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August 22, 2008 Est 1999 Scotland's award-winning independent newspaper
Numbers game
Martin O’Neill has cultivated the image of a winner but the statistics suggest otherwise

ACHORUS OF boos rose from the stands at the half-time whistle of Aston Villa's match with Derby County last week. The score was deadlocked and, rather than raising their game, Villa seemed to have dropped it to the level of their relegation-bound opponents.

They scored twice in the second half to win the game 2-0 and, afterwards, Martin O'Neill said all the right things. "If they want to boo, they have every right," he said. "They're the ones paying to watch the game, they are entitled to have their voices heard."

While other managers would have gloated about the fact that they came away with three points (as if that was some kind of proof that the critics were wrong) or criticised that portion of the supporters for "not getting behind the team", O'Neill is far more intelligent than that. He recognised the booing, internalised it and turned it to his - and his club's advantage - earning a whole lot of sympathy along the way.

With Aston Villa in mid-table and the ascendancy of Mark Hughes, O'Neill is no longer automatically hailed as a successor to Sir Alex Ferguson at Old Trafford and even the stream of Brian Clough comparisons has abated a bit.

Yet he remains perhaps the most respected British manager not named Alex and that is probably more down to his handling of the press, playing squad and supporters than his results on the pitch.

Because when you look at the numbers, O'Neill is anything but a rip-roaring success at Villa Park. True, his record in terms of wins, draws and losses (he has won three more games than he has drawn) is better than his two immediate predecessors, David O'Leary and Graham Taylor (who was in his second stint).

But, in terms of points per game, O'Neill's 1.40, places him squarely behind John Gregory (1.66), Brian Little (1.52), Ron Atkinson (1.80) and Taylor's first period in charge (1.62).

Of the eight most recent full-time managerial spells at the club, O'Neill is fifth best. Perhaps more worryingly, his record in his first fifty five games in charge - 19 wins, 20 draws and 16 defeats - is actually worse during the first fifty-five games of David O'Leary's reign. The much ridiculed (by some) Irishman notched 23 wins, 16 draws and 16 losses before the wheels fell off.

With those numbers, it's a good thing that O'Neill is so adept at emanating a winner's image, mostly because it buys him time. And that's crucial in a side where nearly half the likely starting XI - Scott Carson, Nigel Reo-Coker, Ashley Young, Gabriel Agbonlahor and Luke Moore - is aged twenty-three or younger.

Tactically, there have been two hallmarks to the O'Neill regime at Villa Park. The first has been in defence. O'Neill has emphasised size and physical strength above all. His two central defenders - Zat Knight and Martin Laursen - average nearly 6'4" in height (shades of the Stan Varga-Bobo Balde combinations at Celtic Park).

Both his full-backs are primarily defensive. Olef Mellberg - who at 6'1" is nicknamed the man mountain for his bulk as much as his height - is a recycled central defender, Wilfrid Bouma is equally muscular and also had long spells in central defence throughout his career.

Where brawn is privileged in the rearguard, pace, youth and energy are the hallmarks up front with Young, Agbonlahor and Moore. This makes Villa tough away from home (where they have lost just once this season) and against bigger opponents who have the bulk of possession (witness their 2-0 win over Chelsea this season).

O'Neill, of course, also knows how to mix it up by using his big target man John Carew, who is only just returning from injury and could feature this afternoon against Birmingham City.

Whether the O'Neill formula will work its magic again depends on two factors: expectations and execution.

The first is just how the club's owner, Randy Lerner chooses to define success. If it's qualifying for UEFA Cup every year and reaching the odd domestic cup semi-final, then it's attainable. Zat Knight, ever the O'Neill loyalist and a lifelong Villa fan, is a believer.

"Everyone at the club is talking about Europe and I think that's realistic if we can keep our players fit and add to the squad in January," he says.

"If you look at the players we have brought in I think they're a bit of a steal, with the likes of Ashley Young now in the England squad."

Whether Young is indeed a bit of a steal remains to be seen. He cost £9.6m, not exactly chump change. The same can be said of Reo-Coker at £7.5m. Both are young players who may - or may not - end up justifying their fee.

The combined £7.5m spent on Knight himself and Marlon Harewood, two players who - at 27 and 28 respectively - are unlikely to turn into Rio Ferdinand and Wayne Rooney (or even Matthew Upson and Emile Heskey) continues to raise a few eyebrows.

As did O'Neill's insistence on bringing in Celtic wash-outs like Didier Agathe and Chris Sutton last season. (Fortunately there is no indication that he plans on acquiring Bobo Balde at this stage).

But if Lerner's expectation is that O'Neill will build a Villa side capable of breaking into the top four, the signs don't look so promising. And this is where he will have to show his prowess in the transfer market.

Securing goalkeeper Carson is an excellent first step. Liverpool revealed that Villa had taken up the option to buy him for £10m. It's a shrewd move, not least because there is little chance the big four will come along and snatch him away since all either have youngish goalkeepers (Pepe Reina at Liverpool, Petr Cech at Chelsea) or highly touted youngsters waiting in the wings (Ben Foster at Manchester United, Lukasz Fabianski at Arsenal).

Mellberg, whose can leave on a free transfer in June, needs to be sorted out, whether in terms of resigning him or finding a replacement. Given O'Neill's propensity for stockpiling centre-halves (he has two previously highly regarded ones in Curtis Davies and Gary Cahill sitting on the bench) he could turn one of them into a rightback.

The priority however probably ought to be up front. Carew is 28 and injury-prone, just like Moore. Neither is particularly prolific: the Norwegian has four goals in seventeen appearances for Villa, Moore fifteen in ninety-three.

That has been a long-standing problem at Villa Park. They haven't had a striker capable of hitting double figures in the league since 2003-04, when Juan Pablo Angel notched sixteen goals. That was also the only time a Villa striker scored as many as fifteen league goals in the past decade.

Of course, to paraphrase the Rolling Stones (a favourite of Gregory, one of his predecessors), time is on O'Neill's side. The kids will, presumably, continue to improve. And his reputation and PR skills ensure that the media and the fans will be patient.

He may never deliver a spot in the Champions League, but the way things are going, there is a good chance he will last at least until the next World Cup, which would make him the longest-serving Villa manager in the past twenty-five years. Which is better than nothing.

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Posted by: jo, glasgow on 12:33am Sun 11 Nov 07
is it oneils celtic connection that has made him a victim to this pretty pointless article...the points stat isnt even remotely interesting...even more meaningless than celtics run of away games without conceeding a goal..by the way did you know that celtic have won as many cl group games in 15 home games than rangers have won in their total 46 cl group games...
Posted by: Peter, manchester on 3:06am Sun 11 Nov 07
Poor Gab you just cant get over the fact that Martin made you look like the complete moron that you are,when he guided Celtic to the championship.Remembe

r that one Gab?the one where you said Advocaat and your beloved Rangers would walk it,oh how we laughed.

How sad that you feel you have to belittle Martin in order to gain some warped sense of revenge because you got it so wrong in 2,000.

As for Martin,he probably doesnt even know or care who you are.
Posted by: Peter, Manchester on 3:17am Sun 11 Nov 07
Gab look what I found lol.

What a tipster you are,and Celtic fans are still laughing about this utterly embarrassing claptrap to this day lol.

Rangers look unstoppable in new Scottish season gabriel marcotti


You can pencil in Glasgow Rangers to win its twelfth title in thirteen years.

Celtic (or anybody else in Scotland) has about as much chance of breaking Rangers' hegemony as Pamela Anderson does of winning an Academy Award.

Perhaps more than any other season in recent history, this one looks like a no-brainer.

After winning the title with a record margin, Rangers addressed its needs with clinical precision.

In come Scottish international Paul Ritchie and Dutchmen Fernando Ricksen (perhaps the only professional named for an ABBA song) and Bert Konterman to strengthen the league's stingiest defense, while Kenny Miller and Allan Johnston provide even more options down the flanks.

Throw in the fact that Dick Advocaat remains one of the sharpest tactical minds around and, simply put, it looks like a total mismatch.

Celtic fans may point to the fact that their club played most of last season without star striker Henrik Larsson, who is now back from injury.

True, but then Rangers also spent most of the year without its star centerforward, Michael Mols, who is also on the way back.

Celtic is simply light years behind Rangers in terms of quality.

Indeed, apart from Larsson and possibly midfielder Paul Lambert, it's hard to see any Celtic players cracking Rangers' starting eleven.

Which means that new boss Martin O'Neill is in for a bumpy ride.

He can draw strength from the fact that doing worse than his predecessor, John Barnes, will be virtually impossible, but, beyond that, there is little to cheer at Celtic Park.

Top scorer Mark Viduka is gone and O'Neillšs choice to replace him, former Chelsea dud Chris Sutton (hardly a snip at US $10 million) raised more than a few eyebrows.

O'Neill did very well at Leicester City, but he may find that making a mediocre team respectable is far easier than turning a respectable team into a champion.

Indeed, if Celtic isn't careful, even the runner-up spot could be far from a foregone conclusion with clubs like Hearts and Hibernian ready to step in if the "Bhoys" falter.

At least some degree of novelty should come from the new league format. Clubs will face each other three times before breaking off into two separate six-team mini-leagues some time in March. They will then play each of the other teams in their mini-league once.

Beyond the obvious flaw that some clubs will inevitably play more home games than others, the Scottish League's experiment could all be rendered moot if, as some expect, Rangers have locked up the title by March.

Still, if record goal totals and utter domination are your cup of tea, it might be fun to watch.



Aye Gabriel it was indeed fun to watch
Posted by: Bryce Curdy, Lanarkshire on 7:56am Sun 11 Nov 07
What a pointless article. O'Neill is making steady if unspectacular progess at Villa. A UEFA Cup spot would be a magnificent achievement. Top four would require a miracle.
Posted by: aLBA, Lennoxtown on 9:10am Sun 11 Nov 07
O'Neill was over-rated in Scotland, and is being found out at Villa. For all the talk when he left Scotland of bigger and better things he was always going to end up at a mid table side. He is a good man manager who gets workmanlike players to play above their level. He is suited to Aston Villa, Charlton etc etc.

Strachan is already looking a better manager than O'nEILL.
Posted by: nil, London on 9:26am Sun 11 Nov 07
O'Neill hasn't been nearly as successful as he was expected to be at Villa- the stats back that up. Compare his job to Redknapp (appointed only 4 months before O'Neill) at Pompey and you can see that O'Neill's perhaps not all he's made out to be. He'll be nowhere near the big jobs any time soon with that form.
Posted by: tony, Birmingham on 9:46am Sun 11 Nov 07
As above , O'neill is being found out, yes he won trophies in Scotland but lets face it as a manager of one of the OF teams he really should be.Alex Mcleish actually more trophies in a shorter period than O'neil did, yes,bold I am afraid all this touting for the Man Utd job , the England job etc, has made a myth out of MON.
Posted by: Bryce Curdy, Lanarkshire on 9:54am Sun 11 Nov 07
He improved their league position last year and has done so again this season to date. 9th is steady if unspectacular. I agree that Redknapp is underrated.
Posted by: jo, glasgow on 10:24am Sun 11 Nov 07
thats even funnier i didnt notice who wrote the article....gabs preview of oneils first season rem,ains a classic
Posted by: peter Doran, Droitwich on 10:55am Sun 11 Nov 07
My first impression of this article was-"Wot rot".The second view was that I had read yet another cut and paste article which is a format used
by some journalists to dig at anyone or any thing connected to Celtic in any way.
All I would ask of this scribe is give us a break and change the record.
Posted by: Hampden57, Calton on 11:17am Sun 11 Nov 07
Forget about thse stats, the real statistic behind articles like this is the SIXTEEN Old Firm wins in 5 short years that O'Neill had over Rangers. That is why they hate O'Neill, and why they'll regularly come out with patronising rubbish about how good Tommy Burns Celtic side was (a team that was very poor in the OF games)

Rangers sides, and their fans in the media, were terrified of Celtic during O'Neill's time in charge, because they knew Celtic guaranteed at least 3 wins a season against rangers (5 wins in 2003-4) Bile and bitterness at the memory of all those second prizes is what motivates tripe like this article.

Re O'Neill at Villa, it is much more difficult in the English Premiership--ask Wattie Smith who bounced around the depths of the bottom 5 for most of his spell at Everton, before making way for a better manager in Moyes--but O'Neill is making progress this season and will easily eclipse the points totals accrued by the likes of O'Leary, Gregory and the other recent manangers mentioned here.
Posted by: A. McBride, Southampton on 11:35am Sun 11 Nov 07
O`Neill probably is over rated, but, he awoke the sleeping giant, which was what was required of him at the time.
He has a much tougher job now, Villa despite what their fans think, are not a sleepng giant.
Regular top five finishes are but a pipedream for clubs like Villa, while Arsenal, Chelsea (while they have a Sugardaddy), Liverpool and Man U are all expanding nationally and internationally, Villa have to compete with better equipped second tier teams, like Tottenham and Everton, while Man City, Blacburn and Portsmouth are better managed.
"Nil" and "Bryce Curdy" are correct about Redknapp. He always srrounds himself with good coaches i.e. Jim Smith, and latterly Tony Adams and Joe Jordan. Pompey are now growing into a natural Premiership team, and have a blueprint in place for improvement and expansion.
Martin O`Neill has a job on his hands, as he will have to develope a good youth system, as well as shrewdness in the player market.
Posted by: Chris, cumbernauld on 11:49am Sun 11 Nov 07
O'Neill - the most over hyped manager in the history of British football. Chased out of Scotland by a resourceful Alex McLeish and now suffering a worse run of results than David O'Leary.
Posted by: Barcalator, vomiting in Barcelona on 11:50am Sun 11 Nov 07
Gabby you really need to stop listening to that loyalist bint that you are porking,she has you hating everything Celtic like herself.

Be a man and wear the trousers idiot.
Posted by: al farquar, London on 11:56am Sun 11 Nov 07
What a pity that Celtic fans feel the need to get involved in an article that relates to Villa. These guys think they are an expert on football worldwide. I think this is a good sttus of where o'neill is in terms of the villa job. Personally don't think he will do much better or worse than those that have went before him. For Villa to succeed, they need a top notch manager which o'neill is not (winning less than 50% of tropies available to you in a league dominated by 2 teams does not make you a good manager - just look at souness) and some serious investment. the sums spent will only allow them to stand still....
Posted by: big rabby, Nottingham on 2:06pm Sun 11 Nov 07
I cant beleive it,Marcotti has waited over 7 years to get this chance to belittle Martin O'Neill.All because of his career low article in 2'000 when he basically told Martin he would be better just handing the title to Rangers on a plate.

The fact that Martin made a complete clown out of him by ramming his patronising rambling senseless article back down his throat is what drives this poor attempt at getting even.

You're a sad man Marcotti.
Posted by: Steven on 2:27pm Sun 11 Nov 07
big rabby wrote:
I cant beleive it,Marcotti has waited over 7 years to get this chance to belittle Martin O'Neill.All because of his career low article in 2'000 when he basically told Martin he would be better just handing the title to Rangers on a plate. The fact that Martin made a complete clown out of him by ramming his patronising rambling senseless article back down his throat is what drives this poor attempt at getting even. You're a sad man Marcotti.
So Marcotti shouldn't write about O'Neill again? Let's treat the article on its merits rather than trying to see ulterior motives everywhere. O'Neill has not done a great job at Villa, so far. The jury's still out imho - but he has a lot still to do if he's to prove he's a really top-drawer Premiership manager.
Posted by: S Kohli, Londonderry on 3:34pm Sun 11 Nov 07
I hope you know a good Glazier, Gabriele. Annoying the fans of St Martin often leads to a broken window or 2.
Posted by: Big John Knox, Londonderry on 3:35pm Sun 11 Nov 07
Big Eck chased wee mon out of Scottish football, who can ever forget Helicoptor Sunday!

WATP!
Posted by: Barcalator, Barcelona on 3:50pm Sun 11 Nov 07
S Kohli wrote:
I hope you know a good Glazier, Gabriele. Annoying the fans of St Martin often leads to a broken window or 2.
Could be worse Gab,you could be threatened with physical attack if you ever had the balls to criticise your girlfriends fave team.



Or even have your street left like a tramps hovel,with rubbish and vomit all over the place.

Graham Speirs a rangers fan told the truth and has been threatened and vilified ever since.
Posted by: S Kohli, Londonderry on 3:56pm Sun 11 Nov 07
Barcalator wrote:
S Kohli wrote: I hope you know a good Glazier, Gabriele. Annoying the fans of St Martin often leads to a broken window or 2.
Could be worse Gab,you could be threatened with physical attack if you ever had the balls to criticise your girlfriends fave team. Or even have your street left like a tramps hovel,with rubbish and vomit all over the place. Graham Speirs a rangers fan told the truth and has been threatened and vilified ever since.
And you believe everything he says? You really must be deluded then.

Of course there was not one scap of paper in Suvul when the great unwashed left? All 200000000 of them? Maybe no paper, but a few arrests, a couple of stabbings, planes diverted etc. etc.?
Posted by: Bryce Curdy, Lanarkshire on 4:04pm Sun 11 Nov 07
Eigth after today's match with 21 points from 12 games. Pretty decent when 5th is probably the most realistic aspiration.
Posted by: Barcalator, dropping rubbish in Barcelona on 4:05pm Sun 11 Nov 07
S Kohli wrote:
Barcalator wrote:
S Kohli wrote: I hope you know a good Glazier, Gabriele. Annoying the fans of St Martin often leads to a broken window or 2.
Could be worse Gab,you could be threatened with physical attack if you ever had the balls to criticise your girlfriends fave team. Or even have your street left like a tramps hovel,with rubbish and vomit all over the place. Graham Speirs a rangers fan told the truth and has been threatened and vilified ever since.
And you believe everything he says? You really must be deluded then.

Of course there was not one scap of paper in Suvul when the great unwashed left? All 200000000 of them? Maybe no paper, but a few arrests, a couple of stabbings, planes diverted etc. etc.?
Graham is that rarest of animals an honest rangers fan.Shame he cant just give his opinion without threats of violence,so much for freedom of speech.

What was it the Spanish newspapers said about the rangers fans,oh yes ARMY OF WALKING ****,they know them so well.

One can see why,with the kwintasenshul Britishers urinating on war memorials,how very dignified.

Anyway I hear the Barcalator is up to 10 mullion.
Posted by: Derek, Glasgow on 6:01pm Sun 11 Nov 07
Some Celtic fans seem to live for making accusations against Rangers fans. It is both sad and tedious.

The article is about Martin O'Neill at Villa, Good win for him today over Birmingham but a lot of work still to be done.
Posted by: jo, glasgow on 8:30pm Sun 11 Nov 07
journalists are parasites all..spiers included..but this is a sad little article..and just what is an article about an english club aston villa doing in a scottish sunday newspaper if part of its remit is to wind up us celtic fans ..but as the authors classic 2000 article showsx his opinions are meaningless
Posted by: tommy, west lothian on 9:18pm Sun 11 Nov 07
O'Neills success was remarkable at Celtic when you read Gabs 2000 article - you see how he turned celtic around. given no chance and won treble in 1st season winning league before the split winning league by 15 points in 2001 18 points in 2002 and 17 points in 2004. over the 5 year period celtic gained 49 points more than rangers and simply dominated old firm games at one point i think celtic won 7 OF games in a row certainly doing the whitewash in 03/04 winning 5 out of 5 - mon went to ibrox every season and won there. the statement that mcleish chased him out of scotland is an absolute joke. mcleish had 2 real seasons of hell one against MON (03/04)whitewashed and a dot on the horizon. one against strachan (05/06) where his season was over by october finishing 3rd. MON was a complete success at celtic. yes he should have won 5 in a row came extremely close to it and if you are critical you could say he took his eye off the ball in 2003 (with seville) and in 05 (where his mind was on his wifes illness) but in his time at celtic undoubtedly he was an overwhelming success. he put celtic back on the map in europe and made us scotlands no 1 club again. well done MON.
Posted by: steve, moray on 7:34pm Mon 12 Nov 07
the agenda of the scottish media never ceases to amaze me. during the niar years did we ever hear of walter smith being touted for the big jobs in england ? laudrup, gascoine, goram, klos all top top players were never linked with moves back down south. compare and contrast with o'neill, larsson, strachan, boruc, naka & now brown.

as a way of de-stabilising cellick and her fans the laptop loyal will always link our top performers with moves away especially prior to a big game or rangers clash.

MON in particular had the scottish media sussed and whilst I think wgs is doing a better long term job, I think mon had had his fill of the scottish scene and didn't have the stomach for the much needed revamp thaT WE required after the departure of the king. I also think that this season will see mon & villa go from strength to strength. what the author fails to mention is that in his first season villa were unbeaten for something like 16 games at the start of the season, it was just at times they couldn't buy a win. they were the last unbeaten team in the league.

anyway hail hail mon forever a cellcik legend and thanks putting cellick back in their rightful place, no 1 in scotland.
Posted by: Famous Holte on 7:22pm Tue 13 Nov 07
And its ASTON VILLA
ASTON VILLA FC
Were by far the greatest team
the world has ever seen,
and its ASTON VILLA!!
Posted by: Gabriele Marcotti, London on 10:10pm Tue 13 Nov 07
Where to begin?
Peter in Manchester, I'm not a tipster. If I were, I'd be rich and you'd be working for me. Celtic winning the title that year in such incredible circumstances was one of the most remarkable things in football. I defy you to find anybody who thought that Celtic were going to walk the title that year, given what happened and Henrik's injury and all the rest that they were up against. The fact that there is a minority of sad, sad people who happen to follow Celtic and keep dragging this crap up is rather funny.
Why do you assume I even care about Celtic or Rangers? I don't. I criticize O'Neill when I think he deserves criticism. And I have no problem criticizing people at Rangers.
This is not my battle, this is not my rivalry. As it happens I happen to have been quite close to a former Rangers captain. I am even closer to a guy who captained Celtic. I really like Alex McLeish. But then I also really like Tommy Burns and Peter Grant. So what? Who cares? What does this have to do with anything?
Are you guys really so freaking childish that you think that if anyone criticizes one of your little pets then he has to be a fan of a rival team?
Bottom line: O'Neill is great with the media. That buys him time. If he weren't so good with the media, he would have less time. That's a skill! That's a compliment! How stupid do you have to be to not understand that?
The fact that his start is no better than O'Leary's is an INDISPUTABLE FACT. But it has nothing to do with Celtic. Or Rangers for that matter. It has to do with the job he's doing right now at Villa. And I think it's unremarkable. But hey, maybe I'm wrong. I was wrong about Rangers winning the title seven years ago, right? And I'm sure all you cleverclogs went out and put all your dole money on Celtic to win the title because you WERE SO SURE that O'Neill was going to win in his first season. Well done.
I now know what my friends who support Celtic and Rangers mean they talk about the minority of morons who threaten to give them a bad name.
Barcalator -- watch your back. You never know what's coming. Why don't you post your phone number - if you have one - and we can have a chat?
Posted by: col8, Devon on 1:36am Wed 14 Nov 07
I suspect the O'neill knockers wil be looking for signs of un-happy Villa supporters to lend weight to their "O'Neill is a failure" Campaign.
It could be argued that the facts speak and can not be Ignored. However the team MON took over at Villa Park were one of the worst squads in the Premiership, the time to judge MON will be in 3 years time when all the players are his and the results will be down wholey and soley to him as manager.
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