead.
Posted by: Dirty Leftie, Glasgow on 9:58am Sun 13 Apr 08
Another great article, Iain.

As usual, what you write has more truth and sense than all the vacuous NuLab outpouring of lies, bilge and distortions of the last decade+.

This government is dead in the water and the sooner Broon goes the better - it's like 1979 all over again. The NuLab backbenchers are now beginning to get twitchy as they see their seats going down the pan so I expect more dissension in the ranks if only out of careerist self-interest.

And,as usual, fcuk the voting fodder.

Makes you proud, eh?
Posted by: Hamish McGruntled, With A Republican Streak on 10:04am Sun 13 Apr 08
Well said Iain. It's ALWAYS been nonsense that house prices can rise in perpetuity.Without correction, we'd have the situation where the owner of a dog kennel in London could sell up and buy Perthshire and still have change for a yacht or two.
Utterly mad....and sorry to say, the pain is comin' yet for a' that. We've a' been mugs !!
Posted by: seaweasel, County Armagh on 10:20am Sun 13 Apr 08
A very good article, as usual, from Iain Macwhirter, and one that quite rightly encapsulates the danger that Gordon Brown has put the economy in.

Iain's column is especially relevant to me this week as my fiance and I are members of that unfortunate group that are trying to get on the housing ladder (although it's more snake than ladder at the moment). We recently moved to Northern Ireland where the situation is especially acute as for years houses were very undervalued, and all of a sudden prices mushroomed. Of course, new builds and the development of the NI economy are a good thing, however it will be impossible for us to buy a house until the housing market reaches some degree of normalcy (and wages move into line with the rest of the UK - on average employees in NI still earn 20% less).

There was a glimmer of hope recently when we found out about a government co-ownership scheme, which would have allowed us to buy at least part of a house and increase our ownership as our careers progressed however, like many schemes from the New Labour government, it was all talk. The website in question featured a statement from a minister in February bragging about aiding first time buyers, and an update in March explaining that the scheme had run out of money.

Of course, a few people have made points regarding the UK's obsession with owning property and indeed many European countries may have the right idea with high percentages of people renting. This however is perhaps similar to the issue of public transport. Sure, nobody drives in Amsterdam but the Netherlands actually has a decent public transport system. Maybe if people in the UK had access to long-term, secure leases then the credit crunch wouldn't be such a problem.
Posted by: Cynicus on 10:30am Sun 13 Apr 08
. In my view, the fact that people on £10k a year are not willing to max their credit cards to spend £2k at Christmas should be a good thing. That, however, represents an economic crisis, apparently - we should all feel under pressure to spend fortunes that we don't have.
-Supershug, Eaglesham on 3:02am today

And to "release eaquity" from our price-inflated properties in order so to do? Why? It's called the service economy and that's where the jobs are. Napoleon was ahead of his time when he described England as a nation of shopkeepers.
Posted by: trevor fry, derby on 10:33am Sun 13 Apr 08
ive been saying what youve been saying for the last ten years. i run a business <car sales> and have seen countless people spend credit card loans on cars, and then know that they will convert the loan into a bolt on mortgage. but tell me this, how are we as a nation earning the real wealth to pay for all this spending on imported goods through false property prices, instead of exporting manufactured goods as in the days of our parents. we need to earn what we spend as a nation and think of the future and last but not least stick to some basic rules instead of being sold by showbiz politians. keep up the good work
Posted by: Ian Mills, Surrey on 10:45am Sun 13 Apr 08
"I will not allow house prices to get out of control and put at risk the sustainability of the recovery ."

Gordon Brown, 1997 Budget Statement.

http://www.order-ord
er.com/2007/08/gordo
n-and-house-prices.h
tml
Posted by: Confiteor on 10:47am Sun 13 Apr 08
Superb article. It is shameful that the media at large played along with the fantasy economics for so long. And they wonder why young people won't buy a newspaper...
Posted by: The Wise One, Glasgow on 10:48am Sun 13 Apr 08
Buy to let mortgages should never have been allowed. All this did was allow individuals, whose current property was increasing in value through no effort on their part, take out loans based on this security. This prevented first time buyers entering the market as they could not raise the funding and had no security.

BTL owners then sat back and wormed in the money by charging over the top rentals for
these properties. How often have you heard these people bragging about their property folio, worth tens of millions (on paper).

I hope this lot get their fingers bitten now.
House prices come down and perhaps their tenants wil be able to buy their own house.

Perhaps what we need is a ban on building private houses altogether and ensuring any houses built in the next ten years are only for rent through government schemes which will make homes affordable and also reduce the demand for buying houses.
Posted by: subrosa on 11:01am Sun 13 Apr 08
If anyone wants to take part in Yougov polls/surveys then you can register online:

http://my.yougov.com


Posted by: Findlay, Lanark on 11:33am Sun 13 Apr 08
Owner occupiers do not directly benefit from rises in the value of their property. To blame them is therefore not only unfair but also unrealistic. Wealth tied up is subject to the ups and downs of the market. If he wants to help, Tomb tabard should tell BOE to cut the bank rate by another 2% and ensure that the lenders pass on at least 1.5% to borrowers to help people keep their houses. Avoiding evictions is more important that chasing a fictitious inflation rate that will be swallowed by the increased prices of imports arising from the pound dropping from 1.5EUR to 1.0EUR or lower.
Posted by: jomellon, Lodève, France on 12:01pm Sun 13 Apr 08
MacWhirter hits the nail on the head again...

UK property prices are a pure bubble, based on speculation and not on either the intrinsic worth or the ability to pay.

Generally UK property consists of low quality buildings: badly insulating and slightly warped windows, cardboard doors, no cellar, no regulation of water pressure, flakey heating, and so on.

The proud owners were convinced that they had a sophisticated life style because of the silly price.

Germans who have paid a fraction of the price for their high quality dwellings are astonished on being introduced to the delights of British housing.
Posted by: bob, Edinburgh on 12:09pm Sun 13 Apr 08
Excellent article

My reading of the situation is that the majority of voters(by that I mean those with a vested interest in doing so) and main political parties have been in on this to meet their own narrow ends - voters make money for doing very little - political parties get elected on the back of this.

Posted by: Clare, Lanarkshire on 12:45pm Sun 13 Apr 08
Martin wrote:
A lot of comments above along the lines of - as if anyone with a mortgage was a greedy lazy person. Some people just wanted a roof over their heads without some private landlord telling them - no pets, no this , no that - get out in one month please.... People hurt will those first time buyers over the last 3 years who have bought at ( in hindsight) were inflated prices. Banks were the big gainers - getting 75p in every pound of the monthly mortgage payment in interest. As my friend said - " I don't own my house - I rent it from the Bank"
Very well said Martin. The renting option is one which is easy to recommend but difficult to do any more anyway. The building of housing for rent stopped many years ago and the proceeds of sales from former Council properties went straight to the Treasury not to the Councils selling. Furthermore the debts attached to those properties weren't cancelled.

The biggest scam with the the sale of Council houses was the many sold to sons and daughters of tenants while a parent was still alive as an investment later. That should never have been allowed to happen and if such a purchaser intended to use the property as an investment at a later date the discount given at the time of purchase should have been clawed back.

The reduction in the availability of rented accommodation led to the Buy to Let market taking off which, let's face it, isn't the answer either. These properties are mortgaged and consequently rents are quite high so who can blame people for wanting to buy themselves? Also, BTL properties will usually have a clause (from the Lender who funded the original purchase) that the property is rented under an Assured Short Tenancy agreement. That means they can't be long term lets. So tenants have no real rights. Its not good is it?

The other thing happening just now is that companies are springing up offering to buy homes from those struggling with mortgage payments with the option of "renting" back. (This is aimed at those threatened with re-possession. Its attractive to people in that situation obviously.) The downside to it is, and I'm not sure people are aware of it, they will have NO rights under the letting arrangement. That property will belong to the Lender and if the new owner decides to sell up, or not make mortgage payments then the tenants can't do anything about it. The same Assured Short Tenancy agreement will also apply. So a lot of people are running for escape routes and this particular one might appear like a way out but in fact will possibly lead to those using it to the same result - homelessness.
Posted by: Buckpool Loon, Cheshire on 12:51pm Sun 13 Apr 08
Another concise article Macwhirter.

I disagree with your assesment of the true inflation rate at around 4%. I would see it's been higher than that for some time, as indicated by millions now being seen as an insignificant amounts and billions being the new confetti attached to every significant project or government expenditure.

In reality all that has happened is the poor and middle classes have funded the high inflation of the rich through stealth taxes and false inflation figures while being fobbed off through the false hypes in the value of their properties.

I feel sorry for the people who will be burned by this and to mitigate their pain, their lenders should be prevented from taking action on repossessions, subject to a court action on irresponsible lending.

A crash does nobody any good, other than the few who can cash in on it. A controlled revalueing, allowing both lenders and mortgagors the time and oppurtunity to come to terms with the best solution possible is not only sensible it's also moral.
Posted by: Aldo, Glasgow on 1:04pm Sun 13 Apr 08
Do me a favour... Brilliant article? Pass the sick bag.

Jack and Jill MacSmug (with low debt to earnings) smugly pat one another on the back for being so clever and delight in the idea that who had no option but to borrow to the hilt to get on the ladder are "taught a lesson".

Jack sits rubbing his hands, elated that having been sucked into an unustainable market, millions contemplate negative equity, or as he might put it "will have their aspirations corrected".

The point which J&J choose to ignore whilst castigating those who will feel the effects of the "correction" is that the vast majority havent, and never expected to, make money. They saw any equity in their home as a "token", since the rest of the market had risen proportionately.

Even the launguage - "correction" - it's quasi-facist to stimulate exactly the response it got!Perhaps there should also be a correction "facility" set up. We should send all those who aspired to home-own there immediately, along with the politicians who responded to this aspiration. They must understand that politicians role is to decide what's good for the country and they should under no circumstances response to public opinion just to keep the country happy. Furthermore those members of the public who held these aspirations must learn now not to hold ideas above their station.
Posted by: alanski, Edinburgh on 1:51pm Sun 13 Apr 08
Well done Iain, right on the button. I've been saying stuff like this for years - the housing market is built on greed and rampant materialism. Those who've exploited this deserve everything they get - they are irresponsible fools. As for Gordon Brown and his cronies... they are clowns and are heading for obscurity. Bring it on!
Posted by: George King, Wamphray, Scotland. on 2:01pm Sun 13 Apr 08
Great article.
Posted by: Stevie, Glasgow on 2:48pm Sun 13 Apr 08
"Falling house prices are a good thing" Nonsense!!,For people who have just bought a house and will be tied into it for years this is a stupid statement to make .
"Most home owners sitting on large gains have the decency to be embarrassed about it" ****!! for as said ,these are paper gains and are meaningless untill the property is sold.As for being embarrassed by the (on paper)extra wealth,I don't think so!.
What is now required ,here in Scotland, is a properly regulated program, of quality affordable rented housing ,It works well in Germany where both the landlord and tenant have to stick to strict rules on maintenance and respect for their neighbour.
As one poster said the other day ,why pay £1000 a month mortgage if you could rent a decent home for £400.
I look out my window to the monstrosity that is "Glasgow Harbour" the builders were supposed to provide "affordable housing " where is it?? why haven't they been called to task??.
The only people who will suffer from a housing crash, is the buyers of the last five years. The big builders will not allow the bottom line to fall ,they are sitting on huge land banks that Labour, have made easy for them to get.



Posted by: Derry, Glasgow on 3:36pm Sun 13 Apr 08
Block upon block of new build luxury* apartments have been built in Glasgow over the last 10 years. What were the council planning department thinking? Where are the homes that people want to live in?

*These days, the capability to have a sh1t 6ft from your pillow.
Posted by: mike, Partick on 3:39pm Sun 13 Apr 08
As someone who rents and is struggling to see how I can enter the housing market (even with a higher than average income) this aricle is a breath of fresh air.

As McWhirter says, "...it is at moments like this that you realise that the country is being governed by fools, by people who behave in a contradictory and irrational manner."
Posted by: gizmo, Scotland on 5:19pm Sun 13 Apr 08
Those who are moaning - grow up and open your eyes. The situation is ridiculous and prices are immoral. Things have to get worse before they get better and there cannot be balance, no matter what the chancellor does, with the current house price: wages ratio. I've been monitoring the situation for five years and it's beyond a joke. And it's not just house prices... yob culture, British people taxed to the high heavens, the long working hours culture.. no wonder all the skilled people are leaving the country (as I will be very soon - Oz looks to follow in our footsteps regarding housing, America is a mess... Germany looks good). And it's not just the government to blame. It is the greedy public. Joe public; you've got to start to worry when taxi drivers start making thousands from buy-to-let..

Money drives the nation, but it's also made us miserable. Should it be our driving force? Do we simply need better regulations? Can we ever trust any sort of government again? Radical changes, as radical as it may sound, need to be thought of, as the current state of many of the big countries are an absolute disgrace.

I graduated a while ago and am on very good money, but I've found it a struggle to buy in Edinburgh, where prices are not half as bad as in London. I decided not to buy and urge other first-timers not to go through with it, either... sit tight and rent for several (4+) years and reap your rewards later when prices fall by at least 30%. But DON'T pay too much and let this same thing happen all over again. Don't sell your life away and buy at this moment in time, it would be the worst thing you could ever do. Several of my friends will be in £170k+ debt.. which is a disgrace in itself, let's face it.

The signs have been here for years now, and anybody that has ignored them and bought a home in the last 5 years will feel the worst of what is to come. Yes, renting is essentially wasting money away, I understand.. but I'd rather waste a couple grand rather than be a fraction of a million pounds in debt, with a large portion of that being negative equity.

Regarding Edinburgh prices. No, there hasn't been much fall... but the increases have been slowing, and I hope we wont be cushioned from the blow, as we definitely also need a shake-up. Rent has shot up recently and everything is going to pot. I've seen shoeboxes with no duoble glazing etc going for £180k+. Scandalous. But now, the market is stagnating and properties have been lying on ESPC for months on end, changing to fixed price a lower and lower values. I do believe this is going to be big. And if you've bought recently, please don't spout drivel with an acid-tongue. Think it through and think of what's best for everybody; use your brain. Do you want prices to be kept at this same level when your kids come to try and buy a place?

The UK... what a laughing stock.
Posted by: gizmo, Edinburgh on 5:29pm Sun 13 Apr 08
Regarding the comment about fools running our country... I couldn't agree more. I'll say it again: I couldn't agree more.

I simply can't believe the state of things... I have ties to some big names regarding a lot of things: financial markets in London, science and the lack of funding, climate change etc etc... and it's shocking to hear from the pros and then hear what government are doing. They just can't run the country, and I think they partly don't have the brains for it, either.

And it's not just the government. The public are to blame, also. A more firm hand is needed (not being allowed to say kids 'fail' exams comes to mind) and more active participation and protest from the public. Don't just sit back and make comments on the internet. I appreciate this could also be a potential nightmare with the views held by some of the not-so-bright, but in general I stand by what I say. I don't think Labour will be in power for a long time after this...! And Brown... he's known what's been happening for ages. He sold our gold for a low price ages back and has set us up for this in the worst way possible, partly by not saving money when the economy was 'strong,' leaving us nothing (much) to fall back on when a recession hits.
Posted by: Strathturret, Montrose on 5:39pm Sun 13 Apr 08
Iain,

Yes a good article and I agree with much.

I think Brown's decision to make BoE independent and give it only one job to keep inflation in line and only one type of inflation has now been shown to have limitations. Ditto Greenspan who retired before the manure hit the fan. And the FSA did not manage to control Northern Rock, so Brown dismantled a model that had worked for 150 years and it has taken 10 years for it to unravel. As you now say we are reducing rates at behest of politicians, which we were supposed to have stopped doing. How independent the BoE is when the governor is appointed by PM and presumable expects his gong from PM on retirement?

Yes, I can't understand how we aim to cure our ills by reducing interest rates when it was low rates that got us into this mess. Reducing rates will make the £ weaker, which tells the truth about our much fabled economic strength.

A 20-30% reduction in house prices should help as you say. I feel sorry for anyone who bought in last five years or so but the warning signs were there to see. The huge number of TV programmes alone on property should have been a warning.
Posted by: LenH, Los Angeles, California, USA140-422 on 6:22pm Sun 13 Apr 08
Excellent article! The true problem, however, is that massive, unadmitted inflation has been occurring due largely to the creation of money through debt by the commercial finance sector. This inflation has been made visible in the increasing profits of these concerns and the huge rises in salaries and benefits of senior employees in particular. At the same time the wages and salaries of the rest of the community have stagnated.

Since the inflation of the currency is almost impossible to reverse, the obvious solution to future problems of our children is to have a massive redistribution