Martin O’Neill has cultivated the image of a winner but
the statistics suggest otherwise
ACHORUS OF boos rose from the stands at the half-time whistle of Aston Villa's match with Derby County last week. The score was deadlocked and, rather than raising their game, Villa seemed to have dropped it to the level of their relegation-bound opponents.
They scored twice in the second half to win the game 2-0 and, afterwards, Martin O'Neill said all the right things. "If they want to boo, they have every right," he said. "They're the ones paying to watch the game, they are entitled to have their voices heard."
While other managers would have gloated about the fact that they came away with three points (as if that was some kind of proof that the critics were wrong) or criticised that portion of the supporters for "not getting behind the team", O'Neill is far more intelligent than that. He recognised the booing, internalised it and turned it to his - and his club's advantage - earning a whole lot of sympathy along the way.
With Aston Villa in mid-table and the ascendancy of Mark Hughes, O'Neill is no longer automatically hailed as a successor to Sir Alex Ferguson at Old Trafford and even the stream of Brian Clough comparisons has abated a bit.
Yet he remains perhaps the most respected British manager not named Alex and that is probably more down to his handling of the press, playing squad and supporters than his results on the pitch.
Because when you look at the numbers, O'Neill is anything but a rip-roaring success at Villa Park. True, his record in terms of wins, draws and losses (he has won three more games than he has drawn) is better than his two immediate predecessors, David O'Leary and Graham Taylor (who was in his second stint).
But, in terms of points per game, O'Neill's 1.40, places him squarely behind John Gregory (1.66), Brian Little (1.52), Ron Atkinson (1.80) and Taylor's first period in charge (1.62).
Of the eight most recent full-time managerial spells at the club, O'Neill is fifth best. Perhaps more worryingly, his record in his first fifty five games in charge - 19 wins, 20 draws and 16 defeats - is actually worse during the first fifty-five games of David O'Leary's reign. The much ridiculed (by some) Irishman notched 23 wins, 16 draws and 16 losses before the wheels fell off.
With those numbers, it's a good thing that O'Neill is so adept at emanating a winner's image, mostly because it buys him time. And that's crucial in a side where nearly half the likely starting XI - Scott Carson, Nigel Reo-Coker, Ashley Young, Gabriel Agbonlahor and Luke Moore - is aged twenty-three or younger.
Tactically, there have been two hallmarks to the O'Neill regime at Villa Park. The first has been in defence. O'Neill has emphasised size and physical strength above all. His two central defenders - Zat Knight and Martin Laursen - average nearly 6'4" in height (shades of the Stan Varga-Bobo Balde combinations at Celtic Park).
Both his full-backs are primarily defensive. Olef Mellberg - who at 6'1" is nicknamed the man mountain for his bulk as much as his height - is a recycled central defender, Wilfrid Bouma is equally muscular and also had long spells in central defence throughout his career.
Where brawn is privileged in the rearguard, pace, youth and energy are the hallmarks up front with Young, Agbonlahor and Moore. This makes Villa tough away from home (where they have lost just once this season) and against bigger opponents who have the bulk of possession (witness their 2-0 win over Chelsea this season).
O'Neill, of course, also knows how to mix it up by using his big target man John Carew, who is only just returning from injury and could feature this afternoon against Birmingham City.
Whether the O'Neill formula will work its magic again depends on two factors: expectations and execution.
The first is just how the club's owner, Randy Lerner chooses to define success. If it's qualifying for UEFA Cup every year and reaching the odd domestic cup semi-final, then it's attainable. Zat Knight, ever the O'Neill loyalist and a lifelong Villa fan, is a believer.
"Everyone at the club is talking about Europe and I think that's realistic if we can keep our players fit and add to the squad in January," he says.
"If you look at the players we have brought in I think they're a bit of a steal, with the likes of Ashley Young now in the England squad."
Whether Young is indeed a bit of a steal remains to be seen. He cost £9.6m, not exactly chump change. The same can be said of Reo-Coker at £7.5m. Both are young players who may - or may not - end up justifying their fee.
The combined £7.5m spent on Knight himself and Marlon Harewood, two players who - at 27 and 28 respectively - are unlikely to turn into Rio Ferdinand and Wayne Rooney (or even Matthew Upson and Emile Heskey) continues to raise a few eyebrows.
As did O'Neill's insistence on bringing in Celtic wash-outs like Didier Agathe and Chris Sutton last season. (Fortunately there is no indication that he plans on acquiring Bobo Balde at this stage).
But if Lerner's expectation is that O'Neill will build a Villa side capable of breaking into the top four, the signs don't look so promising. And this is where he will have to show his prowess in the transfer market.
Securing goalkeeper Carson is an excellent first step. Liverpool revealed that Villa had taken up the option to buy him for £10m. It's a shrewd move, not least because there is little chance the big four will come along and snatch him away since all either have youngish goalkeepers (Pepe Reina at Liverpool, Petr Cech at Chelsea) or highly touted youngsters waiting in the wings (Ben Foster at Manchester United, Lukasz Fabianski at Arsenal).
Mellberg, whose can leave on a free transfer in June, needs to be sorted out, whether in terms of resigning him or finding a replacement. Given O'Neill's propensity for stockpiling centre-halves (he has two previously highly regarded ones in Curtis Davies and Gary Cahill sitting on the bench) he could turn one of them into a rightback.
The priority however probably ought to be up front. Carew is 28 and injury-prone, just like Moore. Neither is particularly prolific: the Norwegian has four goals in seventeen appearances for Villa, Moore fifteen in ninety-three.
That has been a long-standing problem at Villa Park. They haven't had a striker capable of hitting double figures in the league since 2003-04, when Juan Pablo Angel notched sixteen goals. That was also the only time a Villa striker scored as many as fifteen league goals in the past decade.
Of course, to paraphrase the Rolling Stones (a favourite of Gregory, one of his predecessors), time is on O'Neill's side. The kids will, presumably, continue to improve. And his reputation and PR skills ensure that the media and the fans will be patient.
He may never deliver a spot in the Champions League, but the way things are going, there is a good chance he will last at least until the next World Cup, which would make him the longest-serving Villa manager in the past twenty-five years. Which is better than nothing.